Oil and Gas sector jobs

[grassfarmer]

Here is a little reality check ahead of the upcoming AB election. Not that it will change much as Albertans tend to operate on an ideology is fixed, facts are negotiable basis. (Red jobs under PCs, green are jobs under NDP - black line in WTI oil price.

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[Guest]

The liberal “stop free speech” team must have edited you ?

[chuckChuck]

No Alberta Premier Can Bring Back Oilsands Boom, Experts Say
The world has changed, one analyst says.

Bob Weber
Canadian Press

EDMONTON — Getting Alberta's economy running on all its fossil-fuel-powered cylinders is at the heart of the province's election campaign.

But some of Canada's top energy thinkers — as well as international experts — warn there's no pedal any premier can stomp to make that engine rev like it used to.

"No policy of any Alberta government can change things," said Mark Jaccard, an energy economist at B.C.'s Simon Fraser University, who has advised governments on climate policy and helps write reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

"If Albertans are unwilling to accept a steady oilsands output, with the resulting employment, I fear for them."

The University of Manitoba's Vaclav Smil, one of Canada's most widely quoted energy analysts, said any move to renewable energy will take decades, not years. The transition, however, may be felt sooner.

"All energy transitions are slow," he said. "Oil will be with us for decades to come — but not necessarily with high annual growth rates."

The world has changed, said Andrew Grant of the London-based research group Carbon Tracker.

"Companies (are) much more reluctant to invest capital in projects that require very, very high capital outlay and take years and years to pay back. That encapsulates the oilsands."

Grant's group has recently published research suggesting that while renewables are still small, they play a big role in meeting new demand.

Solar and wind power provide three per cent of global energy demand, the report said. But between them they account for a quarter of all new generation.

It said that by early next decade, power from solar and wind is expected to be as cheap or cheaper than fossil fuels anywhere in the world. Since 2012, more new power generation has come from renewables than fossil fuels.

High-cost fossil fuels will become less attractive investments, Grant said. Even without carbon pricing, his group expects fossil fuel demand to peak early next decade.

"It's not necessarily that the change to renewables will be quick," he said. "But it's quick enough to make up all of the growth in future energy demand fairly soon."

The same logic applies to transportation. A tiny fraction of the world's cars are electric, but they make up 22 per cent of growth in sales.

Jaccard has run the numbers.

In a paper published last year, he concluded that if the world honours its pledge to keep global warming under two degrees Celsius, there's less than a five per cent chance that new oilsands investment — including pipelines — will be profitable over the next 30 years.

"When the global demand for oil stabilizes and starts to fall, Alberta will be hit first," he said. "It's (oilsands) among the highest emissions per barrel with the highest production costs."

Nor is the oilpatch as job-rich as it once was.

Between 2014 and 2016, production grew by nearly 10 per cent, but 39,000 fewer people were employed. "Albertan oil output increased over the last four years while the jobs were lost," Jaccard said.

Not everyone is as convinced the oilsands have had their day.

The International Energy Agency forecasts slightly increased oil demand — about six per cent — through 2040.

Smil said global energy transitions have always been slow. It took coal 60 years to go from five to 50 per cent of the world's energy supply.

Grant agrees the current oilsands will make money for years. But the bitumen-fuelled booms that haunt Alberta's memory and its politics may be a thing of the past.

"They're very high-cost, capital-intensive projects," he said. "Why would you invest in that when oil prices have been so volatile and there are demand threats on the horizon?

"I don't think any sort of additional pipeline capacity can get around that issue."

[chuckChuck]

Many voters have short memories. World supply and demand caused oil prices to fall. The USA has increased production and needs less Canadian oil. These are the major factors driving the downturn in Alberta oil. Lack of pipeline access to other markets is also a factor. But the US has trouble building pipelines as well. Oil has always been a boom and bust industry. The booms predictably don't last as high prices attract increased supplies. That is the way the market works.

[farming101]

Futurists....always interesting

The world is using at least 1,000,000 barrels a day more today than it did a year ago on this date.

That means at least 365,000,000 barrels a year more than the year before.

[shtferbrains]

" said Mark Jaccard, an energy economist at B.C.'s Simon Fraser University, who has advised governments on climate policy and helps write reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."


Totally unbiased Op-Ed.

[Guest]

the slump hasn't lasted that long in the US because they don't have a govt shooting them in the back at every turn . going good there , from any of the guys I talk to
I asked a question last week , didn't see your reply
it was , why does bill C -48 only stop west coast tankers , but not cruise ships which are the scourge of the ocean , and meanwhile , tankers are coming in the east coast , fully loaded with bloody oil from countries where they still stone women and cut their clitoris off ??
surely you are not so naive that you can't see what this gang of bully's are doing to western Canada
you need to wake up

[grassfarmer]

Strange it showed up on my computer fine.

[Guest]

Strange it showed up on my computer fine.

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yea it works now , not sure what happened
I will agree the slump was well under way before that fateful day in October
but the only two that lasted this long and cut that deep were caused by trudeaus
I spent half my life out there and saw it first hand , buisness doesn't like they way they blow money and discourage buisness . what do you think of the loblaws scandal ?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Anyone who lives in the real world is well aware that the job losses were a result of the oil price dropping. But kicking an industry while it is down is why the NDP is so hated by anyone in the industry. The layers of bureaucracy, taxes and regulations that they have added at the worst possible time have actually added jobs just to comply. But, unfortunately, not productive jobs, only parasitic jobs, further eroding our competitiveness, and further delaying the eventual recovery.

And on the same note, while private sector job growth has been abysmal at best, public sector job growth has been phenomenal under NDP, at 58,600 at a cost of over $1,000,000 per job based on the debt added. And too many of those jobs created( or not destroyed as they should have been to match the new economic situation) are in regulatory agencies, further burdening the already over stretched private sector. Having close connections on both sides, I have seen the evidence.

And thank you for the morning laugh. That Agriville's resident blind ideologue is accusing everyone else of being ideologues, then being supported by the ultimate example of a blind ideologue himself. And neither one see the irony as usual.

[beaverdam]

No one will forget the video of Notley chanting with the anti pipeline protesters, no one really believes she wants a pipeline now, she's not worried about oil patch jobs, she cares more about bureaucrat jobs because that is where the power is, in controlling Albertans.

[Guest]

Cbc radio stated that there is a chance kenney could take notley out ??
Can you believe those out of touch arseholes ?
It will make voters get out and vote though if they think it is that close !
And they and ctv have been campaigning so hard for the ndp , such a shame , lol

[grassfarmer]

yea it works now , not sure what happened
I will agree the slump was well under way before that fateful day in October
but the only two that lasted this long and cut that deep were caused by trudeaus
I spent half my life out there and saw it first hand , buisness doesn't like they way they blow money and discourage buisness . what do you think of the loblaws scandal ?

The graph was related to the NDP taking power in Alberta, not the Liberals federally so May rather than October. If you mean that the only two slumps or downturns in the oil patch were caused by Trudeaus this graph clearly addresses that false claim. It was caused by a downturn in global oil prices.

As for Loblaws I already commented on that in a previous post but I am always opposed to Governments handing tax payers money to large private corporations (corporate welfare). I'm as opposed to the Loblaw payment as I was to several similar hand outs by the federal PC Government to global agribusinesses like Cargill after the BSE debacle. Absolutely opposed.