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Global Commodities Deflating Rapidly

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    Global Commodities Deflating Rapidly

    Copper latest commodity getting hammered yesterday . . . erased three months of gains in one (1) day.

    Gold prices trending down, feeder cattle take hit over past week, grains . . . well.

    Is crude oil next on the list? . . . .

    How will equities fair in the month of May?

    U.S. 3.2% GDP in 1st quarter . . . unbelievable in my opinion. But investors addicted to-the-hype.

    #2
    Seasonally, equities usually pull back in May/June. I would expect the same this year

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      #3
      Given that oil prices have their seasonal highs this time of year, I am looking for declines soon. Interest rates are starting to head higher again, so this is likely a peak for equities as well. I am surprised at how well they have done this quarter. The US economy has done remarkably well considering the ROW is all but dead, but the 3.2% print is likely optimistic. US data has more credibility than Statscan mind you. Nobody believe a word of what they say any more.

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        #4
        Originally posted by ajl View Post
        Given that oil prices have their seasonal highs this time of year, I am looking for declines soon. Interest rates are starting to head higher again, so this is likely a peak for equities as well. I am surprised at how well they have done this quarter. The US economy has done remarkably well considering the ROW is all but dead, but the 3.2% print is likely optimistic. US data has more credibility than Statscan mind you. Nobody believe a word of what they say any more.
        Hmmm, I think crude usually peaks in the fall....

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          #5
          Crude has two typical peaks per year: one in the spring as people are making summer vacation plans, and the second in the fall prior to home heating season. As heating is more done with NG and propane these days, the spring one has become more prominent.

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            #6
            Trump wants stock markets fully juiced heading into 2020 election . . . calling for 1% cut in Fed rates and another round of money printing (QE4) . . . .

            Economic insanity that commodity markets are not buying into . . . .

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              #7
              No incentive for Trump to strike a deal with China until its an election year. In the meantime it's small headlines one way or another that slightly move commodity markets.

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                #8
                Boom 💥

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                  #9
                  So much for a U.S. China signing ceremony . . . Trump tariff hike threats now hammering equity futures. This may be the biggest market head-fake since 1987.

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                    #10
                    Originally posted by errolanderson View Post
                    So much for a U.S. China signing ceremony . . . Trump tariff hike threats now hammering equity futures. This may be the biggest market head-fake since 1987.
                    US equities recovering already. if you have shorts you better lift them fast. People know that china needs the US more than the other way around.
                    Last edited by ajl; May 6, 2019, 08:16.

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