Corn: A Game Changer . . . .

[errolanderson]

What a difference a month makes . . . . Flooding and abandoned acres has totally changed fundamentals turning the U.S. corn market from a dog to an emerging bull market. Futures volatility is apt to pickup heading into the July/August weather markets. USDA did cut their corn yield estimate 10 bu and now estimated at just 166 bu/acre. Abandoned acres estimated at 3 million . . . it may be more. The next big USDA report is plantings (acreage) due out at the end of the month.

Group . . . corn is king of grain markets. If corn goes up, everything goes up including wheat, canola futures are gradually rising, even our cash pea market tone may perk-up. But not good news for feeder cattle. Feeder cattle futures remain under pressure as feeding margins remain under pressure.

Note: Volatility is a friend of option buyers. Whether you own puts or calls, volatility tends to jack-up the premiums. But for owners of futures outright whether long or short, margin call risk heightens especially with the incoming weather market straight ahead.

[farming101]

Lethbridge quotes are 6.20 barley, 7.20 corn

Anyone needing barley in SK is stepping up to keep it from going west.

Broker says big crop coming lock in now

[farmaholic]

That's enough sarcasm out of you!



Is that Captain Oddball?

[furrowtickler]

A big crop from Red Deer to Edmonton will not make up for the other 80% of western Canada... lol

[beaverdam]

Can't beans be planted later,,,on ground that's too wet at the moment? (of course if it stops raining)

[Agvocate]

Can't beans be planted later,,,on ground that's too wet at the moment? (of course if it stops raining)

Yes, and that is likely why USDA left bean yield unchanged in yesterdays report. I would expect to see yield come down from current 49.5, but too early to do it in this report.

[dalek]

Can't beans be planted later,,,on ground that's too wet at the moment? (of course if it stops raining)

In a big chunk of the wet states the insurance deadline for beans is looming very close, within the next 7-10 days. A lot of those acres aren’t going to be dry in time. Some will plant later but most will go with prevent plant

[grassfarmer]

I think parts of Southern MB are trying to make up for the US corn shortfall - drove Hwy2 to Winnipeg and looks to be hugely more corn than previous years. Looks to be at the expense of both canola and beans but I'm no expert on these things.

[FarmJunkie]

If we get a normal frost this fall it’s gonna be a holy f@$& look out situation

[helmsdale]

If we get a normal frost this fall it’s gonna be a holy f@$& look out situation

Wont have to worry about weed dessication!

[farmaholic]

Hard to take advantage of strong commodity markets if you don't have much to sell.

Can options ever make up for dismal yields? Are there enough "plays" to be taken advantage of?

Something is telling me it isn't that lucrative, or more people would be doing it.

The Cos/exchanges writing the options proobably don't lose??????

Anyone?

[Guest]

other than oats($3.65 today) , i hope these aren't strong commodity prices?