Wheat

[bigzee]

I’m still holding 100% of mine from last year, thinking of moving some with this latest rally.
Kicked myself for not selling at $6.80, it’s now $6.73, nothing great but better tha it was month and half ago. With not being in the mainline we don’t get the prices other do on the mainline, would like $7, but going to need something real big to get it there.
How much is the drought going to affect prices? States are washing and we can’t buy a drop.
They are comparing this spring to 07 as far as moisture totals, that year durum hit $15 bu.
Oh ya that was courtesy of the good ol CWB.
If the dollar would take a nose dive wheat prices could rise, along with everything else.
I’m just afraid one rain event and prices will plummet, like they can go any lower.

[farmaholic]

People would rather argue about climate change than give you their solid opinion.

We are hauling right now.

Contracted it at the end of the first week in March for $6.90. #1-13.5. Was supposed to be July delivery, but the terminal is far enough into their major renovations that they are able to take in and load out grain again. Earlier doesn't matter to me this time.

Same terminal is currently at $6.69 spot or $6.75 for July for #1-13.5.

[farmaholic]

I think a widespread meaningful rain event will change prices.

But remember....Canada's production "supposedly" doesn't matter.

Are you profitable at the current price you could get?

[farmaholic]

Here's a dose of honesty for you, Back about December 18 I let almost $7.50 slip away....

[bucket]

Canada's production doesn't matter until it does....

Australia is importing grain.

The US is having issues with their seeding and soon their winter wheat harvest
- one custom combine operator had 6800 acres booked and had that reduced to 400 after a hail storm

Last year was a bad year for the EU harvest

And yet the world is awash in grains...even when they switch to protein burgers

[bigzee]

[ATTACH]4317[/ATTACH]

I think a widespread meaningful rain event will change prices.

But remember....Canada's production "supposedly" doesn't matter.

Are you profitable at the current price you could get?

I agree we don’t count in the “big picture”
With today’s price and last years yield it’s a decent return, better than durum.

[Partners]

Here's a dose of honesty for you, Back about December 18 I let almost $7.50 slip away....

We got 7.11 in Jan..
One good rain and prices will be in a downward spiral..

[bucket]

We got 7.11 in Jan..
One good rain and prices will be in a downward spiral..

How is it that Canada's production doesn't matter and after a rain event the prices slide....its raining in the states??????

[Partners]

How is it that Canada's production doesn't matter and after a rain event the prices slide....its raining in the states??????

The local terminals don't follow the U.S. Prices..
They rip us off..because they can..

[bigzee]

The local terminals don't follow the U.S. Prices..
They rip us off..because they can..

One of my locals “say” they follow Minni prices. Guess I have to believe them ... heck what do I know?? As long as it keeps raining on the winter wheat crops the more prices should rise. Pretty certain they must be full of disease by now.

[farming101]

Average SK prices have bounced back $20/tonne in the last month.
Room for a bit more I'm thinking.

Still some HRS needing to be sourced. Old crop durum not so much.

[Radical]

I believe there have been chances to sell at over 7 dollars in fall and early winter every year since the cwb was gone so why fool around with the rest of the year or 7 dollars plus not enough?

[farmaholic]

I blame malleefarmer for my high price expectations...with the prices he was quoting back then I thought we would see better prices here.

Where are ya mate?

[ajl]

Although we are in a long term deflationary trend, I do think prices could make a run to $8 for good quality wheat here in about a month. Much of the US winter wheat crop did not get the spring top dress of nitrogen as it was too wet. That will result in low protein and combined with the shortage of corn will make some wheat go to the feedlot unless fusarium is too high. That will also get wheat of the market. This deals with any surplus of US winter. As others have mention OZ is importing wheat and will like continue to do so for the rest of the year until their new crop is ready. So wheat will be snug until the end of the year. Black sea production is forecast down somewhat as well. So I am not a seller here at these prices. We have showers coming this week in north central AB so I do think that there will be a crop in most of western Canada this year. Drought will not be a significant factor.

[farmaholic]

...... Drought will not be a significant factor.

That could be taken as an inflammatory statement by some people.