Weber newsletter....

[farmaholic]

Today Larry pointed something out that I was thinking about the other day.

I wasn't alive in 1961, but I was just getting started farming in 1988.

His point is the cost of putting in a crop now versus then. No comparison on this farm. If we don't get a crop, or much of one, it is going to be alot more financially painful than it was in 1988 and even worse compared to 1961.

Ya sure commodity prices are higher than 1988 but you have to grow some to sell some. But the expenses are there now.
We put lots of nutrients down, some pre-emerge herbis, expensive canola seed, blah blah blah.... What a wild risk we take. Expenses are stoopid. Markets are ****en fickle.

[ajl]

Actually canola I believe topped $12 in 88 so commodity prices are lower as well. Margins are way tighter today than in most of the 80's. Low interest rates and larger economies of scale combined with higher yields keep most alive but rental land will be a loser for many this year unless price go up soon or phenomenal yields happen.

[Guest]

Actually i started in 83 and somewhere around 84-86 cant remember exactly , we sold canola for $13 / bu . These were real dollars , not trudeau bucks . I remember around that time it was a big concern that canola inputs were nearing the $100/ac . This is definetely a freight train heading for the mountain and biggest concern right now is the “impending glut of canola”
Unf&$kingbelievable

[jazz]

In the 80s we were still half summer fallow, only wheat. Summerfallow wasnt a good choice for those dry yrs but continuous cropping hadnt caught on yet. Point being, even though we had a couple disasters, inputs were low and the crop was done early so you knew exactly what to do with it.

[bucket]

Even if you farm with 1988 machinery the cost to put a crop in has gone up exponentially. ...

Fuel taxes alone today are higher than the cost of fuel in 1988...


And we all know the price of grain hasn't kept pace....or we wouldn't be watching the weather as close as we are. ...

[tweety]

So what are the cost differences?

[Sheepwheat]

My dads 1970’s and 1980’s vintage income tax returns show me he spent an average total of about sixty bucks an acre on inputs. This includes all costs, including for cattle etc. The cattle revenue paid these inputs, grain was just gravy on top!

1/3 2/3 summerfallow rotation. Canola, wheat, rye, barley, flax.

1993. I could choose untreated AC excel canola for 50 cents a lb. Treated was 95 cents. 1998 I seeded invigor 2153. Seed was 2.99 a lb. and did that stuff have vigor and grow like a dang! Close to 50 before 50 was cool.

A lot has changed. No wonder we are a disillusioned lot.

Now, what we do about it is what is interesting to me. Do we keep doing the same thing expecting different results, or do we change our ways on a massive scale?

[LWeber]

Actually canola I believe topped $12 in 88 so commodity prices are lower as well. Margins are way tighter today than in most of the 80's. Low interest rates and larger economies of scale combined with higher yields keep most alive but rental land will be a loser for many this year unless price go up soon or phenomenal yields happen.

SK AG FOOD references:


01/06/1988 269.6 6.11
1/13/1988 271.3 6.15
1/20/1988 272.1 6.17
1/27/1988 263.6 5.98
02/03/1988 269.5 6.11
02/10/1988 273.8 6.21
2/17/1988 277.3 6.29
2/24/1988 275.1 6.24
03/02/1988 269.6 6.11
03/09/1988 267.4 6.06
3/16/1988 260.4 5.91
3/23/1988 267.9 6.08
3/30/1988 271.3 6.15
04/06/1988 277.5 6.29
4/13/1988 277.2 6.29
4/20/1988 280 6.35
4/27/1988 281.5 6.38
05/04/1988 276.7 6.28
05/11/1988 294.1 6.67
5/18/1988 310.2 7.04
5/25/1988 322.7 7.32
06/01/1988 341 7.73
06/08/1988 369.5 8.38
6/15/1988 357 8.10
6/22/1988 415.8 9.43
6/29/1988 391.3 8.87
07/06/1988 407.7 9.25
7/13/1988 383.7 8.70
7/20/1988 341.4 7.74
7/27/1988 307.2 6.97
08/03/1988 343.2 7.78
08/10/1988 351.9 7.98
8/17/1988 353.9 8.03
8/24/1988 342.3 7.76
8/31/1988 345.8 7.84
09/07/1988 354.7 8.04
9/14/1988 356.1 8.08
9/21/1988 338.6 7.68
9/28/1988 334.3 7.58
10/05/1988 327.5 7.43
10/12/1988 313.6 7.11
10/19/1988 316.9 7.19
10/26/1988 294.4 6.68
11/02/1988 308 6.99
11/09/1988 314.3 7.13
11/16/1988 291.2 6.60
11/23/1988 293.4 6.65
11/30/1988 291.2 6.60
12/07/1988 304.5 6.91
12/14/1988 317.1 7.19
12/21/1988 321 7.28
12/28/1988 320 7.26