Is it worth growing canola? ???

[jazz]

farma, there was a way to handle it and there still is. They could have handled it at the ticket booth and just told mrs meng she has been diverted to one of our sister carriers, offer a fancy upgrade to cover it all up and drop her at nearest port. Or we could have written her a letter telling her not to land on Canadian soil. Or we could have had treated trump better so he had our back.


Here is how you handle it now. Stall for time until we get the USMCA signed and trump gets his china deal, then send her home, repo her assets here and salvage the trade. US wont care at that time. Who knows if china will even need canola by that time. They are going to buy most of their ag products from the US now.

[furrowtickler]

This political debacle is going to cost western Canadian farmers a fortune add on top of a pending wealth destroying carbon tax on farmers.
Anyone who still says politics has nothing to do with commodity prices needs a swift kick with a frozen rubber boot.
The very day JT got into office most of us here knew it was going to be an economic wipeout in western Canada . His mission from day one was to reset the money funnel back to southern Quebec from the west.
Hopefully he continues to dig a hole so deep we never see this arrogant, self righteous prick ever again come October.
This may take years to regenerate western Canada now.

[farmaholic]

I think she is smart enough to see the diversion as a risk.

Contacting her and telling her not to come here would have been best.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

So, if farmers start cancelling canola seed en masse, due to poor economics, how much leverage would we have? We don't have many other tools to use.

Retailers/seed co's wouldn't be raising prices if demand wasn't there, so if demand falls off a cliff, would they have to lower prices, and same for fertilizer if canola acres get replaced by pulses.

Assuming of course that China is mostly bluffing, and trying to hit us where it hurts, but still does need the product, and that their pig herd isn't so decimated by African Swine Fever that demand really has fallen off that far. Then they will have to come back to the market, if our supply is lower, their machinations to get lower prices will backfire. There really is no other canola exporter capable of taking up the slack.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Any reasonable solutions?

Yes, we start negotiating acceptance into the Union of States south of us immediately. They are the only ones with any leverage in trade negotiations with China, they will win the trade war with China, and China will do as they say if they want to survive as an industrialized exporting nation. There is zero point in being on the outside looking in, our survival depends on being a part of that. Who here has connections with Washington to get the ball rolling?

[jazz]

We have tools at our disposal that are not economic directly. Cancel visas, reduce immigration from those countries, restrict travel, repossess homes owned by foreign nationals. But that would take a leader like trump.

[farmaholic]

We have tools at our disposal that are not economic directly. Cancel visas, reduce immigration from those countries, restrict travel, repossess homes owned by foreign nationals. But that would take a leader like trump.

....and further inflame China. Do we matter? Who needs who more? What is the trade balance?

Remember the old cliche, "Wheat is 13% protein and 87% politics"? What can we say about canola?

Just got a text from a GrainCo that China has suspended/cancelled deliveries of canola to China.

DYODD!!!!!

[shtferbrains]

Need some type of trading pact with Oz,USA, Canada and anyone else that is sick of being bullied around.

Only take about 2 generations to negotiate.

[shtferbrains]

Oz has their own agreement with China but obviously not worth shit

[jazz]

....and further inflame China. Do we matter? Who needs who more? What is the trade balance?

We have more leverage than you think. Not a tone but some. They need an import economy for their junk and we have a few exports to sell to them, mostly ag, potash. Its tiny compared to our trade with the US its just we have a niche product canola that they have been gobbling up. Some tarrifs on potash might be useful. Cut off their ownership in Canadian companies, land ownership. Etc.

Every Canadian should go their church every sunday and thank the US that they take our exports and allow us to integrate into their economy to such a huge amount. We need full alignment with them.