We are on our own....

[bucket]

After reading this statement...

"Dumping products in developing countries is not the way we do things,” Canadian Agriculture Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau told reporters on a conference call from the G20 meeting in Japan, adding such efforts required multilateral coordination.

“It seems easy, but it is complicated to do it the right way,” Bibeau said. “Obviously, it may create some distortion in the market and this is what we want to avoid.”

Thats right its better to write cheques to third world dictators and have them buy food from someone else or more guns for their century old internal wars...

We already have market distortion from the soybean file and the incompetence of this liberal government with so many of our trading partners...

[ajl]

This downturn will make te 80"s look like a sunday afternoon picnic. So long debt levels were low the 80's were fine as there was ad hoc programs for a little cash along the way. This time, there is lots of credit available so guys will try to produce their way out but that results in more and more surplus production unless a weather event intervenes. No help from Ottawa as they are either clueless or deliberately trying to destroy farming in the west. Batten down the hatches, because this is the big sh!t storm.

[bucket]

Meanwhile....the steel industry will extract the 2 billion promised from either government to tide them over until the pipelines are built...

Shareholders have to be paid you know...they are large contributors to the major parties one way or another...either from management or the unions...the parties are going to support the steel industry..


And since we have a Quebec ag Minister...dairy won't be left out as both liberals and conservatives have made the pledge of 3.9 billion for supply management...

[errolanderson]

bucket . . . this trade war is just the beginning of a tectonic shift in international technology and trade and re-balancing of global power. Must agree, we are on our own, but not unfixable over time. The U.S. can do little to reverse the rise of China in technology. Tariffs are not the answer (IMO). China has already surpassed the U.S. in some technological sectors.

What we need a strong political leadership. You negotiate with China, you do not threaten. The question now is; how deep is the incoming recession and how long? Trump’s ag strategy of purchasing all crop and giving away to humanity is far strung and would cost the same as another wall. This is a spending president that has no regard for public debt.

[TSIPP]

What’s a wall cost? 5 billion divided by 300 million people is like a little more than 16 bucks. It’s all political and nothing more.

When you have a money printing press what does it matter?

[jazz]

bucket . . . this trade war is just the beginning of a tectonic shift in international technology and trade and re-balancing of global power. Must agree, we are on our own, but not unfixable over time. The U.S. can do little to reverse the rise of China in technology. Tariffs are not the answer (IMO). China has already surpassed the U.S. in some technological sectors.

What we need a strong political leadership. You negotiate with China, you do not threaten. The question now is; how deep is the incoming recession and how long? Trump’s ag strategy of purchasing all crop and giving away to humanity is far strung and would cost the same as another wall. This is a spending president that has no regard for public debt.

Errol I think you misunderstand the US. They will not back down, nor will they lose this. How much collateral damage is the only question.

To win the cold war the US had to outspend militarily. Now it will have to do that and wage an economic war at the same time which will include tarrifs and subsidies. That's better than having a real war. The debt is secondary to those concerns. This is a bigger play than just some trade. China needs to be checked here and now and they are no where near as strong and dominant as you think. They are more house of cards than you realize. A socialist country with a export dependent economy can be targeted easily.

[northfarmer]

The US and Canada still have a massive trade deficit with China. China needs access to the largest consumer market in the world for their goods, which is North America.

China needs this market more than we need them, but they have been playing us for a long time.

Negotiate yes, but do not bend at the knee. They are communist imperialists loved by our current PM here in Canada which is not good.


Hit them where it hurts if need be. They do that and more all the time to the people they trade with. Finally nice to see a leader play a little hard ball with them.

[Klause]

The US and Canada still have a massive trade deficit with China. China needs access to the largest consumer market in the world for their goods, which is North America.

China needs this market more than we need them, but they have been playing us for a long time.

Negotiate yes, but do not bend at the knee. They are communist imperialists loved by our current PM here in Canada which is not good.


Hit them where it hurts if need be. They do that and more all the time to the people they trade with. Finally nice to see a leader play a little hard ball with them.

Yep.

Canada needs to hit China and India right where it hurts them.


Hah.


We need China. A lot more than they need us

I don't know if you realize this but we lie off of exports and in many ways are more socialist that. China.

We can't win. We don't even have anything to hurt them with.


But they stop buying our goods and our entire ag industry collapses.

We keep trying to ship oil to the west coast. Whose gonna buy it there if not China.


Less than a century ago China couldn't hold off yhe tiny island nation of Japan. Today they are going to to toe with the United States.


The exponential velocity of human improvement in the east (China, India) and the decline of western civilization are both inevitable




Consider this... How much time and effort and resources did we put into fighting the USSR.

And what did we achieve? A free Russian state that is now, instead of buying from us, running us out of export markets.

[jazz]

Klause, let me correct you. Yes Canada needs export markets. Those are not all china. They take a lot of canola but other exports are spread around the world more evenly. That can be enhanced with the right trade leadership.

And we do have something to hit both india and china where it hurts. Restrictions on immigration and travel. Limitations of foreign students in our schools. Blocking of their shady capital into RE markets. We are NOT defenseless, we are simply weakly led.

Oil once in tanker can find multiple destinations. Other Asian countries are deficient as well. It doesn't all need to go to china, but that was probably the idea.

Chinas rise was facilitated by the west. We made a mistake, now it will be corrected. What should be promoted now is a north American union to counter china.

[grassfarmer]

Errol I think you misunderstand the US.

Jazz, I think you misunderstand China. It's an entity that's been around since the beginning of time. It's a unit, all for one - in for the long haul. Unlike the US which has been led in recent times by a peanut farmer, a red neck from Arkansas and now a reality TV star. There is no comparison between them as countries and no doubt who will be the winner in the dispute - and it isn't the US.

[jazz]

Jazz, I think you misunderstand China. It's an entity that's been around since the beginning of time. It's a unit, all for one - in for the long haul. Unlike the US which has been led in recent times by a peanut farmer, a red neck from Arkansas and now a reality TV star. There is no comparison between them as countries and no doubt who will be the winner in the dispute - and it isn't the US.

Grass, the world has never seen anything like the US before. There is no comparison. If the age of a people meant anything you would see countries like Egypt as a power house. Not going to happen.

If the US does nothing, it still wins by demographics alone. The one child policy has seen to that outcome. China will age out before it hits the US level of wealth. US wins the long game as well. US holds ALL the cards that matter, the resources, the military, the currency, the demographics, the security, the treasury, the stock market, the fed. All the US has to do is tilt the leavers on china a bit and like every socialist country it comes apart.

[Klause]

Klause, let me correct you. Yes Canada needs export markets. Those are not all china. They take a lot of canola but other exports are spread around the world more evenly. That can be enhanced with the right trade leadership.

And we do have something to hit both india and china where it hurts. Restrictions on immigration and travel. Limitations of foreign students in our schools. Blocking of their shady capital into RE markets. We are NOT defenseless, we are simply weakly led.

Oil once in tanker can find multiple destinations. Other Asian countries are deficient as well. It doesn't all need to go to china, but that was probably the idea.

Chinas rise was facilitated by the west. We made a mistake, now it will be corrected. What should be promoted now is a north American union to counter china.

Great idea, however:

China and India combined are 3 billion people. The number of students and travelers coming to Canada are infantismaly small. All that would do is anger China's political system. It wouldn't hurt them... When it comes to education, we really have little to offer China. We have no real research budget or research goals. And that knowledge is what these people are after.


On the exports front, we are in a super competitive world. New exporters and far more yield and technology capacity in Russia, Brazil, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and others means we are now competing with logistically superior trading competitors... Good will goes a long way.

Pulses went to India and China when Europe quit buying flax that went to China.

So we piss off our trading partners to show them. They ignore us, we suffer, they adapt.


Who looses?



As grassy said... China has been a nation for thousands of years and they play the long game. We have been here for two or three centuries.

Look at some.of the Chinese movies... They save the world with long arcing multi millennia plans. The USA comes up with 5 year solutions...

The USA has been w power for a century... Blink of an eye in world history terms.


All I'm saying is we need to be humble, put our heads down, work hard, and eject the rot from our society if we want our way of life to continue...

[ajl]

Apparently there are many who admire China's basic dictatorship. I do not. I will bet on the US and that is where I have money invested. I like the fact that decision making is decentralized and many get to make economic choices. While some will make poor decisions others will make brilliant ones. In China central planning by the few dominates and who knows whether decisions are made by a wise man or a fool. This is why in a true democracy like the US the political process in inefficient and frequently chaotic. Every body gets their say. I like that.

[bobofthenorth]

bucket . . . this trade war is just the beginning of a tectonic shift in international technology and trade and re-balancing of global power. Must agree, we are on our own, but not unfixable over time. The U.S. can do little to reverse the rise of China in technology. Tariffs are not the answer (IMO). China has already surpassed the U.S. in some technological sectors.

What he ^^^^ said.

This is a fundamental change in the power dynamic of the globe. Think of the US as Britain after the 1st War and China as the US. That's only 80 years ago. World powers come and go - the US is going. I disagree with Errol in that I think we can fight back. We've been seduced by cheap Chinese goods but if that's all we want we can get them from India. The Chinese need us worse than we need them. Oil is absolutely a problem but right now we can't get it to tidewater anyway and we're importing so focusing on Canadian consumption is likely easier than getting an export path.

The real problem is the current crop of asshats in our federal government. John Manley said months ago that arresting Mung Wong Ding Dong was a colossal f-up and that's what the Chinese are really pissed about. Its not so much that we dared to arrest her, its that we didn't know how the game is played. The feds knew 3 or 4 days in advance that she was coming to Vancouver. Normally they would have used that time to get word to her and she would never have landed. This PMO is the gang that can't shoot straight - they were likely all in the pub by noon on Friday and nobody got around to making the phone call. When simple stupidity explains any given situation you don't need to look for further explanation.

We're absolutely on our own but we're being led by a band of dipshits that couldn't manage a one horse parade where the single rider knew the route in advance.

[Oliver88]

After reading this statement...

"Dumping products in developing countries is not the way we do things,” Canadian Agriculture Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau told reporters on a conference call from the G20 meeting in Japan, adding such efforts required multilateral coordination.

“It seems easy, but it is complicated to do it the right way,” Bibeau said. “Obviously, it may create some distortion in the market and this is what we want to avoid.”

Thats right its better to write cheques to third world dictators and have them buy food from someone else or more guns for their century old internal wars...

We already have market distortion from the soybean file and the incompetence of this liberal government with so many of our trading partners...

Will Canada be forced to one ad hoc payment for grain farmers? (Dairy already is getting $3.9 billion)

In the USA there will be a soon to be announced MFP 2.0 payment. Also there will be Prevent Plant Acre Payments due to the I-States muddy conditions.