Sask Gov's request to up CCGA advance

[farmaholic]

I still think the decline in prices are because of politics more than anything, slamming the door "COMPLETELY" closed to imports was politically motivated, nothing else.

There may less Chinese demand but I doubt there is none!

Nobody in China cooks with canola oil anymore?

[jazz]

I still think the decline in prices are because of politics more than anything, slamming the door "COMPLETELY" closed to imports was politically motivated, nothing else.

There may less Chinese demand but I doubt there is none!

Nobody in China cooks with canola oil anymore?

farma they have been stockpiling it so who knows what their real demand even is. Who can tell in a closed society like that. markets are about information on supply and demand and we cant even gauge what theirs really is. That would be a bad signal for any investor. Maybe they expect a price crash to come in as an even bigger buyer in a yrs time at a few bucks less. We have no idea.

What happened to the TPP and CEP which were going to take up some of our production?

Even if we give that woman back and allow Huewai in here that's no guarantee they will be buyers. They can halt canola purchases in a heartbeat but once that 5G tech is imbedded in our communications backbone, we will be wed to it forever. Sometimes with china the most obvious thing is not really what it is. Maybe taking western imports is just a pretense to get their products in here.

[bucket]

How does what we think the price should be actually allow us to set the price? Why not then just set the price to 15$ a bushel? Don't you think that maybe that is the delusional part?

What is delusional is watching Evraz get 40 million and Bourgault using their seconds to make drills out of at 750k plus for a drill.

All subsidized...meanwhile farmers get a price for their product in Canada based off a subsidized market in the US...

Its all idiotic and guys that say the markets work in Canada are truly ****ed in the head because the US farmer enjoyed a 1.65USD (2.20cdn) on their soybeans from the government....

[Guest]

Guys WD is right, although a little coarse in his opinion. I bet dollars to donuts china isn't coming back to thus market like they have been. The numbers don't support it from their hog problems to slowing economy to potentially new exclusive deal with trump. Add in the threat mentioned from much lower 3rd world production costs and our system will need a radical overhaul. Our COP has to come down. There is no way to out yield or out grocery this problem or spread costs over a larger land base.

I agree
Thats the point i was trying to make
The party is over
There is nowhere to tighten anymore except inputs. Which will cut production which will really hurt the sector living off farmers

[wd9]

What is delusional is watching Evraz get 40 million and Bourgault using their seconds to make drills out of at 750k plus for a drill.

All subsidized...meanwhile farmers get a price for their product in Canada based off a subsidized market in the US...

Its all idiotic and guys that say the markets work in Canada are truly ****ed in the head because the US farmer enjoyed a 1.65USD (2.20cdn) on their soybeans from the government....

I completely agree, its not fair. But it is our mess we have to run a business in. Sorry for being coarse, but holy shit, its time to start facing reality and come up with solutions for your own operation on how to remain viable. Hint, it isn't by buying that 750k drill.

That 1.65 gets absorbed by everyone else and the US farmer only ends up with higher risk, higher rents, higher machine cost, higher inputs higher.....

[bucket]

I completely agree, its not fair. But it is our mess we have to run a business in. Sorry for being coarse, but holy shit, its time to start facing reality and come up with solutions for your own operation on how to remain viable. Hint, it isn't by buying that 750k drill.

Sure I understand what you are saying and I don't own an expensive drill or new equipment...but when inputs are outrageous how does one go forward....

[sk_wheatking]

Local Pioneer Richardson, Oct 30 closing price on nearest month was 10.50. Yesterday posted closing price was $10.19, buyer said that offers 10.25 or higher than that were being picked up during the day. Hardly the catastrophe everyone is making it out to be.

I would say that at today's expense to operate any reasonable grain operation with canola in your rotation, 10.19 is definitely a catastrophe. Just the risk alone, is worth more than that!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I completely agree, its not fair. But it is our mess we have to run a business in. Sorry for being coarse, but holy shit, its time to start facing reality and come up with solutions for your own operation on how to remain viable. Hint, it isn't by buying that 750k drill.

That 1.65 gets absorbed by everyone else and the US farmer only ends up with higher risk, higher rents, higher machine cost, higher inputs higher.....

And on top of all that, I still haven't figured out how obscuring the market signals which were trying to discourage production, by paying farmers per bushel produced, which will encourage more production, is going to solve any long term problem of excess production weighing on prices.

Isn't that just making the problem bigger further down the road?

[jazz]

Hint, it isn't by buying that 750k drill.

Nope its going to be true diversification, lower inputs through more cover crops, hay, feed grains, possibly intercropping or even idling land and farmers owning something other than just ag. We are way too concentrated in a single asset class. People with spare money shouldn't just get more iron and dirt everytime, they should buy something in a different asset class all together.

I sold a quarter this spring and bought into the stock market. 5% dividend is just about what I would make trying to grow canola off that quarter. Was time to unload it, now I have income from a different source.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Sure I understand what you are saying and I don't own an expensive drill or new equipment...but when inputs are outrageous how does one go forward....

Ask Hobbyfarmer and Austranada. Eliminating inputs seems to be working.

[sk_wheatking]

Myself and many others on this forum have been saying it for years. Why in the hell is the government not building biodiesel and ethanol plants. I mean christ it's all about let's get rid of fossil fuel, its zero emissions we need alternative energy, but they wont do anything about it. They could save an entire industry with one announcement tomorrow. Mandate those fuels to a high percentage and announced plants to construct. But you would have to be thinking to the future for that. These politicians are all your friends until they get into power then their give a **** level goes to 0. Now, if its social issues for drugs, alcohol, treaties or refugees well look out, they have all the funds available.

[wd9]

I would say that at today's expense to operate any reasonable grain operation with canola in your rotation, 10.19 is definitely a catastrophe. Just the risk alone, is worth more than that!

Then you need to adjust today's expenses. Does putting on twice as much fertilizer on as required and then 2 passes of fungicide from the excessive growth make any sense other then your input supplier's bottom line? It's a quadratic or Mitschlerich curve, not a straight line. Time to get back to fundamentals.

I wish farm research organizations would get back on the net to farmer bus, not producing more bus which really benefits everyone but the farmer.

[Klause]

Guys WD is right, although a little coarse in his opinion. I bet dollars to donuts china isn't coming back to thus market like they have been. The numbers don't support it from their hog problems to slowing economy to potentially new exclusive deal with trump. Add in the threat mentioned from much lower 3rd world production costs and our system will need a radical overhaul. Our COP has to come down. There is no way to out yield or out grocery this problem or spread costs over a larger land base.

Yup. Agreed.



Also go check out the price for canola on the Matiff exchange.

XRX19 is Nov futures. Priced in Euro so multiply by 1.5

Currently $543/Mt or $12.31 a bushel CAD

[jazz]

Again sometimes farmers are our own worst enemies. I know guys that rented the entire world but would not buy anything no matter what. Instead of focusing on a few thousand owned acres that they could build up equity on, they ran all over the country trying to squeak $50 an acre over a huge rented land base. I know a few guys who run like that an their entire operation is all hired workers, no family.

They guys who bought and built up some owned acres are in a position to cut costs if they want to. The new pardign will wont be running over thousands of acres as fast as you can, it will be more intensive management on few acres. And when I say more intensive management, that's not more groceries or passes with the sprayer. it will be more things like integrated tillage, cover crops, intercropping maybe some organic in there. Stuff that takes more time per acre but has potentially higher returns per acre.

[jazz]

Real out of the box thinking is what is needed.

In the FCC express magazine a few yrs ago, there was a guy who grew a forage on some land, cut it, chopped it up and then used some sort of a spreader to spread it over another field where he grew crops. I was thinking that was an interesting idea and then that forage field could be broken up in a couple yrs and certified organic for a couple yrs.