What happens to land prices during western separation(or not)?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Politicians come and go, trade disruptions come and go. Been the same for hundreds of years in agriculture, don't fret over what you can't control. You deal with the circumstances as they occur and don't waste too much time on speculating the "what if's" as your chances of predicting correctly what will happen in future are about as good as predicting next month's weather.

Fair enough, but yet you are predicting quite confidently that the future of western Canada does not include any drastic changes.

And how many of those previous trade disruptions were as disruptive as the worlds superpower going from also being the worlds biggest oil importer( or substitute the most important commodity of the era, spice, cotton, wool, grain, coal, slaves etc) to being a net exporter, and literally no longer needing the rest of the world, or needing to care what happens outside their borders? That doesn't mean they don't or won't, but it is certainly an option.

I don't think most of us can even grasp how this changes the world order, and that it won't be going away with the next regime change. It will be interesting to see how the US responds to the latest crisis in the straights of Hormuz, now that they literally don't have a horse in the race. Are they still going to defend the interests of their trading partners and allies without question? Will they see what concessions they can extract from them first and only then defend them, or will they wash their hands of this and say not my problem. And the implications that has for all world trade, from Canadian grain to Chinese goods coming back.

[ajl]

It is amusing that some still think that you can work from within in Canuckistan. Done that for 25 years or more and yielded zilch. Allberta has the choice of sinking with ship Canuckistan or have a go at independence. The only thing as far as recognition internationally that matter is the will the US recognize us as independent and I think it will. Other trade agreement not worth the paper they are written on and China will still send it exports to us. Big issues will surround the pension plan but we have enough leverage that rest of canuckistan will be forced to pay up. As far as land values are concerned, it will not have much impact. Real estate is in a bear market right now except for loose monetary policy which is the main driver of all real estate values. Politics favor continued loose monetary policy in place dependent on commodity exports so values will depend on the extent that currency debasement overpower bearish fundamentals just like what is happening now. Bearish fundamentals for farmland primarily involve the disappearance of export markets. People overseas are simply too poor to buy from us. Non Us exports are dead.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It is amusing that some still think that you can work from within in Canuckistan. Done that for 25 years or more and yielded zilch. Allberta has the choice of sinking with ship Canuckistan or have a go at independence. The only thing as far as recognition internationally that matter is the will the US recognize us as independent and I think it will. Other trade agreement not worth the paper they are written on and China will still send it exports to us. Big issues will surround the pension plan but we have enough leverage that rest of canuckistan will be forced to pay up. As far as land values are concerned, it will not have much impact. Real estate is in a bear market right now except for loose monetary policy which is the main driver of all real estate values. Politics favor continued loose monetary policy in place dependent on commodity exports so values will depend on the extent that currency debasement overpower bearish fundamentals just like what is happening now. Bearish fundamentals for farmland primarily involve the disappearance of export markets. People overseas are simply too poor to buy from us. Non Us exports are dead.

And US is going to strong arm their way into being the exporter into the few markets that remain, at the value they dictate, at the expense of every other exporter who will be left to pick up the scraps. We can either join in and take advantage of that, or join the rest of the world fighting over whatever markets are left.

[grassfarmer]

......People overseas are simply too poor to buy from us. Non Us exports are dead.

What a sheer fantasy you guys live - "Trumps's a genius, no other countries have any money, America is the only game in town so we'd better see if we can join them." In reality the US only accounts for in the teens of % of world trade - either imports or exports. Not much different that the EU or China and the 3 combined are still less than half of world trade. The world is a bigger place than you see in Facebook memes and out your window.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

What a sheer fantasy you guys live - "Trumps's a genius, no other countries have any money, America is the only game in town so we'd better see if we can join them." In reality the US only accounts for in the teens of % of world trade - either imports or exports. Not much different that the EU or China and the 3 combined are still less than half of world trade. The world is a bigger place than you see in Facebook memes and out your window.

See, You really do understand. The US has so Little reliance on imports or exports, That as world trade collapses, It will have almost no effect on their economy, Compared to the sheer devastation it will have on Canada or China etc.

And as The only country willing or capable of enabling and policing world trade routes, And now no longer needing to import oil, What they decide to do with these two factors affect the rest of the world.

[jensend]

America doesn't want western Canada. They already have control of a big chunk of the Canadian economy. Separatists won't be welcomed. There are separatists in California too and Washington won't recognize western Canada because it would be precedent. The Americans have fought a war over secession and don't need another. Look at Britain's efforts to get out of the EU. The rest of Canada could make it very difficult and very expensive. It's not as simple as having a vote and wave goodbye. Alberta has become more liberal with immigration so separatism won't be universally accepted. The question of land values is irrelevant.

[ajl]

What a sheer fantasy you guys live - "Trumps's a genius, no other countries have any money, America is the only game in town so we'd better see if we can join them." In reality the US only accounts for in the teens of % of world trade - either imports or exports. Not much different that the EU or China and the 3 combined are still less than half of world trade. The world is a bigger place than you see in Facebook memes and out your window.

75 to 80% and a growing share of our exports to to the US Who all is shipping stuff here is irrelevant. Canuckistan has been trying to diversify its export markets even longer than the west has been trying to achieve political fairness with again zilch for a result. Thanks for proving my point to be correct again.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

America doesn't want western Canada. They already have control of a big chunk of the Canadian economy. Separatists won't be welcomed. There are separatists in California too and Washington won't recognize western Canada because it would be precedent. The Americans have fought a war over secession and don't need another. Look at Britain's efforts to get out of the EU. The rest of Canada could make it very difficult and very expensive. It's not as simple as having a vote and wave goodbye. Alberta has become more liberal with immigration so separatism won't be universally accepted. The question of land values is irrelevant.

If it plays out they way you suggest, then your last statement is patently wrong. The movement, regardless of outcome will have a drastic effect on land values, and not in a good way.

But on the other hand, Manifest Destiny, and the Monroe Doctrine are still alive and well.

The destinies of our nations will not be dictated by foreign powers; they will be shaped by the people who call this hemisphere home. Today, we proudly proclaim for all to hear: the Monroe Doctrine is alive and well." — National Security Adviser John R. Bolton, Miami, Florida April 17, 2019.

[tweety]

In 1871, the Government of Canada entered into Treaty 1 and Treaty 2 to obtain the consent of the indigenous nations from the territories set out respectively in each Treaty. The Treaties provided for the taking up of lands "for immigration and settlement". In order to settle the area, Canada invited mass emigration by European and American pioneers, and by settlers from eastern Canada. It echoed the American homestead system by offering ownership of 160 acres of land free (except for a small registration fee) to any man over 18 or any woman heading a household. They did not need to be British subjects, but had to live on the plot and improve it.[1


I don’t see how you can say most land, other than 9.7%, is owned by the Crown, or Queen of England, when the Dominions Land Act gave ownership to homesteaders upon meeting the requirements.

Dominions act was repealed in 1930. At that point half went to provinces, half to federal. You only hold tenure, not ownership.

[samhill]

https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/T-7/page-1.html#h-461426

Please post the portion of the Territorial Lands Act that removes ownership and states tenancy.

The TLA removes any future homesteading rights.

[jazz]

Home quarter protection is derivative from the Dominion Land Act which predates the treaties. Its about as solid a land right as you are going to get anywhere except maybe the US.

[tweety]

If a provincial government wants to expropriate "your" land, you will quickly see you own nothing. Sure they need to mostly compensate you and say why, but your tenure is yanked. Then you get to "own" somewhere else.