Rate Hikes and Dodo Birds . . . .

[jazz]

It will be a matter of time before our canola market gets thrown under the bus from the Chinese.

I am 60% sold on canola, trying to deliver this month.

On March 1, Canada has to decide whether to turn over meng or not. next up they have to decide whether or not to ban Huawei which members of the security group 5 eyes have recommended. Think we are going to piss off our number one trading partner the US. Our china trade is 10% of what goes through the US.

China WILL retaliate. Maybe time to send that expensive seed back. 90% of our canola goes to china.

[ajl]

China has to have a deal with the US so it will sc**** up the last few uncommitted $USD to buy US products in order to make that happen. Therefore it will not have any spare $USD to buy commodities from anyone else. Remember there are $40T worth of mainly $USD denominated debt in China and servicing those loans will take a lot of spare change. I hope the US maintains a tariff on Chinese products so that they have the money to service their own treasuries. A tariff is much preferable to domestic taxation as those Chinese exports have no other home than the US market. China is only about 30% of the canola market but making canola sales now likely a good idea.