2018 low on Chicago wheat, we break that level and im looking for a minimum 3 years in the basement. Possible inverted head and shoulders formation or some sort of spike low. Canola has already done severe chart damage, enough i don't see it rebounding anytime soon. Unless it gets repriced in a different currency i think the days of half canola are over. This is gonna be a nail biter on wheat. The uptrend on yearly level will break since '16 meaning it was only a 3 year reaction and the bear cycle since '08 is yet to complete.
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I'm thinking that level will hold unless new stocks reports dictate otherwise.
Below is a chart of WASDE stocks reports without China included and nearby Chicago values.
Notice in April that S/U was raised but prices were same or a bit higher.
I'll give it till the end of May. If nearby Chicago is under $4.50 by then, June could be very poor for wheat values. And yes, right now the trend is saying lower.
All of this might not mean too much to prairie values, although it is looking like the top is in unless it stays dry. Offers in some areas of the prairies are already barely above $6 for #1 13.5 That could become common with a few good rains to improve prospects
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