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    #1

    Barley Exports?

    Charlie AAFC has barley exports pegged at 2.5 MMT this year. CGC has us at just over 500,000 MT at week 23. Where does AAFC get there forecast numbers from? Do they talk tot the CWB to get ideas? Did or does the CWB ever give forecasted export numbers for wheat and barley? If so what was there number for barley this year?
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    #2
    Rain;

    I have heard the 1 mmt number tossed around for feed barley exports by the CWB this crop year.

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      #3
      Tom did the CWB say anything about tonnes of Malt Barley? If they talked 1.5 MMT of malt I will feel better. I do not like the idea of 2.5-3MMT barley carryout this year.

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        #4
        I (like you) think the CWB will be a stuggle to hit 2.65 MMT. 650,000 tonnes of this is malt product exports. The 2 MMT is likely divided (should ask) between feed and malt barley. China has not been a big buyer of malt barley this year. I also think the CWB will struggle to get feed barley deliveries from here on in. My guess is the export number will be closer to 2 MMT (including malt product). Domestic disappearance of 9 to 9.5 MMT (Feed 8.5 to 9 MMT, seed 450,000 t and domestic malt product 350,000 t). I will use the upcoming Statscan stocks report to judge this). Total supplies 13.8 MMT. Carryover July 31, 2004 somewhere around 2.5 MMT.

        My issues on feed barley will be the pattern of heavy feeder movement to feedlots/on farm feeding this spring summer and weather this summer/impact yield potential. on the former, there are going to be to many people this spring who need money to put in crop and are long both feed barley and 800/850 weight calves. Price has to break lower on one of these two commodities.

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          #5
          Charlie;

          We just sold Feed barley on a 90%EPO Edm. (ATL)$2.35/BU MINIMUM (in our pocket)with the upside being the PRO@$16/t more if the CWB can come through to the $159 Dec PRO.

          With corn being as short as it is, Barley being non-GMO, the EU short of feed grains... I think you under estimate how much barley could be exported.

          Further, this year the CWB is finally getting high quality barley... which will make getting a premium price much easier (for CWB merchants) than when everyone shoveled the CWB their crap... as a refuge of last resort for junk barley.

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            #6
            Charlie;

            I just went over the 90% EPO#'s on the feed barley... the premium cost is $1.00/t, but a refund of $.65/t in incremental payment for March delivery (our expected shipping period) leaving a total cost of just $.35/t or .8 of a cent per bushel EPO cost.

            Now what does that tell us about how bullish the CWB is on the Feed Barley PRO and pool? ZERO risk @ $143.10/t.

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              #7
              Charlie;

              I see at Saskatoon Adrian Measner projected 2 mmt of barley exports... 600,000t feed Bly already contracted as of report last week.

              I am not sure many know about the 90%EPO being free... and since $10/t premium is being offered by most CWB merchants... this brings CWB feed bly to within $9/t of 6 R Malt.

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                #8
                How many others are seeing the $10/t premium?

                Just checked out current barley prices at Portland. Current $5.80/CWT (Cdn $166/tonne Fob/loaded vessel and closer to $156/tonne in store terminal. My thoughts are there is not a lot of upside to the feed barley market - particularly in view of the ocean freight rates which continue to increase.

                What are others thoughts?

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                  #9
                  Tom what region are you. You are along the AB/Sask border right. I am more concerned with the lack of movement of barley according to the CGC weekly numbers. We need to ship about 69,000 tonne a week til the end of the crop year. Tom did you take the gauranteed delivery with the 90% EPO?

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                    #10
                    Rain;

                    "We just sold Feed barley on a 90%EPO Edm. (ATL) $2.35/BU MINIMUM (in our pocket)with the upside being the PRO@$16/t more..."

                    Agricore United was offering the same deal in Edmonton.

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                      #11
                      Charlie;

                      Isn't it amazing that the non-board market the year after a CWB deficit will not pay any premium to what the CWB pays cash.

                      Feed Barley and CPS/low px CWRS wheat are a perfect examples right now. 90% EPO's are really netting the CWB large amounts of grain... and the CWB Merchants are making good money.

                      In a year when the domestic feed grain market is in depression... a transparent export outlet is critical to a grain farmer's existance.

                      If we had a export cash feed barley market... the CWB could have had double the signup into the export market...
                      as Sept 03 CWB sales were netting close to $3.00 farm gate Edm. I was told. We were offered the exact same $10/t premium in our Sept shipment as well.
                      With unit trains/shuttle trains terminals can offer this premium and still make a good profit!

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