Seeing two different paths forward from here, either:
1)We do nothing in the face of more of the same federal economy killing policies, which will continue to erode our currency leading to inflation which inevitably affects land prices likely not in terms of USD, but at least in CAD.
2) We reach the breaking point and separation becomes reality ( and goes without saying, acceptance into the US). During the initial turmoil, Canadian currency will be drastically affected leading to inflation, possibly quite high. Uncertainty will cause investment to be scared away, obviously a negative for a real estate market partially propped up by outside investment, what would be the net effect of those two conflicting factors?
As separation looks more realistic, there will be mass exodus in both directions, die hard socialists will vacate the west, while anyone capable of doing math will leave the sinking ship that will be the ROC, and move here before the window closes and they would then have to immigrate, a much more complicated process. Not sure that could be quantified in advance, but for easy math, if anywhere close to the same percentage of westerners get out as socialist refugees from the ROC move in, it would be a large net influx. Demand exceeds supply, a positive for real estate values, a rising tide lifts all boats, and probably safe to assume that a disproportionate number of them will not be city dwellers.
Once we are part of the Union, and the shackles of over taxation, over regulation, and the anti-industry policies are gone, investment will return, and there will be an unprecedented economic boom. Whether or not agriculture participates in that boom may be irrelevant, if investment money is flowing in, and people are moving in, land prices will go along for the ride. I say that from my local perspective where land values have had little correlation to their agricultural value for decades.
Or a 3rd option, maybe we should be more optimistic, perhaps responsible governance will return, world trade will normalize, and the debt driven party will go on indefinitely, taking land prices with it. And pigs might fly too...
My take away, is that even by( or in spite of) ignoring the fundamentals of the agricultural sector, I just don't see a scenario where land prices crash and burn. And I am not optimistic about ag product markets going forward, this cycle is far from over. But then, my perspective is biased by the area I am in, where there is a diversity of industries, and land has recreational and residential value, often far exceeding its agricultural value. The very real ( and eventually inevitable) threat of debt driven deflation is always at the top of my mind when making any investment decisions, and that obviously would be the biggest threat to land values, but these other factors just might overwhelm that.
What do you think? And yes, I know what Grassfarmer et. al. think about separation, so lets not rehash that but look at what happens in that event.
1)We do nothing in the face of more of the same federal economy killing policies, which will continue to erode our currency leading to inflation which inevitably affects land prices likely not in terms of USD, but at least in CAD.
2) We reach the breaking point and separation becomes reality ( and goes without saying, acceptance into the US). During the initial turmoil, Canadian currency will be drastically affected leading to inflation, possibly quite high. Uncertainty will cause investment to be scared away, obviously a negative for a real estate market partially propped up by outside investment, what would be the net effect of those two conflicting factors?
As separation looks more realistic, there will be mass exodus in both directions, die hard socialists will vacate the west, while anyone capable of doing math will leave the sinking ship that will be the ROC, and move here before the window closes and they would then have to immigrate, a much more complicated process. Not sure that could be quantified in advance, but for easy math, if anywhere close to the same percentage of westerners get out as socialist refugees from the ROC move in, it would be a large net influx. Demand exceeds supply, a positive for real estate values, a rising tide lifts all boats, and probably safe to assume that a disproportionate number of them will not be city dwellers.
Once we are part of the Union, and the shackles of over taxation, over regulation, and the anti-industry policies are gone, investment will return, and there will be an unprecedented economic boom. Whether or not agriculture participates in that boom may be irrelevant, if investment money is flowing in, and people are moving in, land prices will go along for the ride. I say that from my local perspective where land values have had little correlation to their agricultural value for decades.
Or a 3rd option, maybe we should be more optimistic, perhaps responsible governance will return, world trade will normalize, and the debt driven party will go on indefinitely, taking land prices with it. And pigs might fly too...
My take away, is that even by( or in spite of) ignoring the fundamentals of the agricultural sector, I just don't see a scenario where land prices crash and burn. And I am not optimistic about ag product markets going forward, this cycle is far from over. But then, my perspective is biased by the area I am in, where there is a diversity of industries, and land has recreational and residential value, often far exceeding its agricultural value. The very real ( and eventually inevitable) threat of debt driven deflation is always at the top of my mind when making any investment decisions, and that obviously would be the biggest threat to land values, but these other factors just might overwhelm that.
What do you think? And yes, I know what Grassfarmer et. al. think about separation, so lets not rehash that but look at what happens in that event.
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