very high confidence (greater than 90% chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meter) but no more than 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100.
They are very confident that sea level rise will be equal to what it has been for the past few centuries, or 20 times higher than that, or anywhere inbetween. And they are ONLY 90% confident of that range. I would give a range that broad a full 100% chance.
Chuck, If I come and look at your canola crop in August, and I state that I am 90% sure it will yield between 20 and 400 bushels per acre, will that 90% number give you the confidence to forward sell at least 200 bushels per acre, after all, that is only half of my 90% confidence interval?
Likewise, how much taxpayer money should we be willing to spend based on a prediction so broad it is beyond meaningless. This stuff would be hilarious if we didn't have gullible, incompetent and corrupt government leaders wasting billions based on predictions so vague they are worthless.
Comment