Canola Today?!

[ajl]

Been doing this active farming thing for 50 years, land was never cheap or easy to pay for, probably never will be. Saw 16% interest rates in the 80's, and when values decreased nobody would sell for that.

Land was cheap in the early 90's but not easy to pay for which is why is was cheap. Was a huge land auction in southern AB by ADC (Alberta Development Corp-no longer exists today) in 1992. Know of land that sold for 18000 per quarter then. Practically the rent today. Maybe history repeats.

[Herc]

History will repeat itself. When who knows. But hoping for low commodity prices so you can buy land is crazy to me. Careful what you ask for sometimes.

[macdon02]

History will repeat itself. When who knows. But hoping for low commodity prices so you can buy land is crazy to me. Careful what you ask for sometimes.

Im wanting "normalized rates" 2x current. We are in a cycle inversion, what's that? When a seasonal high morphs into a seasonal low, they flip. Normally we rally now after bills are paid into April but instead we are going in the shitter. First clue was back in July, should of been a high but instead produced a low, what's going on now? We are gonna clean the bins out in a panic situation. Basically all the grain in the bin is gonna be held and dumped at a loss compared to selling off combine. Bin it to win it works until it doesn't. Will this change? You bet.... but you are gonna have issues storing 2 crops in the same bins, for over 18 months. No marketing plan works every year.

Disclaimer. Im just a ****ing idiot on the internet

[shtferbrains]

Story is the boats are sitting in harbors in China but can't / won't get unloaded and their crushers are shutting down out of seed.

Delivery contracts here will be delayed because no one wants to ship any more to sit in harbor paying demurage on boat.

[walterm]

Story is the boats are sitting in harbors in China but can't / won't get unloaded and their crushers are shutting down out of seed.

Delivery contracts here will be delayed because no one wants to ship any more to sit in harbor paying demurage on boat.

Why are we paying dumurage sitting over there? Thought all grain was sold FOB.

[furrowtickler]

The boats may be sitting for a long time ....
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-allows-extradition-case-against-huawei-cfo-to-proceed-1.4318709

[farmaholic]

The boats may be sitting for a long time ....
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-allows-extradition-case-against-huawei-cfo-to-proceed-1.4318709

...and the US will give the "pawn" back to China, at Canada's expense, in and for the US's benefit.

...."art of the deal".

[Sheepwheat]

Well I have yet to get a good shot at land anyway so not a lot of networth to drop. Small young farmer, mostly rented acres, forced to have an off-farm job. Which becomes a blessing if there were a pullback. These older/bigger guys buying at 5k-7k/ac have a huge advantage because they have lots of paid off land they bought before the runup. Not that I want anyone to go broke, just would be nice to gain the advantage for a while so I can have a shot at reasonably priced land, same as they had.

I know what you are saying. Most on here won’t. Just the way it is. It made me farm differently. You don’t need acres to equal success, do something different, considerother less stressful options. More than one way to farm. There were MANY times when land was paid for by one ore two crops. It was easy to pay for land with ten crops,easy. Especially for those who never got sucked into shiny iron. That is a fact. But there was less greed then, not everyone “needed” more acres, so the greed and bidding was far less intense. Now,everyone absoutely has to have more acres,and bidding is intense, and frankly makes no economic sense. How many crops to pay for 2000 dollar land even? 5 to 7 is never going to be bought with commodity farming, never. Yet they still buy. Why? So the neighbor doesn’t get it. Because their owned land has an elevated false valuation,so they can leverage to the hilt. Don’t do it, don’t be like them. Now when canola is under ten, panic sets in because the moves they made looks and is scary. Do your own thing, your turn will come. For those of us who 8 dollar canola is still nice and profitable, it is gunna hurt these guys. As you say, not what any of us wants, but really,what the heck were they thinking?

[jazz]

If you think you are going to be the successful one of only land prices would fall 50%, I have news for you, that would be carnage across the industry. I doubt smaller guys felt more successful back in 1980. Why would you want to revisit that?

[Sheepwheat]

If you think you are going to be the successful one of only land prices would fall 50%, I have news for you, that would be carnage across the industry. I doubt smaller guys felt more successful back in 1980. Why would you want to revisit that?

I have my dads income tax returns from the eighties. He was extremely successful with 500 acres. Net income higher than nurses and teachers by a looong shot. Made more in interest income than farming some years. Costs to farm were laughable. The eighties were not all doom and gloom. Most farms around me were made in the eighties, no joke. Careful managers who did not extend themselves stupidly made out like bandits. Those who took on too much risk went broke.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Story is the boats are sitting in harbors in China but can't / won't get unloaded and their crushers are shutting down out of seed.

Delivery contracts here will be delayed because no one wants to ship any more to sit in harbor paying demurage on boat.

So, who wins that game of chicken? I'm guessing that grain in our bins with no market will last longer than pigs in China with no feed?

[Misterjade9]

The pigs in China are dying by the thousands due to Swine Flue, dead ones probably getting fed back to the live ones, so less canola meal needed, and don't think the Chinese government is beyond letting a few hundred thousand people starve to death to prove a point to Canada. Then add the fact that there are twice as many beans in store in the good ole US of A, better get ready for some $8 dollar canola. Time to go ask your input suppliers if they are going to drop the price of their products by 10% this month.