Canola acres

[Hopalong]

See local elevator bid of $10 a bushel or better for new crop canola.
Here in black soil zone, think it makes sense to continue with canola as a major crop.
Remember a time when not much ****seed was grown in brown soil zone.
Past few years have crop insurance yields higher on brown soils.
Partly due to direct seeding and moisture conservation but also series of wetter years.
Expect a return to series of dry years at some point.
Would expect to maintain canola acres unless futures prices fall.

[poorboy]

Expect a return to series of dry years at some point.

In Southern Alberta the dry years returned 2 seasons ago.

The problem is nothing looks good for this year. Too many acres of barley is going to tank the barley price. Wheat prices are already dropping from the anticipated acre increase. Pulse crop prices suck and don't appear any better. Right now Canola does not really look any worse than any other crop.

[helmsdale]

In Southern Alberta the dry years returned 2 seasons ago.

The problem is nothing looks good for this year. Too many acres of barley is going to tank the barley price. Wheat prices are already dropping from the anticipated acre increase. Pulse crop prices suck and don't appear any better. Right now Canola does not really look any worse than any other crop.

Same feeling's I have. Bills have to be paid, and canola has been the go to for so many years, and it's going to be hard for guys to shake that mentality especially when they look at every other commodity out there and see what you can lock in.

Sure it'll be a gamble that markets will open, or at the least it wont get any worse, but is it much different for anything else?

Compared to 5 years ago, pulse prices suck, durum sucks, specialties suck, wheat looking forward says its going to join the suck, so how else to pay the big rent, big land payments, new paint, etc?

Take the last 10 years out of the equation, and are commodity prices really that far from long term trends? Canola around the 10 mark, wheat and durum in the 6's, peas in the high 6's, low 7's, etc etc.

[countryguy]

Same feeling's I have. Bills have to be paid, and canola has been the go to for so many years, and it's going to be hard for guys to shake that mentality especially when they look at every other commodity out there and see what you can lock in.

Sure it'll be a gamble that markets will open, or at the least it wont get any worse, but is it much different for anything else?

Compared to 5 years ago, pulse prices suck, durum sucks, specialties suck, wheat looking forward says its going to join the suck, so how else to pay the big rent, big land payments, new paint, etc?

Take the last 10 years out of the equation, and are commodity prices really that far from long term trends? Canola around the 10 mark, wheat and durum in the 6's, peas in the high 6's, low 7's, etc etc.

True but you also have to look at the input side of things at the same time.

[farmaholic]

Same feeling's I have. Bills have to be paid, and canola has been the go to for so many years, and it's going to be hard for guys to shake that mentality especially when they look at every other commodity out there and see what you can lock in.

Sure it'll be a gamble that markets will open, or at the least it wont get any worse, but is it much different for anything else?

Compared to 5 years ago, pulse prices suck, durum sucks, specialties suck, wheat looking forward says its going to join the suck, so how else to pay the big rent, big land payments, new paint, etc?

Take the last 10 years out of the equation, and are commodity prices really that far from long term trends? Canola around the 10 mark, wheat and durum in the 6's, peas in the high 6's, low 7's, etc etc.

Minus the last ten years, are goods and services needed to produce a crop priced at the long term trends....my friend?!?!?

[Partners]

Net return might be close for all crops..
Pick the ones you want to grow..
Margins might be super thin.
So farmers borrowing for all inputs will need a real sharp pencil..

[furrowtickler]

Net return might be close for all crops..
Pick the ones you want to grow..
Margins might be super thin.
So farmers borrowing for all inputs will need a real sharp pencil..

And a lot of luck with timely rains

[SASKFARMER3]

I still think there is something bigger than the Chinese that is coming for ag in Canada and if Trudeau is looking like another four years all hell will break out in Ag. Other places aren't happy with us also.

The shine has come off on Trudeau and Canada.

Yes, locking in $10 is money.

Dropping a 1000 acres to straighten a rotation and going for good yields on those acres is almost the same as trying to get over 5000.

So yes were dropping back but the acres seeded will get all the gold.

[bigzee]

I still think there is something bigger than the Chinese that is coming for ag in Canada and if Trudeau is looking like another four years all hell will break out in Ag. Other places aren't happy with us also.

The shine has come off on Trudeau and Canada.

Yes, locking in $10 is money.

Dropping a 1000 acres to straighten a rotation and going for good yields on those acres is almost the same as trying to get over 5000.

So yes were dropping back but the acres seeded will get all the gold.

.

Go for gold all the way, at the end we will all be getting participation pins.

[Misterjade9]

Today I left here in the morning and went straight south to Sintaluta to look at some drills. It was winter here 1.5" of new snow from our blizzard yesterday, wet and soggy to Foam Lake, started to dry up as we neared Ituna, and south of Ituna all the way to Sintaluta it was like summer, a completely different province. Unless there is some rain it will be drier than a popcorn fart down there. So here is my word from the wise, all you guys south and west of number 16 just leave the canola growing to us guys up here in the NE and all will be fine.

[helmsdale]

Minus the last ten years, are goods and services needed to produce a crop priced at the long term trends....my friend?!?!?

The last 15 years or so have been the friend of many a balance sheet... whether they will turn out to be friends of yours, mine, and many others for much longer is uncertain.

Many bet that it was a new trendline. But taken over a longer timetable, the trend has most certainly not been our friend. Long term commodity deflation in real terms, and at best, steady input prices in real terms taken over say the last 25 or even the last 50, would seem to show the last 15 have been only an abberation.

But then again:
- they're not making any new land...
- the population is growing rapidly...
- and it's becoming more affluent...

[SASKFARMER3]

Another 1/4 inch rain over the weekend so were at a 1/2 in this spring South of 16 to the Valley. South of valley drier.

Guys south of 16 will not be pushing the envelope and do Canola on Canola. North might but then look where all the Club root is.