Rate Hikes and Dodo Birds . . . .

[errolanderson]

Irrespective of Trump winning do you think this trade war and resulting reprocussions was inevitable?

Wilton, likely the trade war was inevitable Trump or no Trump. It may have taken a different path.

To me, there is an irreversible global economic power shift in the world over the next 10 to 15 years largely led by the debt crisis that lies ahead.

[errolanderson]

The U.S. Fed is now between a rock and a very hard spot. After grandstanding about multi rate hikes coming in 2019, reducing their balance sheet while ‘normalizing’ rates, late 2018, it appears the opposite may be true . . . .

The U.S. bond market and incoming deflationary pressures are now flashing serious warnings of a fast approaching recession (IMO). This is likely the real reason forcing the Fed to pause. This week, both 2 and 5 year U.S. notes broke below 2.5 percent which may be a wake-up call to central bankers.

The Fed pausing has given temporary, renewed life and to U.S. stock markets in January (IMO). But the bond market begs to differ. This suggests more central bank navel grazing as they have lost control. There is some talk that the Fed may again balloon their balance sheet with renewed QE (money printing). Good grief . . . .

Expect equity market rollercoaster days ahead given this incoming chaotic atmosphere . . . .

[tmyrfield]

The U.S. Fed is now between a rock and a very hard spot. After grandstanding about multi rate hikes coming in 2019, reducing their balance sheet while ‘normalizing’ rates, late 2018, it appears the opposite may be true . . . .

The U.S. bond market and incoming deflationary pressures are now flashing serious warnings of a fast approaching recession (IMO). This is likely the real reason forcing the Fed to pause. This week, both 2 and 5 year U.S. notes broke below 2.5 percent which may be a wake-up call to central bankers.

The Fed pausing has given temporary, renewed life and to U.S. stock markets in January (IMO). But the bond market begs to differ. This suggests more central bank navel grazing as they have lost control. There is some talk that the Fed may again balloon their balance sheet with renewed QE (money printing). Good grief . . . .

Expect equity market rollercoaster days ahead given this incoming chaotic atmosphere . . . .

good news here

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/nonfarm-payrolls-january-2019.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/nonfarm-payrolls-january-2019.html

more good news here
https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669 https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669

even the new york times that bastian of MAGA /sarc

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/02/02/us/politics/ap-us-economy-us-vs-world.html https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/02/02/us/politics/ap-us-economy-us-vs-world.html

sure glad we don't have a leader like Trump here, who could put up with all the winning?

[errolanderson]

good news here

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/nonfarm-payrolls-january-2019.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/nonfarm-payrolls-january-2019.html

more good news here
https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669 https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669

even the new york times that bastian of MAGA /sarc

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/02/02/us/politics/ap-us-economy-us-vs-world.html https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/02/02/us/politics/ap-us-economy-us-vs-world.html


sure glad we don't have a leader like Trump here, who could put up with all the winning?

Thanks tymrfield . . . . no mention of exploding debt or rising bond market risks in any of these press releases. Nobody wants to face-the-boogeyman (IMO).

[tmyrfield]

Thanks tymrfield . . . . no mention of exploding debt or rising bond market risks in any of these press releases. Nobody wants to face-the-boogeyman (IMO).

In USA under Trump
People are working
wages are rising
economy is booming
gas is cheap
interest rates are low
dollar is strong
and after almost 3 years of Fakenews media saying the boogeyman is coming , americans are now thinking that maybe their is no such thing as a boogeyman...

[grassfarmer]

In USA under Trump
People are working
wages are rising
economy is booming
gas is cheap
interest rates are low
dollar is strong
and after almost 3 years of Fakenews media saying the boogeyman is coming , americans are now thinking that maybe their is no such thing as a boogeyman...

And much the same applies to Canada on unemployment, wages, economy etc yet most of you on here choose to portray Trudeau as the bogeyman that's ruining the country. It's all in the perception.

[GDR]

And much the same applies to Canada on unemployment, wages, economy etc yet most of you on here choose to portray Trudeau as the bogeyman that's ruining the country. It's all in the perception.

I agree its pretty much the same situation in both countries. Things are overall pretty good but in both cases it is inspite of the leaders not because of them.

I would suggest most of the influence political parties have takes till either a second term or until a new government is voted in to really affect things much.

[Hamloc]

And much the same applies to Canada on unemployment, wages, economy etc yet most of you on here choose to portray Trudeau as the bogeyman that's ruining the country. It's all in the perception.

So I am curious Grassfarmer does this mean you support everything Justin Trudeau has done and wants to do? As well in both September and November according to Statscan Canada's economy contracted with a .3% uptick in October. Is this your opinion of a growing healthy economy?

[chuckChuck]

Many voters seem to have short memories.

The price of oil and other commodities dropped after a significant high price period. High prices attract investment and increased production, like what has happened in the US and oil.

The commodity boom was highly dependent on China's massive and unsustainable growth. It is not surprising that parts of western Canada which are very dependent on exports of commodities are seeing difficult times.

The hyper partisans always love to blame the politicians even in the face of the reality that politicians don't have much control over the price of commodities.

[furrowtickler]

Its government policy that is kicking western Canada , far to much federal regulation is making the business environment unsustainable.
The economy of Sask was stagnant for most of the NDP reign .... to much government regulation kept most wealth creating businesses away or barely sustainable. Pandering far too much on unions and not the economy.
Liberals are doing kinda the the same nationally now. Pandering far too much on special “groups” and not the economy.
But don’t worry , “the budget will balance itself “ .... money will come from space aliens to pay for it all .. or carbon tax .

Oil price in Alberta is a result of failed political policies from Notley and Peter Pan.
Steam plants in Sask are doing very well right now . But if there is a change in government, that could disappear quickly as well . So is it the price of oil ? Or disastrous government intervention?

The current price of peas and lentils are a direct result of political blunders from the India trip .

It will be a matter of time before our canola market gets thrown under the bus from the Chinese.