Global Commodities Deflating Rapidly

[pourfarmer]

Ummm...

Geely owns Volvo.

China has some very large car brands like BAIC, and Geely and they export them all over the world - just not NA.

China's heavy industries builds trains that run through Africa Asia and south America. Argentinas entire belgrano line is Chinese locomotives and rail cars.


China builds more high speed train systems than anyone else in the world.

Tall those screens in your tractors? They are made in China. The software that runs on them is programmed in India.


Remember our CANDU reactor technology? Yeah China bought that, but they already have molten salt reactors so there's that... And they have the largest artificial sun (fusion reactor) in the world.


Just because all you see is Chinese stuff in Walmart and Dollarama doesn't mean that's all they make.

The fact that the demand for cheap throw-away junk is as big as it is here in NA is a testament to the sloth of the people here. China is simply filling a void.


The USA is in a power shift. They are no longer an unrivaled super power economically, politically or militarily.


On top of that, for the first time in our Canadian history we aren't closely tied to a super power.

Canada was always protected - first by France and the UK and when their influences waned, we became super close to the USA.


Today, all three global powers hate us and ignore us... It is time for us to stand on our own two feet and I don't think we can.

Ok Klause...

[WiltonRanch]

Demographically speaking, that is completely opposite to reality. China's rapidly aging population thanks to the one child policy is about to make Japans demographic collapse look like an economic boom by comparison. It truly is now or never time for China. The US, with it's higher birth rate, and youthful immigrants is one of the only bright spots in the world by demographics, giving them the luxury of time.

Isn’t Russia the same as China? Worlds largest country and a stagnant population growth. India’s population is growing. Something to be said about dictatorships and democracies.

[shtferbrains]

Cattle charts very disappointing.

https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/live-cattle.aspx

Lower feed prices used to give some support???

[errolanderson]

Cattle charts very disappointing.

https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/live-cattle.aspx

Lower feed prices used to give some support???

Cow market is the bright spot these days. More than two (2) months of gradual gains. D1/D2 now averaging around 95 cents/lb with a firm tone expected to persist through May.

But spring highs in the fat market are likely in. Some U.S. cash cattle traded as low as $120/cwt yesterday, about $8/cwt off recent highs. This has triggered a selloff right across the cattle board. Spring wholesale beef market has likely seasonally peaked.

Old crop barley will gradually decline into the new crop market (IMO). Lethbridge bids have slid from $270/MT as a winter highs to $255/MT right now to $220/MT for fall movement. Depending on yield fall delivery bids may range as low as $200 to possibly as high as $230/MT. Mother Nature will tell this story.

[errolanderson]

When world leaders act like kids . . . .

New and improved US. Tariffs kick-in to nite. This is poison for many U.S. businesses.

But a beautiful letter was received from Chinese leader Xi yesterday. Great SNL fodder . . . .

[grassfarmer]

Cow market is the bright spot these days. More than two (2) months of gradual gains. D1/D2 now averaging around 95 cents/lb with a firm tone expected to persist through May...

Just to add some ranch perspective to your market observation Errol - the vast majority of Western Canadian cull cows are ready to ship November at weaning. A lot of ranchers do carry them through winter hoping to avoid the depressed November price. My local market quote for mid November was $55-63cwt (and they don't understate the average lol) This winter they basically flat lined on price until mid March - the worst period of cull cow prices since BSE. 1300lb cow at those prices was $767 gross. With a ranch type (versus feedlot) ration plus yardage at custom costs of @$2.75/day across much of the prairies anything sold between November and March was bleeding red ink. Even if you had persevered and fed them right through, gained 150lbs over the winter and sold them at the $84-91cwt in my area now you'd only break even versus dumping them in November. So yes, current prices are a bright spot relatively but it doesn't help the vast majority of ranchers who sold cows at the lowest prices since the BSE years this winter.

[errolanderson]

Just to add some ranch perspective to your market observation Errol - the vast majority of Western Canadian cull cows are ready to ship November at weaning. A lot of ranchers do carry them through winter hoping to avoid the depressed November price. My local market quote for mid November was $55-63cwt (and they don't understate the average lol) This winter they basically flat lined on price until mid March - the worst period of cull cow prices since BSE. 1300lb cow at those prices was $767 gross. With a ranch type (versus feedlot) ration plus yardage at custom costs of @$2.75/day across much of the prairies anything sold between November and March was bleeding red ink. Even if you had persevered and fed them right through, gained 150lbs over the winter and sold them at the $84-91cwt in my area now you'd only break even versus dumping them in November. So yes, current prices are a bright spot relatively but it doesn't help the vast majority of ranchers who sold cows at the lowest prices since the BSE years this winter.

Thanks for your comment . . . .

[errolanderson]

The plot thickens . . . .

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-10/trump-says-u-s-will-boost-crop-purchases-to-offset-china-losses http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-10/trump-says-u-s-will-boost-crop-purchases-to-offset-china-losses

[macdon02]

Anyone remember the mid 80s? They might be coming back