US MFP details

[bucket]

https://www.farmers.gov/manage/mfp

[macdon02]

MFP 2 details finally coming later this morning. Word is that USDA will finally get more transparent on the second installment of the Market Facilitation Program (MFP2) this morning, around 10 a.m. CT. Various briefings will be held throughout the day.
A minimum $15 an acre payment was already signaled by USDA Sec. Sonny Perdue earlier this week. The coming info should also provide a maximum per-county payout, with some sources signaling a rate of $150.
Regarding prevent plant, subject to change, latest word is that an MFP-eligible cover crop on prevent plant acres of eligible MFP crops will get a flat $15 an acres MFP 2 payment.
USDA will provide an interactive map including county information. Farmers and others will focus on the map to see expected wide differences in county payment rates.
Farmers will be able to apply for the payments beginning Monday, July 29, with the 50% first tranche payment in mid- to late-August.
There will be separate payment limits for row crops, specialty crops and livestock.
Some sources signal the payment cap for MFP 2 payments will be double the level of MFP 1 — if so, that equates to $250,000 individual and $500,000 husband/wife. However, in no case can an individual receive more than $500,000 ($1 million for husband/wife).
Some observers openly wonder if USDA will increase the number of eligible commodities for MFP 2 payouts.
Eligible hog producer payment: $11/hog.
Dairy payment: 20 cents per cwt.
Eligible tree nuts: A flat $146/acres.

[farmaholic]

Beginning to feel like the mid to late Eighties when I started farming.

And some people say history doesn't repeat......

Is the up "trend" still firmly entrenched?

[macdon02]

[farming101]

Beginning to feel like the mid to late Eighties when I started farming.

And some people say history doesn't repeat......

Is the up "trend" still firmly entrenched?

No.
Prices will go lower till October then go lower

[bucket]

Who has the pockets to go against that?????

If you do....how far are you willing to let prices fall before it doesn't make sense to farm in western canada?

[TechAnalyst]

No.
Prices will go lower till October then go lower

That's what makes a market, I don't think it's quite that clear.

I don't believe an ad hoc subsidy does anything to erase the difficult spring North America endured nor the fallout from it.

Looking at corn as that would provide the lift if there is to be one, new crop prices rallied $1/bu from the lows on seeding difficulties, gave back half of that on uncertainty over the level of prevent plant acres and have been consolidating since.

From a technical perspective, this is a healthy pause in a bull market while the trade awaits final seeded area figures.

USDA's Risk Management Agency employees are suggesting the prevent plant acres for corn could be as high at 15 mil ac. Anything close to that should start a significant leg higher as 77 mil ac seeded and 70 mil harvested at 166 bu/ac would leave no carryout at all using the July demand figures. Obviously that can't happen so prices would have to rally to ration demand.

As an example of how that would flow through to other markets, Kansas wheat is not even 30 cents/bu over corn now so wheat would likely rally step for step with corn.

In short, what the USDA has to say about seeded area on Aug 12th will play a much greater role in price direction than any subsidy.

[furrowtickler]

That's what makes a market, I don't think it's quite that clear.

I don't believe an ad hoc subsidy does anything to erase the difficult spring North America endured nor the fallout from it.

Looking at corn as that would provide the lift if there is to be one, new crop prices rallied $1/bu from the lows on seeding difficulties, gave back half of that on uncertainty over the level of prevent plant acres and have been consolidating since.

From a technical perspective, this is a healthy pause in a bull market while the trade awaits final seeded area figures.

USDA's Risk Management Agency employees are suggesting the prevent plant acres for corn could be as high at 15 mil ac. Anything close to that should start a significant leg higher as 77 mil ac seeded and 70 mil harvested at 166 bu/ac would leave no carryout at all using the July demand figures. Obviously that can't happen so prices would have to rally to ration demand.

As an example of how that would flow through to other markets, Kansas wheat is not even 30 cents/bu over corn now so wheat would likely rally step for step with corn.

In short, what the USDA has to say about seeded area on Aug 12th will play a much greater role in price direction than any subsidy.

What percentage of that US crop is still 30 days or more behind ?
Reality will hit sooner than later

Oh and crops across Europe are burning up by the way ......

[MBgrower]

Who has the pockets to go against that?????

If you do....how far are you willing to let prices fall before it doesn't make sense to farm in western canada?

keep farming till the equity is gone, then move to the city, get a job for 40K a year, and start voting Liberal, causes they will give you free stuff, and tax the rich. thats exactly the plan for this country.

[farming101]

Thanks for your comments Tech.

Corn prices have drawn a bead on $4.0475. That is close to an area of support. I would not have a position open going into the Aug report

Basis is doing the heavy lifting in many areas in the states. Plus .10 or better in a couple counties of NW Iowa

[blackpowder]

Beginning to feel like the mid to late Eighties when I started farming.

And some people say history doesn't repeat......

Is the up "trend" still firmly entrenched?

Kinda what my guts been saying since last year

[furrowtickler]

Kinda what my guts been saying since last year

There is way too much crop way too far behind in North America
Seeded acres will mean *** all in September