China / U.S. Tech War

[errolanderson]

An opinion, but U.S. / China trade war appears now quickly morphing into a technology war.

China’s money supply and volocity is clearly slowing, but not without consequences to the U.S. economy. The world can just watch as these two economic powers slug-it-out. Current talks in China that wrap up today may generate little headway (IMO). But any rose throw toward either side with have a positive, but temporary impact on markets.

Trade damage will take years to repair and the tech Cold War is likely just beginning.
This may continue to present wild swings across global stock markets, while maintaining deflationary pressures on commodities (IMO). No easy fix in-sight . . . .

From a marketing perspective, be prepared to sell into recoveries, as gains may be difficult to hold in this economic environment.

[shtferbrains]

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612421/us-china-quantum-arms-race/

[errolanderson]

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612421/us-china-quantum-arms-race/

China has quickly caught up in technology . . . but will they buy U.S. soybeans? It had better be soon or U.S. markets may again sell-off (IMO) . . . .

[shtferbrains]

This is about a lot more than cheap cell phones;

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/07/a-new-cold-war-has-begun/


That future has arrived, and it is nothing less than a new cold war: The constant, interminable Chinese computer hacks of American warships’ maintenance records, Pentagon personnel records, and so forth constitute war by other means. This situation will last decades and will only get worse, whatever this or that trade deal is struck between smiling Chinese and American presidents in a photo-op that sends financial markets momentarily skyward. The new cold war is permanent because of a host of factors that generals and strategists understand but that many, especially those in the business and financial community who populate Davos, still prefer to deny. And because the U.S.-China relationship is the world’s most crucial—with many second- and third-order effects—a cold war between the two is becoming the negative organizing principle of geopolitics that markets will just have to price in.

This is because the differences between the United States and China are stark and fundamental. They can barely be managed by negotiations and can never really be assuaged.

More;

Regarding the trade talks themselves, what really riles both the Trumpsters and the Democrats (moderates and progressives alike) is the very way China does business: stealing intellectual property, acquiring sensitive technology through business buyouts, fusing public and private sectors so that their companies have an unfair advantage (at least by the mores of a global capitalistic trading system), currency manipulation, and so on. Trade talks, however successful, will never be able to change those fundamentals. China can adjust its business model only at the margins.

And because economic tensions with China will never significantly lessen, they will only inflame the military climate. When a Chinese vessel cut across the bow of an American destroyer, or China denied entry of a U.S. amphibious assault ship to Hong Kong—as happened last fall—this cannot be separated from the atmosphere of charged rhetoric over trade. With the waning of the liberal world order, a more normal historical era of geopolitical rivalry has commenced, and trade tensions are merely accompaniments to such rivalry. In order to understand what is going on, we have to stop artificially separating U.S.-China trade tensions and U.S.-China military tensions.

[westernvicki]

Landing on the far side of the moon, an obvious sign.

[farming101]

Meanwhile my made in China LED 20,000 hour lightbulbs didn't make a year...

[westernvicki]

I have been in China a few times over the years, it has changed dramatically, and the biggest change is housing, infrastructure and technology.
Go & be amazed. You will be glad to come home to space, & pace.

We are the old dog.

And with recent trade issues, we have to hope they still like the old dog.

[errolanderson]

I have been in China a few times over the years, it has changed dramatically, and the biggest change is housing, infrastructure and technology.
Go & be amazed. You will be glad to come home to space, & pace.

We are the old dog.

And with recent trade issues, we have to hope they still like the old dog.

Vicki, coming onto the economic radar screen fast 'n furious is; India.

India's economy may also surpass the U.S. within the next decade. Much lower debt plus young population appear to be key generator of fast growth.