Soybeans / Canola Feeling Heavy

[errolanderson]

Nov beans again breaking $9/bu . . . $8.80/bu may be next in the gun-sights without fresh bullish news soon. This is pressuring canola. Lower overall trading fall range possible should beans break. China appears hardening-their-trade-stand with U.S. soybean exports sluggish, despite political rhetoric.

Global commodities generally under pressure as global recession deepens. Tariffs remain ineffective (IMO) while distorting global trading patterns from traditional markets. Meanwhile, S.E. Asia and Russia trade is flourishing as business relations build due to U.S. tariffs (IMO). A true mess for North America . . . .

[bucket]

It's only a true mess for Canada. ...if you are talking agriculture....the American farmer isn't being left behind....27 billion USD and counting....

[bucket]

It's only a true mess for Canada. ...if you are talking agriculture....the American farmer isn't being left behind....27 billion USD and counting....

I always like to remind market experts that the open market is on the same page as unicorns with me....

While the US does have a transparent market in that the industry is bound dutifully to report the going ons on the trade. ....we have no such thing here....

And it's failures are compounded by two facts...

1. We price off the US market
2. We do not receive the same support outside of market forces....


So we as western Canadian farmers listen to like of Errol, Kostal etc that look at market indicators while they ignore the impact of 27 billion being put into the hands of American farmers. ....

So while Errol talks about sub 9 dollar beans ....when you factor on the supprt to farmers in the states they are closer to being made whole with the MFP of 12.50USD.....imagine what canola would be if that was the market price of soybeans?

[malleefarmer]

Errol is wheat following corn and beans in symapthy rather having fundamental downward pressure?

Seems corn and wheat tonnes worldwide may not make the expected forecasts.

And beans its a reaction to china issues?

Thinking bounce again as its over corrected on nthe downside?

[errolanderson]

Errol is wheat following corn and beans in symapthy rather having fundamental downward pressure?

Seems corn and wheat tonnes worldwide may not make the expected forecasts.

And beans its a reaction to china issues?

Thinking bounce again as its over corrected on nthe downside?

mallee . . . Last 3 to 4 days have been pretty tough for U.S. grain markets. Corn and wheat have plunged 37 to 38 cents/bu, soybeans dove about 43 cents/bu. The problem is; reality is not meeting speculator expectations.

U.S. crop conditions are improving and China has not responded to Trump’s demand of purchasing more U.S. soybeans. This has disappointed the bulls. Corn has been under heavy pressure, with technicals still pointing lower into late July. But, traders will start to focus on the revised August 12 USDA acreage report.

Wheat has been following corn fallout IMO). There is also harvest pressure. Soybeans need the appearance of fresh China purchases.But commodity markets globally remain under pressure due to the unfixable U.S. China trade war. Tariffs have become a long-term fixture altering global trade patterns.

The key in my mind, do soybeans continue to threaten all markets lower or does corn rally late summer with a frost premium pulling all markets higher? Wheat is caught in the middle in my view.

[malleefarmer]

yeah sadly only every now and then wheat trades on its own.

harvest pressure my understanding is wheat expectations of yield was just average harvest yeilds have come in average and harvest is scooting along as normal so no suprises anywere just ouward pressure on wheat in usa.

rest of world wheat a tad bearish but not enough to rock the boat i said just a tad

[the big wheel]

It's only a true mess for Canada. ...if you are talking agriculture....the American farmer isn't being left behind....27 billion USD and counting....

I m so relieved the fed conservatives and sask party are pushing for similar relief and comparison for us farmers here in Canada.

[bucket]

I m so relieved the fed conservatives and sask party are pushing for similar relief and comparison for us farmers here in Canada.

They are????? oh the madness, big wheel...lmao...

And guys vote for these dumbshits out of ideology ....you want to send a message to MOE .....start talking about the farm vote going to the NDP....then get him to explain the difference in agriculture policy.....there isn't any...

[the big wheel]

They are????? oh the madness, big wheel...lmao...

And guys vote for these dumbshits out of ideology ....you want to send a message to MOE .....start talking about the farm vote going to the NDP....then get him to explain the difference in agriculture policy.....there isn't any...

Is what I ve been saying we give our vote away for nothing in return other than keep the ndp out.
Look at where the sask parry is at in terms of shady shit and quite frankly have taken from farmers to pay for their incompetence on many issues.
They have become as stale and dead beat as the old ndp.

[bucket]

Is what I ve been saying we give our vote away for nothing in return other than keep the ndp out.
Look at where the sask parry is at in terms of shady shit and quite frankly have taken from farmers to pay for their incompetence on many issues.
They have become as stale and dead beat as the old ndp.

Then look at the guys that have went from commissions to wannabe politicians....they build an empty resume and people still vote for them...

[farming101]

12:15 EDT Nov beans up as much as 23.88 cents

Not dead yet.....

[errolanderson]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/07/30/trump-backpedals-china-threats-trade-deal-shows-signs-slipping-away/?utm_term=.fd7401ec0c37[/URL]

Nov beans broke $8.90/bu today on China trade frustrations. Fresh bullish news needed ASAP or downtrend continues (IMO) . . . .

[macdon02]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/07/30/trump-backpedals-china-threats-trade-deal-shows-signs-slipping-away/?utm_term=.fd7401ec0c37[/URL]

Nov beans broke $8.90/bu today on China trade frustrations. Fresh bullish news needed ASAP or downtrend continues (IMO) . . . .

There's some absolutely dirty targets, dollars below that need filling, starting at 776 the big one i believe is high $6 sub $7. This recent run in corn couldn't get through the 50% fib retracement from the 2012 high. I tend to agree we are heading for the shitter.

[farming101]

I third it...

[errolanderson]

Hopefully a bounce day for canola, beans and co. But not sure how dead the cat is. China and U.S. are obviously not talking . . . .

But stock markets appear in-trouble. Crude oil whitewashed yesterday, down 8%. U.S. recession for Q3 appears now coming-in-hard (IMO).