Economic recession expected by end of 2020

[SASKFARMER3]

According to the Duke U. Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Global Business Outlook survey, nearly half of US CFOs expect an economic recession to hit the US economy by the end of 2019. Survey director Campbell Harvey says a tight labour market and growing trade tensions are driving the economic jitters. Harvey also says more than 80% of US CFOs thinks a recession will hit by the end of 2020.

Should farmers fear a recession? After five years of mostly lower farm income, telling farmers to be worried about the economy may seem like an afterthought. But rising anxiety on Wall Street isn’t caused merely by mad money getting a little bit crazier. If history is a guide, that could make it harder for the agricultural sector to recover.

Errol what are your thoughts.

Others what do you think.

Ag in Canada is in a period of adjustment. Land speculators are leaving and farmers are buying at the high end of the scale. Yes, the Huts will be moving and changing. Will some Real big BTOs be gone. Will a bunch of 56 to 46-year-olds say F#$K it was done.

Will Canada be so bad in Debt and lost investment that we can never get back to where we were.

Ontario Is finished way too much debt.

We keep feeding Quebec and what will happen when that gravy train ends.

BC isn't California, they might think they are but not even in the same ballpark.

Alberta is taken so far to its knees that I feel it can't get back up for a long time.

Sask is holding but few more shit show and it's going to fail.

Is it just me or is Canada Finished.

Thank a Trudeau for the first nail and the younger for the final.

Experiments with public office never work.

[bucket]

Agriculture will be fine....just look at AGT foods.....the guy running it has squirreled away 425 million to buy back the company....and found another 100 plus million from the government to fix a used rail line that omnitrax needed 45 million.


CN and CP got a gift of rail cars...that could be paid for in one trip to the coast and yet farmers paid maintenence costs higher that that and never owned SFA in the end.....sort of retarded the way the liberals worked that out....after farmers essentially paid the lease on railcars for 40 years....they didn't get to own them for the buyout....the railways got the offer. ...it would be like leasing a combine and letting the dealership buy it for less than the buyout so they can send it to RBA and make money....

Isn't farming great when the middlemen are the ones considered farmers.....farming the government for tax dollars for shareholders...

[SASKFARMER3]

Well, I do agree with you 100% and really like the comment the Middleman are really farming the gov.

This country is basically going nuts slowly.

Listen to guys discuss the Seed tax.

Middleman wants it.

Gov Wants it.

Some seed growers have been given some money and think it will make them money want it.

Finally, the Farmer who has to pay for it doesnt have a say and doesn't want it.

[bucket]

Well, I do agree with you 100% and really like the comment the Middleman are really farming the gov.

This country is basically going nuts slowly.

Listen to guys discuss the Seed tax.

Middleman wants it.

Gov Wants it.

Some seed growers have been given some money and think it will make them money want it.

Finally, the Farmer who has to pay for it doesnt have a say and doesn't want it.

I paid for the TRIFFID issue.....brought to the farm by breeders and seed growers alike....

It was never to have been a commercial variety....

And the testing was laughable....using a coffee grinder for microscopic tests....and not cleaning or throwing out the coffee grinder after each test....Quantum made a fortune with substandard testing for the industry. ...another middleman added....easily...eventually all grain will need dna testing....

[jazz]

To put it bluntly, some in ag will be finished off. Guys without equity, BTOs who went crazy, young cocky pups who haven't seen the ride before.

One thing about farming is you can change pretty fast compared to many sectors. You can drop land, switch crops, put land into an alternate use etc.

But our markets is what worries me the most. China is going to get revenge on us somehow especially if we extradite that chick and ban their 5G network like all our other allies did which we have to do to please our main trading partner the US. If the world goes to shit, I want to be under their wing anyway. So some main crops could be under pressure like canola.

That's locally, nationally its a different story. Doug Ford will never get that debt under control now. Its a runaway thanks to the liberals. Every little savings he tries to make is met with outrage. He should just turn it over to the NDP and let them finish the job for good. We have to get JT out of there before that happens nationally.

BC has major problems. Rapidly aging, foreign national problems and a housing bubble to boot. AB/Sk has a relatively youngish population.

[SASKFARMER3]

The trifid thing is exactly what I'm scared of. These clowns preach and tell us they will have everything we want and then when something goes wrong we have to clean up the mess.

Farmers are second class in Canada.

Seed growers are blinded by a few pennies extra and the real problem is the Seed companies who sit on advisory boards and tell the gov what to do next.

Were screwed before you even left home that day to attend that meeting it was already planned in advance and they are just going through the motions.

Farmers last in Canada.

Wake up, People.

[Hamloc]

The most interesting quote I saw last week was from your Premier Scott Moe, read it on Facebook. He was commenting on Justin Trudeau's recent year end interview. Premier Moe said(by memory not direct quote) our Prime Minister said that Quebec doesn't want an oil pipeline so there will be no energy east. In Saskatchewan we don't want a carbon tax but one is still being imposed. Funny how Quebec always gets what it wants, as for the west Ottawa does what it wants!

As for a recession it has been 10 years since the last one, certainly Trump's tariff wars are slowing global trade. The problem this time in my opinion is that most countries have accumulated a lot more debt since 2008 and will have little ammo left to battle the next recession.

[macdon02]

Well if the fed raises tomorrow, my best info says expect rates to double in the next year. Im watching 103 and 92 levels on USD for further direction, basically it's going up, how fast will depend on which target it goes for before yr end. Taxes are gonna be our biggest issue issue, along with catching timely rain. There's a giant bullseye on our backs as far as tax goes. The higher rates and higher USD which every govts debt is priced in, are gonna drive the cost of servicing debt through the roof, yes the consumer load up as well but not like govt. Why are rates going up? Because pensions are bleeding because we dropped rates to prevent a recession. Why's USD going up? Well the euro is ****ed, that's 60% of the index. Euro down, USD up. Canada will hang on longer then Europe but sometime before the US goes up in flames, our goose is cooked. Get your house in order, pay off debt, run the old shit another couple years and a guy will be fine. But I think credit is gonna dry up as everyone gets nervous as he'll.

[jazz]

Well if the fed raises tomorrow, my best info says expect rates to double in the next year. Im watching 103 and 92 levels on USD for further direction, basically it's going up, how fast will depend on which target it goes for before yr end. Taxes are gonna be our biggest issue issue, along with catching timely rain. There's a giant bullseye on our backs as far as tax goes. The higher rates and higher USD which every govts debt is priced in, are gonna drive the cost of servicing debt through the roof, yes the consumer load up as well but not like govt. Why are rates going up? Because pensions are bleeding because we dropped rates to prevent a recession. Why's USD going up? Well the euro is ****ed, that's 60% of the index. Euro down, USD up. Canada will hang on longer then Europe but sometime before the US goes up in flames, our goose is cooked. Get your house in order, pay off debt, run the old shit another couple years and a guy will be fine. But I think credit is gonna dry up as everyone gets nervous as he'll.

Macdon I don't know about currencies but if the economy stumbles those rates will be going right back down to 2% again to keep the ponzi going as long as it can.

[15444]

Sounds like a good time. 2 years from now you say. Where can donations of loaded handguns and Molotov cocktails be given for the needy? The spirit of the season has just overtaken me. Fa la la la la

[bucket]

In my little simple head ....of which I have learned I am overqualified to be Prime Minister....the pipelines would be built....as they age they would be taken out of service or found new options to move thru them with little environmental impact....

Quebec is going to have to go along to get along ....it might not be that Alberta or Saskatchewan want to separate but it might be the next time that Quebec wants to leave ....we will say good ****ing riddance...and build around them...

I am not sure with all the ****ing around that a new route hasn't been determined ....through saskatchewan into North Dakota and east through the states...

Quebec ...blackmailing Canada and Trudeau allows it....they all do....we don't matter.

[jazz]

bucket, the patch has a solution right in front of them. Instead of spending billions on new construction here, pool the funds and buy out a major pipeline company in the US that has tidewater access and a ND connction. Problem solved. Why this hasn't been done already I have no clue.

some crazy new construction ideas have been floated like going to Churchill or hanging another pipeline on racks below the Alaska line and running crude backwards. Can you imagine US crude coming in from Alaska to the lower 50 and Canadian crude running north under the same line back to an arctic port to sell to china.

The solution may even be political. Go to trump and say we are going to sell to the Chinese but since you are at war with them, we will not do that provided we get tidewater access out of the US and a higher price for the product in your market. US get energy dominance while kneecapping china.

I should be running this country.

[TOM4CWB]

Watching BNN
An analyst interviewed last week said we are already on our way down... the DOW... Asia already big leg down [30%] One more Fed increase in the US he said was it... likely no more rises of interest rates in 2019...
GM factory closures... Oil co bankruptcies in service sector in western Canada...weak CDN$ is needed... with no more interest rises in Canada... Liberals seem oblivious to crumbling economy in Canada...
For grain...unless big drought... hard to see China buying even historic grain volumes.... with Hogs dying from disease outbreaks...

bucket, the patch has a solution right in front of them. Instead of spending billions on new construction here, pool the funds and buy out a major pipeline company in the US that has tidewater access and a ND connction. Problem solved. Why this hasn't been done already I have no clue.

some crazy new construction ideas have been floated like going to Churchill or hanging another pipeline on racks below the Alaska line and running crude backwards. Can you imagine US crude coming in from Alaska to the lower 50 and Canadian crude running north under the same line back to an arctic port to sell to china.

The solution may even be political. Go to trump and say we are going to sell to the Chinese but since you are at war with them, we will not do that provided we get tidewater access out of the US and a higher price for the product in your market. US get energy dominance while kneecapping china.

I should be running this country.

[bucket]

Watching BNN
An analyst interviewed last week said we are already on our way down... the DOW... Asia already big leg down [30%] One more Fed increase in the US he said was it... likely no more rises of interest rates in 2019...
GM factory closures... Oil co bankruptcies in service sector in western Canada...weak CDN$ is needed... with no more interest rises in Canada... Liberals seem oblivious to crumbling economy in Canada...
For grain...unless big drought... hard to see China buying even historic grain volumes.... with Hogs dying from disease outbreaks...

No worries for you TOM4$$$$$4Himself you have the seed tax coming into effect to backstop any downfalls...


Are your masters dropping seed prices if thats the case???????

[TOM4CWB]

BEIJING: China confirmed two new cases of African swine fever, as the disease continues to spread through the world's largest hog herd, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said late on Sunday (Dec 16) in a statement on its website.
One outbreak occurred on a farm of 210 pigs in Yanting county in the southwestern province of Sichuan, killing 26.
Another case was confirmed in a district of the city of Jixi in the northeastern province of Heilongjiang where 24 pigs died on a farm of 84 pigs

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-confirms-new-african-swine-fever-cases-in-sichuan--heilongjiang-11038730

Watching BNN
An analyst interviewed last week said we are already on our way down... the DOW... Asia already big leg down [30%] One more Fed increase in the US he said was it... likely no more rises of interest rates in 2019...
GM factory closures... Oil co bankruptcies in service sector in western Canada...weak CDN$ is needed... with no more interest rises in Canada... Liberals seem oblivious to crumbling economy in Canada...
For grain...unless big drought... hard to see China buying even historic grain volumes.... with Hogs dying from disease outbreaks...