New crop Pricing

[craig]

Wanted to get a feel out there for people's thoughts on new crop pricing,basis, etc. Was in the office this morning and calls I made seem to indicate the feed market especially barley is in a hold pattern till we see where things shake out. Ocean freight concerns are also impacting basis levels especially canola. Nothing jumps out as super attractive but then again that is usually the case when we are in a year with somewhat reasonable prices.My concern is that with many things in agriculture these days, in 6 months time we might look back and wish we had the pricing opportunities we have today. So much for stability

[charliep]

Nobody jumping to the challenge so will throw in my two bits worth.

Feed barley and canola would have my attention in here for the first little bit (10 to 15 %) not so much because I am bearish the market but because prices are historically above average and should cover costs. From my sources Saskatoon, nothing too exciting on new crop pulse prices. Wheat - Would have to lock in futures/flip to a PPO contact - will let others comment.

Anything you do on new crop pricing in here is a similar strategy to asking a lead to put up guards in curling. A starting point that can be used later in the season to lock in profits.

[cris]

I'm getting interested in new crop canola, and canola basis to crush. Barley i think leave it alone, I hope i'm not alone, but it seems to me wheat has upside potential. I'm not a fan of moving pulses off the combine usually as soon as harvest is done and bins are full we always see $.50/ bu. increase. With only 1.5% growth this year in the economy we should see our buck drop a little (I HOPE ).

[melvill]

Visited a Pioneer facility in southern Alberta today (Jan 26). They are offering a canola basis of $15 under Nov for fall delivery. The merchant suggested that they might offer a new-crop basis as good as $2 to $5 under Nov for new crop.

Last week they were offering $0 to $5 under March for old-crop deliveries. They're back to $15 under for old crop.