Zeihan on Alberta

[jazz]

Zeihan always points out geography and resources as catalysts in politics. In that case, the west holds all the cards as well. Most of Canada is tundra, boreal forest, muskeg swamps, mountains and rocky out crops in the shield. Most of the populations live in old alluvial deltas in Vancouver and Toronto, Ottawa Montreal. The only expanse open for unrestricted development is the southern interior. And that is where all the resources are, mineral, energy, ag. We have an GDP bigger than more than 200 countries in the world. AB on its own it the worlds 5th largest energy producer. Any renewable dreams, panels and windmills will only work in southern Ab and Sk. We just need to secure a tiny sliver of ocean access and I would say Churchill is the place then grain can go out there too.

[dmlfarmer]

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Your costs to farm wont be going up. Your product would be denominated in US currency a 30% increase in value right from the get go. Same thing as oil. Most of our equipment is US made. ND has unbelievable rail that connect to the Midwest river system. That system is cheaper and superior to Canada. If oil starts to negotiate a path for getting off the continent through US territory, grains would be doing the same. There is no reason that the existing E-W system in Canada wont still be used.

Disagree with everything you claim. First, if oil goes up in price, fuel costs go up, farm costs go up. Feds pay 1/3 of crop insurance now. Who is going to pick up that cost?
Second, commodities are already priced in US dollars. That is the reason we are getting $10.00 for canola today rather that $7.50. It is the reason a change in the price of oil impacts the Canadian dollar. We would be paid exactly the same for commodities we are getting now. Third,
Check a rail map, there is only one railroad out of Alberta going south. If Alberta was to separate alone the only access to the US market and your unbelievable rail system in ND is a single track. Yes, the east west system would still be used but at what costs. What tariffs would Canada place on foreign Alberta goods seeking to use the rail system of the country we told to screw off.

[dmlfarmer]

dml, you bring up valid points, which were all true in the past. But in case you haven't noticed, world trade is breaking down and trade wars etc. are the new normal. The only country with the leverage to negotiate trade deals in its own favour is( and will only ever be) the US. As the world trade pie shrinks, everyone else will be on the outside looking in, especially Canada. I would rather that our products have access to the markets that the US has negotiated(strong armed, forced, bribed, manipulated, extorted etc.) than be left fighting over the scraps. The US is still able to get infrastructure built, unlike Canada where foreign (primarily US) interests are blocking every attempt. IMO, this is designed to push us towards the inevitable outcome of joining, except from a position of desperation, rather than strength where we would be otherwise.

Yes , world trade is breaking down, but tell me what new trade deals have the US made since Trump threw a wrench into the system? USMCA is not yet ratified. He has no deal with China, and I doubt we will see one anytime in the near future. He walked away from the TPP that Canada joined. He has no new deals with Europe yet Canada has.

From a farming point of view, the biggest losers in the world are US soybean growers and Argentina and Brazil soybean growers are laughing all the way to the bank. Russian, Ukraine, and the FSU have become the new exporter of choice for wheat for middle eastern buyers.

His tariffs (especially steel and aluminum) are increasing costs to manufacturers and those costs are just starting to be passed on to consumers. They are not happy. And while he claims the tariffs are a revenue source and penalty on bad traders, in fact they are the ultimate tax on consumers who end up paying higher prices.

The US has not been able to get the XL pipeline built across their states either after 14 years of trying. He has built zero miles of NEW border wall, his primary infrastructure project. And they have had bridge collapses, dam failures etc so I question if the infrastructure is any better than here.

And on top of all this he is running a trillion dollar a year deficit to keep the US economy afloat.

So tell me, if size equals strength, power, and ability to negotiate, that you claim gives the US power, how will Alberta separating, with no access ocean transport, gain any power. Seems to me they will lose power. If Albertans cannot negotiate with 35 million fellow Canadians, how to you think they will have any ability to negotiate with 350 million Americans, especially when on the other 3 sides we still have 35 peed off Canadians.

[jazz]

dml your hatred of all things trump is skewing your view. Did you see the articles by Zeihan? Read them again. Refute his points. Nothing in his analysis is not factually correct.

If something does not change, both Alberta energy and Western Canada ag will be dead. We already have one of the highest cost structures in the world and Ottawa is going to continue to subsidize the rest of Canada on our backs. We will be much further ahead by disconnecting from that system if we cant get a fairer shake. You think our costs would be higher than subsidizing the CPP and Quebec vs joining the Americans. You have not thought through the economics and that's our master. We would control the airspace between both ends of Canada so that would give us another leverage. Those places would still be getting energy from us because they have no place to go. Our power would increase ten fold.

As Zeihan puts it, US has an interest in us because they would have access to unlimited energy and mineral resources, gain another ag basin a couple latitudes higher in case climate change does take hold, get access to fresh water coming out of the Yukon snow pack and gain a security buffer to the north. We have huge leverage in a deal with them. Better than we will ever get in Ottawa. Take your blinders off.

[grassfarmer]

.....gain another ag basin a couple latitudes higher in case climate change does take hold, get access to fresh water coming out of the Yukon snow pack.....We have huge leverage in a deal with them....

Well that's a mixed bag but it sounds crazy enough to be a Trump plan. The climate change denier is planning on annexing Alberta in case climate change "takes hold"? Quite how they would gain access to the fresh water coming out of the Yukon by annexing Alberta is beyond me. If he was smart he would just capture it as it runs through Alaska - but we know he isn't smart. Maybe he plans to portage it from the Yukon to Fort McMurray and then send it down a redundant oilpipe to the gulf coast?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It is really sad, We were having a civil discussion where I hadn't even mention any politician's name ,And it turns into a Trump bashing tirade From the radical left as usual. What will you do when he's gone, he has been an absolute gift.

[Guest]

It is really sad, We were having a civil discussion where I hadn't even mention any politician's name ,And it turns into a Trump bashing tirade From the radical left as usual. What will you do when he's gone, he has been an absolute gift.

well , unlike our esteemed virtuous , honest , leader , he sure won't be gone anytime soon .

[AlbertaFarmer5]

well , unlike our esteemed virtuous , honest , leader , he sure won't be gone anytime soon .

And I think these people who are fixated on (against) Trump have some delirious belief that once Trump is gone, the world order will go back to what it was before, and this is entirely the fault of Trump. While, I too would like that to be true, unfortunately, the reality appears to be much the opposite.

[grassfarmer]

It is really sad, We were having a civil discussion where I hadn't even mention any politician's name ,And it turns into a Trump bashing tirade From the radical left as usual. What will you do when he's gone, he has been an absolute gift.

Seemed appropriate enough in the circumstances to bring up Trump to trump some ridiculously trumped-up facts related to Alberta becoming part of the US.
Your spelling and capitalization in that post was awful by the way, you must be a socialist.

[Klause]

Zeihan always points out geography and resources as catalysts in politics. In that case, the west holds all the cards as well. Most of Canada is tundra, boreal forest, muskeg swamps, mountains and rocky out crops in the shield. Most of the populations live in old alluvial deltas in Vancouver and Toronto, Ottawa Montreal. The only expanse open for unrestricted development is the southern interior. And that is where all the resources are, mineral, energy, ag. We have an GDP bigger than more than 200 countries in the world. AB on its own it the worlds 5th largest energy producer. Any renewable dreams, panels and windmills will only work in southern Ab and Sk. We just need to secure a tiny sliver of ocean access and I would say Churchill is the place then grain can go out there too.

Actually, all we need to do is dredge about 1/4 of the Mackenzie. Access to the pacific... It was proposed during the depression and then shelved.

There's a northern river route from the Mackenzie to the Nelson, which goes into Hudson Bay.


Canada has huge potential just need the will and people to make it happen.