Crude Collapse / Stock Washout / Deflation / Real Estate Fallout

[errolanderson]

Train-wreck in-progress . . . . February crude breaking below $46 per barrel this morning.

Crude oil is king of commodity markets . . . corn is king of grain markets . . . and U.S. corn usuage for ethanol production is about 30 to 35% of production.

Crude collapse is a direct result of the swift fallout in stock markets. U.S. Fed Reserve appears no longer willing to artificially support equity markets (IMO). The credit/debt bubble beginning-to-implode igniting deflationary pressures across global commodity markets.

But according to central bankers, there is no sign of a recession. Here we go . . . .

[bucket]

Train-wreck in-progress . . . . February crude breaking below $46 per barrel this morning.

Crude oil is king of commodity markets . . . corn is king of grain markets . . . and U.S. corn usuage for ethanol production is about 30 to 35% of production.

Crude collapse is a direct result of the swift fallout in stock markets. U.S. Fed Reserve appears no longer willing to artificially support equity markets (IMO). The credit/debt bubble beginning-to-implode igniting deflationary pressures across global commodity markets.

But according to central bankers, there is no sign of a recession. Here we go . . . .

Why does none of this affect fuel prices Errol???

If its all doom and gloom shouldn't some things start being reduced in price like fuel fertilizer and inputs...

Maybe agriculture will prove who the economic drivers really are....its the guys that spend billions every year.....imagine if farmers said **** it and took a year off...

[burnt]

Why does none of this affect fuel prices Errol???

If its all doom and gloom shouldn't some things start being reduced in price like fuel fertilizer and inputs...

Maybe agriculture will prove who the economic drivers really are....its the guys that spend billions every year.....imagine if farmers said **** it and took a year off...

If only that were feasible.

I would offer that that will never happen because farming is a guaranteed business - meaning that it is guaranteed to continue year after year, regardless of the bottom line, because of the following:

- the land is there

- the mortgage/taxes need to be paid regardless

- the will to produce is ingrained in farmers (pardon the pun)

- farmers are so independent that they will never all band together to enact a stoppage

- list your reason...

So, regardless of how bad it gets, the suppliers and graincos have absolutely no fear of that ever happening.

Unless, of course there would be a total collapse the likes of which one would never want to see or experience.

And that could happen.

[bucket]

If only that were feasible.

I would offer that that will never happen because farming is a guaranteed business - meaning that it is guaranteed to continue year after year, regardless of the bottom line, because of the following:

- the land is there

- the mortgage/taxes need to be paid regardless

- the will to produce is ingrained in farmers (pardon the pun)

- farmers are so independent that they will never all band together to enact a stoppage

- list your reason...

So, regardless of how bad it gets, the suppliers and graincos have absolutely no fear of that ever happening.

Unless, of course there would be a total collapse the likes of which one would never want to see or experience.

And that could happen.

Just need the right personality to lead it....with the common sense to get people to understand...

In the 1970s the government did the LIFT.....today they do it on oil....the results may be rewarding if farmers see the benefit ....

Sadly our farm groups don't think that way...it would be selfish to not produce a crop for sub production cost numbers.....

[farming101]

Western Canada Select is flying high.

After suffering through the disastrous discount of $47 USD/bbl to WTI on Oct 23 and the recent low
of $16.66 CAD/bbl on Nov 13 the price has rebounded spectacularly!

WCS hit $46.83 CAD/bbl on Dec 13.

The discount to WTI is now only $16 USD/bbl

Yesterday WTI was $47.20 USD/bbl and WCS was $42.07 CAD/bbl

[bucket]

Western Canada Select is flying high.

After suffering through the disastrous discount of $47 USD/bbl to WTI on Oct 23 and the recent low
of $16.66 CAD/bbl on Nov 13 the price has rebounded spectacularly!

WCS hit $46.83 CAD/bbl on Dec 13.

The discount to WTI is now only $16 USD/bbl

Yesterday WTI was $47.20 USD/bbl and WCS was $42.07 CAD/bbl

so why the required Handout?????

Lentils have been in the shitter ...off the 40 cent highs in 2015 to current 19 cents and we are told to suck it up and keep producing....

[errolanderson]

Western Canada Select is flying high.

After suffering through the disastrous discount of $47 USD/bbl to WTI on Oct 23 and the recent low
of $16.66 CAD/bbl on Nov 13 the price has rebounded spectacularly!

WCS hit $46.83 CAD/bbl on Dec 13.

The discount to WTI is now only $16 USD/bbl

Yesterday WTI was $47.20 USD/bbl and WCS was $42.07 CAD/bbl

WCS amazing recovery won't hold (IMO). This is a knee-jerk reaction and quite overdone.

[chuckChuck]

Do energy companies sell all their products at spot prices? I don't think so. They likely lock in contracts several months out. Conventional oil often is often fairly low cost to produce in some areas. I have heard as low as $10 CAD per barrel. There will be a range of lift costs.

Sure some oil companies are doing poorly and the oil sands are expensive to produce and prices have been low. But major oil companies are usually diversified across the world and several have retail products to sell. Several were not interested in the Alberta production cuts because they wanted to make a buck off refining.

This is a cyclical industry. Everybody knows it. Get in, get out take your money and run! Its the workers and families who get laid off frequently who bear the brunt of the commodity cycles.

[ajl]

If only that were feasible.

I would offer that that will never happen because farming is a guaranteed business - meaning that it is guaranteed to continue year after year, regardless of the bottom line, because of the following:

- the land is there

- the mortgage/taxes need to be paid regardless

- the will to produce is ingrained in farmers (pardon the pun)

- farmers are so independent that they will never all band together to enact a stoppage

- list your reason...

So, regardless of how bad it gets, the suppliers and graincos have absolutely no fear of that ever happening.

Unless, of course there would be a total collapse the likes of which one would never want to see or experience.
And that could happen.

Farmers do cut back when the bank account is empty and the banker says no to operating lines. Has happened before. There was some land, albeit lower quality, that was without a renter in 2006 before the great inflation. Will see that again in the next couple of years. I remember a land auction in spring 2006 in the Yorkton SK area where the auctioneer was begging for $50K a quarter for cultivated ground.

[farmaholic]

Farmers do cut back when the bank account is empty and the banker says no to operating lines. Has happened before. There was some land, albeit lower quality, that was without a renter in 2006 before the great inflation. Will see that again in the next couple of years. I remember a land auction in spring 2006 in the Yorkton SK area where the auctioneer was begging for $50K a quarter for cultivated ground.

It can't happen again and it won't, because some people said so!

[grassfarmer]

Farmers do cut back when the bank account is empty and the banker says no to operating lines. Has happened before. There was some land, albeit lower quality, that was without a renter in 2006 before the great inflation. Will see that again in the next couple of years. I remember a land auction in spring 2006 in the Yorkton SK area where the auctioneer was begging for $50K a quarter for cultivated ground.

One or two quarters or farms here or there maybe but as burnt says it will never happen on a national scale, and in fact it would have to happen on a global scale to have any effect. Waste of time even talking about it.

[errolanderson]

Stock market bear country . . . .

Reported S&P Index stock fallout from recent highs.

Facebook down 39%
Citigroup down 35%
Apple down 33%
Amazon down 29%
Home Depot down 24%
Walmart down 21%

Central bankers had better get their stories right.
Corporate bankruptcies are set to soar in 2019.

[bucket]

Stock market bear country . . . .

Reported S&P Index stock fallout from recent highs.

Facebook down 39%
Citigroup down 35%
Apple down 33%
Amazon down 29%
Home Depot down 24%
Walmart down 21%

Central bankers had better get their stories right.
Corporate bankruptcies are set to soar in 2019.

Can you post DEERE, CNH, AGCO, NUTRIEN, ANY CHEM CO???????

And maybe a little look into the vaults at federated coop?????

[jimmy]

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If only that were feasible.

I would offer that that will never happen because farming is a guaranteed business - meaning that it is guaranteed to continue year after year, regardless of the bottom line, because of the following:

- the land is there

- the mortgage/taxes need to be paid regardless

- the will to produce is ingrained in farmers (pardon the pun)

- farmers are so independent that they will never all band together to enact a stoppage

- list your reason...




So, regardless of how bad it gets, the suppliers and graincos have absolutely no fear of that ever happening.

Unless, of course there would be a total collapse the likes of which one would never want to see or experience.


And that could happen.

I think it’s more to farmers being in dept and need to make payments then all of the above.

[farmaholic]

What ****en economic value does Facebook and Apple(and the likes) really provide...to me they're "black holes" for money. Can you really consider them creating any "necessary" wealth? But people and companies will continue to pour money into these making them profitable....hardly anything tangible...especially Facebook.