Flooding in the U. S. Is it a non event to markets.

[grefer]

I was reading days back about the unprecedented flooding in the US. Is this a non event as far as the grain markets are concerned. The reason I ask is I subscribe to an email newsletter that Grainmillers sends out weekly. Not one mention today of lost grain in storage or possibly acres too wet to seed. Strange. If the US even has potential of more acres or more production it is always brought to the attention of producers in this email. It states in the email that even though US producers intent to seed 7 percent less acres of oats the production shortfall will be more than made up by Canadian producers. Hmmm. Let's talk down the market IMO.

[bigzee]

The bearish US report today pretty much says it all. I can’t remember a spring where there has been such low optimism. Monday at 12:01 am might just be the final nail in the coffin.

[grassfarmer]

From reports I read lots of US farmers were sitting on piles of inventory they wouldn't normally have due to Trumps trade wars so maybe there is plenty supply left to cover the losses in a relatively small part of US farm country?

[bigzee]

From reports I read lots of US farmers were sitting on piles of inventory they wouldn't normally have due to Trumps trade wars so maybe there is plenty supply left to cover the losses in a relatively small part of US farm country?

Some here are sitting with piles of inventory. Prices weren’t good enough the last couple years so let’s hold for lower prices which we have now.
If this canola thing doesn’t get straightened out by the time new crop enters prices today will look good.

[mcfarms]

One report I saw says a million calves were lost, that will for sure have an impact on feed useage and beef prices if accurate.

[chuckChuck]

This is a very stressful situation for a lot of farmers. Farming is stressful enough in the good times let alone when markets are in chaos.

Trump made it clear that the the US was going to put the US first and to hell with other countries. Nobody wins in a trade war and a lot of people lose. American farmers are worse off now. Canadian farmers are just collateral damage. China has a lot of economic power and they are not afraid to use it.

Gabe Brown suggests that farmers get a better understanding of their crop nutrient requirements as a healthy soil requires less fertilizer. Well farmers may not be able to do much about low commodity prices, they can do something about their cost of production.

Every farm is different and most farmers know their own farms and soils better than anyone, but maybe there is an opportunity to cut back on fertilizer rates and still get a good yield? Gabe Brown's experience suggest this is possible.

Farmers have really increased their cost of production since the 1970s. Zero tillage and continuous croping have been very successful in terms of yields and increased production. But it has come with a lot of inputs that puts a lot of financial risk on farms when low prices and lower yields occur.

[ajl]

I think Friday's price action is overdone, since they will never plant that much corn due to wet weather in the western corn belt. US farmers are equipped to plant in a week so most, but not all them will get in. There will be a bounce in corn and wheat prices next week. Wheat exports will trend higher in the short term as both Europe and Australia had a short crop last year and they will decline in exportable stocks until new crop. Oil seeds I am more bearish as they are more dependent on China's faltering economy. As well there will be some switching to soy from corn due to planting delays and hopefully there will be some prevented plant all together this year as well. A small amount of inventory was destroyed which also helps at the margin. I doubt the million cattle and calves figure since that is just a number thrown out there and ranchers are very resourceful resourceful, but don't doubt that there was significant loss for some. All in all 2019 looks dismal for crop sales and somewhat more bullish I think for cattle and hogs but there are some silver linings out there. I just hope there is a significant moving away from canola acres here at home.