Corn: A Game Changer . . . .

[farmaholic]

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We made our money on unpriced grain in the bin. Not saying that futures markets wouldn’t work but we aren’t wired that way. It would take quite a bit of education and a lot of dedication. Glad it works for some though.

There is truth to that statement. And I also understand the risk of spoilage and being on the wrong side(long) in a falling market.

There is still something to be said for physical possession of the grain as well.

Some commodities are best held in the bin because there are no futures and options contracts to speculate with. And the futures and options commodities that you could play with are flat without any potential.

I don't think that there is a right answer, but I do appreciate the people with a good handle on futures, calls, puts and chart analysis giving us their input and opinion.

[errolanderson]

92% of the US corn acres have been planted. That leaves more than 7 million acres unplanted compared to intentions.

The best progress: Iowa 98%, Nebraska, 98%, Minnesota 99%
The slowest progress: Illinois 88%, Indiana 84%, Ohio 68%,
Conditions unchanged week over week with 59% rated “Good to Excellent”

This crop progress report didn't feed the bull today which could led to moderate long liquidation (profit-taking) . . . but choppy price action ahead.

[errolanderson]

Apparently, the corn stocks-to-use ratio may slip below 7% . . . the 2nd time ever this low in the past 50 plus years.

Crop progress showing Iowa planted may contribute some long liquidation today, but fundamentals do suggest a volatile Jul/Aug weather market that is apt to persist right into the harvest season.

This will continue to support all grain markets (IMO) including pulse markets, feed markets, canola. Wheat will watch hot, dry conditions in Russia right now as well.

Interesting times group . . . .

[furrowtickler]

Thx for all your info Errol 👍👍

[Agvocate]

Pretty good break overnight and then a bit of a bounce back in the day session. Market may look to focus on beans a bit more in the next few weeks. Beans still being planted with more wet weather in the forecast and the thought that the price spread between corn/beans favors 2020 corn planting a little too much. Bean planting's were 2% below expectations.

Canola has the chance to come along for the ride. I still can't buy into a wheat rally personally and have sold new crop on the recent move.

[rumrocks]

Errol, I've been watching lumber futures for a while now with the big run up this winter, then the big fall and now it's seems very choppy. This seems unusual, how big a factor do hurricanes, tornadoes, and forest fires have on the lumber futures, and do hedge funds speculate in this commodity.

[errolanderson]

Errol, I've been watching lumber futures for a while now with the big run up this winter, then the big fall and now it's seems very choppy. This seems unusual, how big a factor do hurricanes, tornadoes, and forest fires have on the lumber futures, and do hedge funds speculate in this commodity.

rumrocks . . . lumber is a thinly traded contract and speculators getting caught on the-wrong-side of a market move can pay a heavy price. My suggestion is trade as if a margin call is always imminent or simply 'stay away' from this contract. Even protective stop orders can get run.

Natural disasters do impact, but buyer enthusiasm can drive prices beyond fundamentals quickly. Given the thin volume, hedge funds likely don't participate too heavily. Sorry I'm such a bummer on this one, but don't want to see investors take an unsuspecting tumble.

[malleefarmer]

One can expect market togo sideways or drift lower?

Until exact acres planted are known yields of all crops then chuck in production issues that happen all over the world each year.

So about were market is today is about the way its gonna be in my opinion,but will trade up and down to this level, just domestic basis will affect prices for each of you locally.

Last year australia worst year in history world markets hardly blinked sadly same will happen with canadian production issues in 2019.

But we had domestic basis which pushed wheat and barley anywere from $70 to 125 over world prices at times.

[Guest]

that won't ever happen here, canada doesn't matter

[malleefarmer]

that won't ever happen here, canada doesn't matter

you must have domestic flour mills feedlots and milk industry that uses grain thats all that pushed prices up in oz last year nothing more nothing less

[TechAnalyst]

Just a heads up on the US planting progress reports that could have significant implications for the grain and oilseed markets this Friday.

There is much confusion and scepticism over the 92% seeded amount for corn. No one can figure out how with it being so dire a situation.

The USDA has been defending itself by explaining that is the percent a farmer has seeded of what he expects to. Not a percent of the seeding intentions report.

In short, if a farmer gives up after seeding half of his expected acreage, he is 100% complete seeding that crop for the progress report.

Back to the market impact this coming Friday. The USDA feels they will have a good handle on the prevent plant acres for the final seeded acreage report. Given the trade has been working on the idea that 92% of the 92.8 mil ac was seeded (85.3 mil), there could be a dramatic push higher if it comes out closer to 80 mil ac given the amount of acres abandoned.

This could be exaggerated by the cool, wet conditions of the spring which will surely reduce yield on what did get in.

As Errol said, a rising tide lifts all boats. If corn pushes higher, it should help many markets.

[furrowtickler]

Just a heads up on the US planting progress reports that could have significant implications for the grain and oilseed markets this Friday.

There is much confusion and scepticism over the 92% seeded amount for corn. No one can figure out how with it being so dire a situation.

The USDA has been defending itself by explaining that is the percent a farmer has seeded of what he expects to. Not a percent of the seeding intentions report.

In short, if a farmer gives up after seeding half of his expected acreage, he is 100% complete seeding that crop for the progress report.

Back to the market impact this coming Friday. The USDA feels they will have a good handle on the prevent plant acres for the final seeded acreage report. Given the trade has been working on the idea that 92% of the 92.8 mil ac was seeded (85.3 mil), there could be a dramatic push higher if it comes out closer to 80 mil ac given the amount of acres abandoned.

This could be exaggerated by the cool, wet conditions of the spring which will surely reduce yield on what did get in.

As Errol said, a rising tide lifts all boats. If corn pushes higher, it should help many markets.

The pictures of corn from 4 states that were posted on here don’t lie .... experts and usda do