Grain Markets?

[malleefarmer]

Discussion amongst experts on rural radio "who controls grain markets and why is USA so important"

Was interesting most seem to think black sea and south america both just as big players.

Personally its half right but usa king of corn always will be, but beans yeah maybe SA and wheat yeah maybe blacksea/russia.

Years gone by a drought in canada or Australia was big news and sent prices higher know not even a ripple.

But flow of money in futures is always in USA and various exchanges for wheat corn beans and canola seemingly canada is the mover and shaker not sure you guys know more than me but matif canola futures market is often quoted here.

The crux of the discussion was is usa relevant in wheat market anymore? Not sure all i can say is australia isnt on world markets.

Belive it or not was actually a single desker way way back but as australian market opened up my thoughts changed 180 degrees. And as has been showed discussed and agreed upon by AWB etc as times gone on Black Sea more than anything else killed single desk. They were always bargain basement in wheat market and sadly AWB had to undercut market to make sales in huge production years.

Reality is or was single desk really only ever worked in rising markets and the most ardent single desk supporter will admit that. But it served its place for many years.

Currently foward in australia for standard 10 to 11.5% protien wheat in between $ 300 and 310 converts back to 270 to 280 on farm for me.

[bigzee]

We just dream of prices like that.

[malleefarmer]

One of the commentators suggested as a joke that usda "control" prices..........

Reeks that there gonna re survey things and if they knew that why did they rel;ease report?

Not into conspiracy theories at all but it still reeks

[malleefarmer]

We just dream of prices like that.

Hopefully this wont be construed as a smart arse comment more a question.

But you guy obviously dont have many domestic markets on the prairies?

If i had wheat or barley on hand today monday morning one phone call i could shift it by tommorow into a dairy feedlot flourmill or stock feed processing plant thinking you guys just dont have that luxury?

[Hopalong]

Domestic markets in Canada not so bad as some make out.
A variety of grain companies, dealers and brokers offer spot pricing
Often deferred delivery has a price premium, sometimes other way around.
Lower quality wheat goes to feed mills and livestock industry.
Canola crushing plants buy a lot of the crop.
Think functioning and liquid futures markets help when they exist.
US farmers sometimes complain that our currency value gives us an advantage.

[farmaholic]

Can't wait to see what the canola price will be in the last 3/4 of the next crop year(basically 2020 until new crop comes on stream. I see few very good canola crops, smaller production could help the supply side sop up some carry over if we have decent demand this coming year.

Right now we are about a dollar, or more, off your wheat quote Mallee. We got done hauling 1425 tonnes of #1- 13.5 CWRS @ $6.90/bu, Have about 75 tonnes of overage, sold it for $6.50.

Canola is quite dismal, $10.00 when they " need it", then it drops to discourage selling and deliveries. Rinse and repeat.
But how else are they supposed to send the signal they don't want anymore.

For places that want yo buy flax the price is holding up quite well.

Notice people are looking for "off grade" yellow mustard.....I think somebody knows something most don't. Buy admixed yellow mustard....color sort it.... and cash in on a low production potential high price year. You would be surprised what they will take when supply is short.

Will be interesting to see where peas and lentils end up. Didn't India remove pea tariffs. China took a slug of yellows(101?????), what will China do?


Wheat, I have no idea, but am sure they won't want whatever grade and protien I grow. Lol. Seen durum bids higher than red spring lately.

Maybe barley won't have to compete with corn and the malt market might have to compete with the feed market.

Soybeans, oh god, if we could only grow them profitably(we never grew them but don't here many success stories around here). They would be a good crop in a diverse rotation, if......! A grower here ssid the seed "package" hit $140/a.c.. He thinks he's done....greedy pricks priced themselves out of this district.

What's the canary crop like and price potential, I don't think ANYONE knows for sure how much is in farmer's bins.

[beaverdam]

Mallee, just to add alittle context to your wheat prices,,,how far would you say it would be, from your farm/or grainco,,,to the salt water shipping port?

For my location, your prices are just under a buck/bus better, but I think your dollar is valued slightly less than ours now, and your distance to port is likely a third or less, the reason for my question to you.

[farmaholic]

Mallee, just to add alittle context to your wheat prices,,,how far would you say it would be, from your farm/or grainco,,,to the salt water shipping port?

For my location, your prices are just under a buck/bus better, but I think your dollar is valued slightly less than ours now, and your distance to port is likely a third or less, the reason for my question to you.

Mallee can answer his own questions but what would you say if that was a domestic price?

Look at the Protien spec on his quote.....really?

Almost makes you think we're getting ****ed.

[malleefarmer]

Mallee, just to add alittle context to your wheat prices,,,how far would you say it would be, from your farm/or grainco,,,to the salt water shipping port?

For my location, your prices are just under a buck/bus better, but I think your dollar is valued slightly less than ours now, and your distance to port is likely a third or less, the reason for my question to you.

I hate pissing you guys off nobody will have me if i ever get to canada again......oh well will tell you.

My average cart to elevator is lets say 35kms and get charges average $12/13 per tonne then another 80kms to port via rail $15.40. Quite expensive per tonne per km compared to you guys.

Some of the states WA and NSW were they have freight kms of 300 plus to port actually get it done for about $25 so those of us close to port may even subsidize long hauls but shit happens.

will rethink figures in case im wrong dont wanna BS you guys.

Last year domestic demand i could get export/pool prices in the paddock

[malleefarmer]

Mallee can answer his own questions but what would you say if that was a domestic price?

Look at the Protien spec on his quote.....really?

Almost makes you think we're getting ****ed.

The thing that has me wondering is actually current fowards big premium to international markets so one thinks buyers must be doing back to back domestic trades every time a farmer foward sells. No other way cause they cant be selling it for export unless blending is happening which occurs all the time cheap black sea wheat blended with 15/20% top notch high protien canadain or aussie bang they got "good wheat" cheaper

yeah and farma currently 13plus% wheat is only about a $20 premiunm to our bog standard wheat so no protien shortage world wide yet......

Shifting some sheep today and reading a magazine "australian grain" headline in one section WORLD HEADED FOR ANOTHER RECORD WHEAT CROP have to admit got printed a week or so ago so article was submitted a month or two ago seems at times farm media, grain commentators speculators hedgers usda statscan always talk the crop up never down......until its to late then all hell breaks loose guess as mentioned often on agriville thats were options are useful. Never really had much luck with them other than loose change but guess thats the purpose insurance and you lose a little premium or make loose change

[furrowtickler]

I can’t stand when experts call big crops this time of year .... so much can happen
Ffs what a bunch of b/S