RSF9

[farmaholic]

101, why did(does) the current month adjust higher like it did. Rhetoric?

[beaverdam]

Reflecting immediate demand.

[farming101]

It is the front month but not really the current month.
January is "in delivery" meaning it's winding down and contracts are being squared away, sometimes with unexpected price moves.
Interesting that the CGC report covering the two week holiday period showed ending stocks of canola in the system at 1,090,700 tonnes. I call that pipeline levels for this time of year

[Agvocate]

Jan has 52 contracts of open interest this morning, vs. 114,000 contracts open in the March. Once in delivery and that little open, moves can be dramatic on as little as one contract. Price discovery for nearby would have been March futures for a few weeks now.

[farmaholic]

Apologies for the previous wrong terminology.
I figured the market would be working off March already but this a.m. saw a good swing up in Jan. and wondered why.
Someone get caught short?

I would like to see canola lose it's ball and chain. How much longer before it makes a break for it.

[Guest]

Apologies for the previous wrong terminology.
I figured the market would be working off March already but this a.m. saw a good swing up in Jan. and wondered why.
Someone get caught short?

I would like to see canola lose it's ball and chain. How much longer before it makes a break for it.

Im counting on your 12 bucks !

[Oliver88]

Im counting on your 12 bucks !

I’m thinking a China-USA trade agreement will get Big Pharma and us $12 canola.

[farming101]

Not hopeful right now for $12. A full blown drought by July might do it.

[Guest]

Actually hopin for $11, lol

[farmaholic]

Not hopeful right now for $12. A full blown drought by July might do it.

What other fundamental factors could push it there?

The first two weeks last August had May and July futures fluttering around $525/tonne. $529.10 w/o a basis is $12.

[farming101]

What other fundamental factors could push it there?

The first two weeks last August had May and July futures fluttering around $525/tonne. $529.10 w/o a basis is $12.

No one knew what the crops were going to total at that time. Also EU crop was smaller.
I think it all depends on how 2019 shapes up. Not much else is going to push it to 12.
Producer deliveries could slow for a while supporting prices but it usually doesn't translate into a whole new level higher when it's still in the bin.
Reports are circulating of a smaller Brazil soybean crop. Should help stabilize prices. Argentina's smaller crop last year helped the oilseed complex prices

[Oliver88]

65 cent $ will get us to $12 CDN canola. 😊

[farming101]

65 cent $ will get us to $12 CDN canola. 😊

Could try that. Falling from 78 cents in October didn't have the desired effect.
Also the CAD would have to quit going up first.

[farmaholic]

How many days on a chart before the commodity can be considered range bound? Is May and July there yet?

[makar]

My 35 green canola i cant sell unless i pay for the truck to give it away, good thing most of it is rotting in the field, i am not watching markets much.