USDA Acreage Shocker

[malleefarmer]

I'm hoping that happened today, and that prices start going up Monday in U.S. markets.

If you were in the market long already, wouldn't you stay long with this news, and if you were getting out of large positions short, they'd have to buy to get out of their position,,,so why the rally down? Those that were in the market already in a short position, just made a bunch more money today, even though the news in the report was stating there will be a startling lower amount grains available(and prices should correspondingly rise). Why weren't the shorts, forced to buy back their positions at a higher price(meaning a loss for them)???

Anyone???

resurvey acres oh shit we got it wrong yep there are missing acres Buy signal before adjusted acres come out.

Kinda almost insider trading if they knew they are gonna recount acres sown

[errolanderson]

Every stop in the book was likely triggered after release of USDA whether a buy stop or a sell stop. This triggered the immense volatility.

Saskfarmer is right . . . It’s about following the money or the flow of money. But this triggered losses for both the longs and shorts yesterday. Purchasers of options were safe from getting blown-out of market due due margin calls. This is a warning shot of potential volatility heading into the key July/August weather season. This is just the beginning . . . .

[beaverdam]

Errol, how did those, who held short positions yesterday before the report came out, lose money, when the close was down 19 cents USD?

[errolanderson]

Errol, how did those, who held short positions yesterday before the report came out, lose money, when the close was down 19 cents USD?

Any short with a buy stop likely got blown out yesterday. After release of USDA, corn streaked 15 cents/bu higher, before reality sunk in. This initial market action triggered buy stops knocking shorts out. Then market dove. Corn plunged 40 cents which likely triggered sell stops knocking longs out. First 10 minutes post report release ‘crazy’ to say the least.

Not sure I’ve seen such a bizarre reaction to corn prices from an acreage report. It was flow of money, stops triggered and fund activity (IMO) that created this massive volatility . . . .

[beaverdam]

Any short with a buy stop likely got blown out yesterday. After release of USDA, corn streaked 15 cents/bu higher, before reality sunk in. This initial market action triggered buy stops knocking shorts out. Then market dove. Corn plunged 40 cents which likely triggered sell stops knocking longs out. First 10 minutes post report release ‘crazy’ to say the least.

Not sure I’ve seen such a bizarre reaction to corn prices from an acreage report. It was flow of money, stops triggered and fund activity (IMO) that created this massive volatility . . . .

OK, Thanks, I guess I wasn't following the initial reaction where prices went up, to knock out the shorts.

Isn't this what used to referred to as "whales" entering the market. They're big, they got lots of backing, deep pockets and they can push the market around. Could this be a sign of big money taking profits from the stock market(as it's hitting a high again), and now moving into commodities?

Think about it, how could a farmer, or small player, or even small trading house, go long against a selloff like that yesterday, even though the report is telling you to go long? You'd just have to stay out of the fray for a day or two.

Weren't private estimates even more dire for the crop? Perhaps the whales know that the USDA numbers are still too friendly.

Isn't trading messed up around July 1st, just as it is around Thanksgiving? If so, I wonder where prices will be Monday July 8th?

[FarmJunkie]

It’s all about keeping food prices in check. Would be a major catastrophe if people who actually produced the food made some real money not the guys in the middle.

[shtferbrains]

35-40 days behind in development.... who cares the numbers 🥴

When the price rocketed up the market was calling for more corn.

They kept planting in June.

It's all weather now.

Maybe the acres ARE there.

How many will be harvested and what's the yield?

Like one guy said, driers will burn lots of gas.

[errolanderson]

Apparently, USDA will re-survey 14 states (the entire corn belt) on corn acreage to be re-released on August 12th. What a mess in government reporting . . . .

[bucket]

Apparently, USDA will re-survey 14 states (the entire corn belt) on corn acreage to be re-released on August 12th. What a mess in government reporting . . . .

Errol

Just a dumb question....what do you think about canadian reporting?????

[TASFarms]

Harvested acres will be way less than seeded acres. How much is going to end up getting silaged.