Is it worth growing canola? ???

[furrowtickler]

This has happened before. Canada sent a representative (Harper himself? I cant remember) to China and it was resolved in short order. Agreed the Chinese play dirty. They make these announcements, the price of canola drops $1.00/bushel then they buy the existing compromised shipment and order two more at the lower price. Then they announce they found 40 million tonnes of corn in a quonset somwhere in the middle of the country, lower the corn price until they fill a big order. Rinse and repeat.

Farms around here look in pretty good shape. Drying was an extra cost but they fire up the dryers in August when it is warmer and less expensive to dry. Then they harvest into the dry spells. If not, they still have a lower drying cost than waiting until October/November temperatures and they finish harvest no later than the habitual stragglers.
I dont know enough about their operations to comment on repairs. Most have warrantee on combines and I would guess their repairs are relative to most other operations in the area.

This area was far different than your area hobby . The first snow flattened everything to the ground . That caused 90% of the issues .
Even just two mile east most of the crop stayed standing, was a far different harvest with a lot less grief . We had a bit of both . Some guys had their entire crop flattened . Things don’t dry out very well when 2 in if the ground lol and not every acre was land rolled . Warrentee’s don’t cover rock damage lol , some guys were daily with feeder chains , not fun and no other option to get crop off the ground .
Also caused much lower falling numbers resulting in feed wheat compared to wheat holding grades that was left standing after the 4 snowfalls.
Wheat was close to being ready but second growth prevented much harvest before the snow in this area regardless if one had a super duper drier. If taken off it was feed regardless due to green .
Anyway , every area had its challenges this past fall , and none of us need this current political disaster to make things worse.

[fjlip]

There are likely several reasons those auctions are taking place. Death, bankruptcy, nobody to take over, retirement, divorce...

Agree, but jazz also correct, unless an estate sale, a new line of equipment like in Eatonia Auction, could certainly KILL a farm. One last hurrah riding shiny iron, But there will be a lot of depreciation to swallow. Way less retirement equity for sure. By the amount of good iron and over flowing dealer lots, manufacturers could take a few years off, or slash prices in half.

[hobbyfrmr]

This area was far different than your area hobby . The first snow flattened everything to the ground . That caused 90% of the issues .
Even just two mile east most of the crop stayed standing, was a far different harvest with a lot less grief . We had a bit of both . Some guys had their entire crop flattened . Things don’t dry out very well when 2 in if the ground lol and not every acre was land rolled . Warrentee’s don’t cover rock damage lol , some guys were daily with feeder chains , not fun and no other option to get crop off the ground .
Also caused much lower falling numbers resulting in feed wheat compared to wheat holding grades that was left standing after the 4 snowfalls.
Wheat was close to being ready but second growth prevented much harvest before the snow in this area regardless if one had a super duper drier. If taken off it was feed regardless due to green .
Anyway , every area had its challenges this past fall , and none of us need this current political disaster to make things worse.

I left everything standing.through the first 3 snows. I STARTED harvesting Oct 2. Combined for 2 days and woke up to 4 inches of snow.
After that melted I managed to harvest everything. Im pretty sure I am straight east of you. I note the difference in flat vs. Standing crop.
You guys have to dessicate the second growth. Spray that shit out before it sets seed.
My neighbors farm 20 -30 times more land than I do and they finished. The btrains to the crusher/.elevator deliver everyday steady. It must be enough of a difference to make things better.
Rhetoric and politics still distort markets, nothing has changed in my time. I remember Red Williams going on about GATT and the EU subsidies and not level playing fields. I thought he was a crazy old bastard and we would figure it out as we got at it. Red was right .🙂

[farming101]

May Canola sub 450 today. May see some buying come forward around 440 but am expecting probes below that level in this environment

[farmaholic]

May Canola sub 450 today. May see some buying come forward around 440 but am expecting probes below that level in this environment

"Probes"....not enjoying the "political probes" "below"(taking it up the ass) at all! And to think some of this market fallout could have been avoided.

[WiltonRanch]

May Canola sub 450 today. May see some buying come forward around 440 but am expecting probes below that level in this environment

If it dips below the $440 and stays in the range long enough there will definitely be a shift out. We’re kinda screwed here as nothing else comes close for returns. Speaking from owning most of acres and reasonable enough rent versus other areas, $8-$9 canola was okay when seed was >$40/acre and fuel at $0.70. Not to mention yields being sub 35 bpa even for us spells no profit. My feed reserves are getting a bit low for next year so I’m seriously thinking about growing a bit more feed and grazing some spring seeded stuff. Still think on the better ground a guy should grow canola but the marginal ground a person should really reconsider. I don’t want to put my dick out on the road the way things look now. I can’t afford to sit on crop as long as what I think. By next year if things don’t improve there will be untold hurt. I started farming late 90’s when it was shitty but no one was carrying much debt like today. All I know the cows kept us above water until that deadhead drug that downer cow to town.