Value -- Decrease or Increase

[jazz]

A local realtor told me that investors are exiting this asset class because the returns haven't met their expectations. These guys were apparently hoping for $150/ac rents and the land doubling every yr.

So its just aging farmers and BTO in there now. Maybe some land around urban populations might have some longer term value. If I had land 100 miles from any major center that has tripled in price I would be worried.

[Horse]

Jazz, Where would you put sask to get ocean access ?? Park it betreew oregon and calafornia,or mabey oregon washington,mabey slide in on the south side of BC ??

[jazz]

Jazz, Where would you put sask to get ocean access ?? Park it betreew oregon and calafornia,or mabey oregon washington,mabey slide in on the south side of BC ??

Rail through ND to the Mississippi, barge to gulf. Second rail to deep port at Churchill.

[Horse]

Those options are all there without (JOING THE USofA)

[farmaholic]

A local realtor told me that investors are exiting this asset class because the returns haven't met their expectations. These guys were apparently hoping for $150/ac rents and the land doubling every yr.

Really?!?! How niave of me to think it could go on forever.

What approach are real estate agents going to use to sell it now? Back to " they're not making anymore".

[jazz]

Really?!?! How niave of me to think it could go on forever.

What approach are real estate agents going to use to sell it now? Back to " they're not making anymore".

They are talking up the 100 bu canola yields coming.

[grassfarmer]

In Europe, the socialist state has put so many regulations on ag that many farmers lent their land for green projects (solar, wind, biomass) collect a check from that and then run a little land for their own sustenance. Europe cant export anything with those kids of costs added on.

Europes only export is BMW and Benz and Volvo cars. WTF else to they produce. Ever see anything made in Britain or France. And they even have massive sea access. How can Canadian landlocked ag survive that model.

Only way is to join the states.

Thankfully Canada as a country has more sense. I can see how those of you with a penchant for made up facts and ignorance of affairs outside our borders would be tempted though.

As a grain farmer in Canada you don't realize France grows more wheat than us? About 30% more the last time I checked.
What does Britain produce? quite a lot actually even in agricultural terms - hell, even Scotland has more sheep than Canada and the US combined.
I don't suppose you realize either that tiny little Scotland has more than twice the oil/gas production that Saskatchewan has (expressed in million tonnes of oil equivalent - so don't even play the "we don't get full value for ours card")

[sk_wheatking]

Thankfully Canada as a country has more sense. I can see how those of you with a penchant for made up facts and ignorance of affairs outside our borders would be tempted though.

As a grain farmer in Canada you don't realize France grows more wheat than us? About 30% more the last time I checked.
What does Britain produce? quite a lot actually even in agricultural terms - hell, even Scotland has more sheep than Canada and the US combined.
I don't suppose you realize either that tiny little Scotland has more than twice the oil/gas production that Saskatchewan has (expressed in million tonnes of oil equivalent - so don't even play the "we don't get full value for ours card")

Wow, why would anyone want to leave that?

[grassfarmer]

That’s a new home nice area

Guess there can't be many of them in Regina then? A great chance to toot your horn and tell us you've got one though! Checking with Real Estate Regina there are only 4 houses listed between $850,000 - $900,000 and another between $900,000 and a $million.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Do I look at this wrong? I don't have $400,000 sitting around to invest, so whatever I invest in needs to cashflow, or have the potential to do so going forward, and that is priority #1. anticipated appreciation in 20 years won't help make payments in the interim, especially if values drop in the mean time before appreciating in 20 years time.

So instead of concerning myself with appreciation, I look at what will be most likely to pay for itself. I don't know much about productivity in your area ( dry, I believe from a previous thread?) , so I probably overestimate pasture potential, but if I could buy 3 to 5 pasture quarters for the same price as 1 quarter of crop land or one house, the pasture would be the no brainer for cashflow. It requires virtually no inputs, upgrades or maintenance to maintain its value, the house will require the most. A tenant can quickly ruin the value of the home, same with lack of maintenance. The house will have bills to pay(large taxes, heat, power, roof/siding/appliance wear and depreciation, style becoming outdated needing renovations, etc.) whether it is occupied and making money or not. The pasture could sit idle and only cost a few dollars in taxes.

As for the crop land, around here in big swamp country, 5 quarters of pasture land will produce at least 5 times as much biomass as 1 quarter of crop land, but maybe not as flexible in potential uses year in and year out, Making the payback on the pasture much faster in theory. I expect it is opposite in your area, or values wouldn't be so far apart. So my input into that argument is likely worth what you paid for it.

Otherwise, a rising tide lifts all boats in the macro economic picture. In more normal times, the annual ROI can quickly swamp the appreciation:

If one investment can give a 3% annual ROI, and the other a 5%, the difference (compounded, assuming it goes back into more land) is $322,000 vs. $661,000 over 20 years. If you can make 10% ROI over 20 years, it is almost 6 times the initial investment. I am calling the last few years of exponential appreciation not normal times, but perhaps I am wrong...

[farmaholic]

AF5, Like. Common sense.

[Taiga]

Wow, why would anyone want to leave that?

Sounds like a dream doesn’t it, he should go back to the motherland and live in bliss and leave the rest of us to grumble about our meagre sheep flocks.

[jazz]

I meant produce, manufacture and export. Europe is a net oil importer as well as uses most of its grain production and livestock products. Maybe wine and cheese.

Give me a consumer item that's not benz, Mercedes or volvo that's on the shelves here. Nokia is dead. Maybe ikea.

Basically all of Europes production is consumed in the common currency zone because no other country in the world can afford it after all the costs have been passed on. Except for the luxury cars.

Only niche products.


Now take a look at what Canada exports, basically everything. if we let socialism take root here we are done. Nobody will buy anything from us. We will have to rely on our biggest export - people.

[malleefarmer]

This figure is possibly a year old and has since declined.

The average price of a house in Australia has risen to $656,800 of course it could well be skewed and talking capital cities. This was basically at the peak in 2016.

2018 decline has been around i think 5 to 8%

Sydney supposedly has 2nd or 3rd highest in the world almost 1 mill.

The origanla question was whats 400k worth in 20 yrs sask said 800 and something not current values.

The pundits seem to think housing could fall another 10 to 15% over next 2 to 3 years scary stuff.

New home approvals and apartment complexes approvals way down in in 2018 all figures coming out now.

Farm land has platued it seems for the moment anyway and yeah its blue ribbon grazing pasture proerties leading the way

[grassfarmer]

I meant produce, manufacture and export. Europe is a net oil importer as well as uses most of its grain production and livestock products. Maybe wine and cheese.

Basically all of Europes production is consumed in the common currency zone because no other country in the world can afford it after all the costs have been passed on. Except for the luxury cars.

Only niche products.

Now take a look at what Canada exports, basically everything. if we let socialism take root here we are done. Nobody will buy anything from us. We will have to rely on our biggest export - people.

It's a totally false narrative you're trying to spin based on false facts. Quit being McCarthy and looking under every bed and step into the real world. French wheat is struggling not because it's too expensive but because the quality isn't high enough for some of it's traditional customers in Africa.

Europe like the US is a huge market and they don't really need to export a lot. It's nothing to do with whether socialism takes root here - Canadian producers will suffer, as they have always done, for being an exporting nation with a low domestic population.