The Economy

[jazz]

Havent heard from Errol ins a while but there sure are some ominous signs in the market starting with the inverted yield curve which hasn't happened since 2007.

Now this story that central banks are big buyers of US stocks. The US economy is stronger than most of the world but this is troubling because govt institutions should not own private assets. That's socialism with huge economic risks to us all and inflating the US equity market.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ledbetter-centralbanks-commentary/commentary-are-central-banks-embracing-too-much-risk-idUSKBN1JN1YT Commentary: Are central banks embracing too much risk?

[errolanderson]

Inverted bond market which occurred last Friday is a fairly reliable indicator of an incoming U.S. recession.

3-month bills were trading at 2.44 percent, while the 10-year was at 2.38 percent. The 10-year German bund was actually at negative 0.3 percent.

Stock markets continue to be propt-up by central bank manipulation. Fed may be forced to cut rates later this year as a lifeboat for stock markets. Bank of Canada remains in la-la land suggesting Canada’s economy is strong enough for future rate hikes.

Is there a potential market dust-up this year? . . . you betcha (IMO).

[mcfarms]

This the place where I have been known to jump in and tell Errol hes being his normal negative self and that it isn't going to happen .
Not this time.

[SASKFARMER3]

USA will slow a little next year. Interest rate will stay steady😊

Canada hahahahahaga will continue down the road of a shit show. Thank a liberal

[ajl]

What is interesting here is that the US is the last and only hope of the entire world such that even the Swiss central bank is in the US stock market. Every other nation is a zombie on its way to failed socialist state status. The US is one election mistake away from that status as well so will it manage to pull up or join the rest of us in the toilet bowl? I know Errol's position on this.

[grassfarmer]

USA will slow a little next year. Interest rate will stay steady😊

Canada hahahahahaga will continue down the road of a shit show. Thank a liberal

Thanks SF3!

For all the American fans - you do realize you can move there if it's so great? I can just imagine the crying down the roads if some of you did and Chelsea Clinton was a future President.

[farmaholic]

Thanks SF3!

For all the American fans - you do realize you can move there if it's so great? I can just imagine the crying down the roads if some of you did and Chelsea Clinton was a future President.

Not another family legacy (leader)President. One Trump will be enough too!

[SASKFARMER3]

Chelsea Clinton woundnt get through the first round to get the nomination.

I love the USA I think they love their country and will fight to the death for it. Millennials well that’s another story, we’re all equal participation badges for all.

Canada has turned into the shit show that trump talked about.

Keep telling us how great trudeau is boys.

Hahahah

[jazz]

It wont matter who the next president after trump is. He will have set the country on the right path for the next 100 yrs and no democrat will be able to derail it. meantime, Canada will fail, socially, economically and politically. Its baked in. I would say a US green card is the best investment you can give your kids.

[ajl]

Thanks SF3!

For all the American fans - you do realize you can move there if it's so great? I can just imagine the crying down the roads if some of you did and Chelsea Clinton was a future President.

For most of us, immigrating to the US would involve an investment of $1000000 US that would result in either the creation of 10 full time equivalent jobs or the saving of 10 jobs if in a business that is on its last legs. In rural areas that number drops to $500000. Otherwise you need to be qualified to get a job in a specialized field and have an employer sponsor you. A class 1 license in some areas may be enough ie Texas oilfield. Otherwise US immigration is a very long line with no guarantees. You can be sponsored by family as well. I do know a cousin to my wife who moved south a couple years ago along with their kids but his wife is a US citizen. As far as I know, there are no plans to come back.

[errolanderson]

In just five (5) trading days last week, recession jitters exploded stateside. Two weeks ago, there was apparently no recession risk in the U.S., now economic hell may be unleashed according to some analysts.

An opinion, but the U.S. Fed and BOC are doing a poor job sending signals to the market. Money printing has built this enormous credit and asset bubble problem. Keynes economics (which central bankers thrive on) has been a bust in my opinion and made the global economic situation far worse given the 'too big to fail' policy was adopted in the financial crisis of 2008.

This economic mess has now become far messier due to inept central bank policy which will now cost the next generation. Can kicking days are definitely over (IMO) . . . .

[AlbertaFarmer5]

This economic mess has now become far messier due to inept central bank policy which will now cost the next generation. Can kicking days are definitely over (IMO) . . . .

Do a quick google search of kicking the can regarding the US economic situation. They have been successfully doing so for decades, and pundits have been claiming that it can't happen any longer for just as long. Just like betting against the US economy has been a losing proposition almost forever.

[biglentil]

It's not so rosy when you look past the inflated stock market bubble. This is an excerpt from the Washington post dated May 25th:

In the past week, two reports — a new Federal Reserve*survey*of more than 12,200 Americans about their finances and a new United Way*report*on financial hardship — reveal just how*unstable life remains for a large number of people.*Here's a rundown of the key findings:

Forty percent of American adults don't have enough savings to cover*a $400 emergency expense such as an unexpected medical bill, car problem or home repair.Forty-three percent of households can't afford the basics to live, meaning they aren't earning enough to cover the combined costs of housing, food, child care, health care, transportation and a cellphone, according to the United Way study. Researchers looked at the data by county to adjust for lower costs in some parts of the country.More than a quarter of adults skipped necessary medical care last year because they couldn't afford it.Twenty-two percent of adults aren't able to pay all of their bills every month.Only 38 percent of non-retired Americans think their retirement savings is “on track.”Only 65 percent of African Americans and 66 percent of Hispanics say they are “doing okay” financially vs. 77 percent of whites.

[15444]

It's not so rosy when you look past the inflated stock market bubble. This is an excerpt from the Washington post dated May 25th:

In the past week, two reports — a new Federal Reserve*survey*of more than 12,200 Americans about their finances and a new United Way*report*on financial hardship — reveal just how*unstable life remains for a large number of people.*Here's a rundown of the key findings:

Forty percent of American adults don't have enough savings to cover*a $400 emergency expense such as an unexpected medical bill, car problem or home repair.Forty-three percent of households can't afford the basics to live, meaning they aren't earning enough to cover the combined costs of housing, food, child care, health care, transportation and a cellphone, according to the United Way study. Researchers looked at the data by county to adjust for lower costs in some parts of the country.More than a quarter of adults skipped necessary medical care last year because they couldn't afford it.Twenty-two percent of adults aren't able to pay all of their bills every month.Only 38 percent of non-retired Americans think their retirement savings is “on track.”Only 65 percent of African Americans and 66 percent of Hispanics say they are “doing okay” financially vs. 77 percent of whites.

Notice how a cell phone is a basic necessity? Easy to tell that it is dirty UW socialist propaganda.

[errolanderson]

Europe's economy appears sliding-into-darkness. Germany's 10-year sovereign bond yields now below that of Japan's 10-year. Turkey financial woes worsening . . . apt to re-appear in the news.