Raoul

[macdon02]

https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1159076338126532610?s=20

This is worth considering.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Are you seeing the same thing when you analyze the charts? Do you agree with his assessment?

So, if the markets have efficiently priced in all available information, and accepting that currency moves are typically slow and measured, and take years as opposed to the violent reactions we see in commodities, is the currency move already priced in, or should we expect to see upside in commodities priced in CAD as this unfolds?

[macdon02]

Are you seeing the same thing when you analyze the charts? Do you agree with his assessment?

So, if the markets have efficiently priced in all available information, and accepting that currency moves are typically slow and measured, and take years as opposed to the violent reactions we see in commodities, is the currency move already priced in, or should we expect to see upside in commodities priced in CAD as this unfolds?

We will get a rate cut in Sept devaluing CAD in lock step with the world. There'll be inflation everywhere but the US. Top be honest i have no idea how this'll unfold, but it's looking like one more push down in commods and it'll be a career ender if on the wrong side. The AI system im using is indicating the week of Aug 19th something is happening in numerous macro markets. I don't like what I'm seeing from a producer point of view. Canola "should" test the 2009 low around 360-370 ish. Conversation with grain buyer Friday, he's got 10-20% of normal sales on the books for fall delivery. The expansion of the cash advance limits, imo, is setting this up for another crash. The majority is always wrong. Im going to 100% sold the week of the 19th on this year's production

[macdon02]

Only a new high as a result of the USDA report will change this view

[fjlip]

At the moment there is NO 2019 production to price, all hangs in the frost free days we have left...scary COLD year!

[Tucker]

2004 August frost was my worst year farming so far. An early frost this year would be a career ending event for a huge number of farms. An average crop means farmers live another year. A bumper crop means a new combine. Yay. A wreck year means call RBauction. Never before have so few risked so much for so many who think they are trying to kill them.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Once your 100% sold, how do you manage the Fx risk? Commodities could tank in USD, but go up in CAD, by the time you deliver the physical.

Do you sell futures on the CBOT, then buy back when you sell(move) the physical.
Or do you hedge the currency as soon as you price your crop?

Locking in the commodity might be the easy part.

[Tucker]

I've always been of the mind that one load of canola at $14 isn't as good as 20 loads at $10. One will get you bragging rights at the coffee shop and the other will get you a new combine. It may be true that quantity has a quality of it's own.