China tries to teach Trump economics

[jazz]

While trump causes issues ...other countries are picking up the slack....

This statement should tell everyone they need to know about the US. Why do countries like china or Europe not run to some other countries for their trade if Trump is so mean.

BECAUSE they need the US. They need those rich consumers, they need the banks, they need the currency, they need the financing, they need the technology.

Trump put tariffs on almost $500B of Chinese goods and all we are doing is holding one of their people in house arrest and afternoon shopping. China could announce tomorrow they will get all their ag from Canada. Nope, they need the US more than anything.

[jazz]

chuck and grass are messed if they think the US loses this. In just a few years the US has cut off chinas path to super power.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-11/trump-is-making-xi-s-superpower-2050-plan-tougher-by-the-day Trump Is Making Xi’s Superpower 2050 Plan Tougher by the Day

If you don't want to read it all, I will summarize. The US consumer is 6-10 times richer than the Chinese one. For china to convert to a domestic economy that gap needs to close fast and with their GDP edging downward to something half of what they were used to, China will need massive stimulus to keep it going. They will hit the middle income trap well before their domestic economy can take off and likely with a debt burden several times what the US has.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I find it ironic that supporters of Communist China like to point out that they are playing the long game, and making plans for far into the future, as opposed to our just in time, instant gratification society.

Then, when decisions are made by US which will and are causing short term pain, in exchange for long term prosperity, no credit is given for this foresight.

And the US is free to cut off their own nose to spite their face, uniquely in the world, a newly energy independent US can afford to do so. They uniquely in the world can afford to pay their farmers billions of borrowed dollars to compensate them for damage caused by the trade war, amongst countless other frivolous or unnecssary spending and printing, and still have their currency appreciate against all others. I can't even imagine how much it pains the USA haters to have to admit such things, but you can watch it unfold in real time. You don't have to agree with it, but you might as well accept it.

The US has the resources, demographics, population, security, and finances to screw everything up, and still come back smelling like roses. China has none of those things going for it.

[furrowtickler]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/11/trump-foreign-policy-venezuela-north-korea-iran-results-2020

Why Trump’s 'maximum pressure' foreign policy yields minimum results

The president is heading into 2020 with no major successes and looming crises – so many expect him to attempt to reverse the trend with dramatic deals

Again ..... Trump Trump Trump ...
WTF is Canada heading into 2020 looking like ??? Worry about home !!!

[blackpowder]

Agree. In 300 years there will likely be a China. Not so sure about us.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The president is heading into 2020 with no major successes and looming crises – so many expect him to attempt to reverse the trend with dramatic deals

Imagine that, a politician who doesn't attempt to appeal to the instant gratification voters with immediate results, regardless of what the long term cost of that might be. A politician who likely doesn't care if he gets back in, since his finances, career, and cover ups (and that of all his friends) are not dependent on it.

Does anyone realistically expect that anyone can undo decades of damage within a single election cycle? No, which is why no other politician will even attempt it, since there is no political capital to be gained by doing something which will yield results years into the future, not today.

And the really crazy part, as the Democratic party continues to tear itself apart by trying to see who can be more radically left than the other, Trump will likely get back in again.

[blackjack]

Is there any stats how many people are rushing to get into China.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Is there any stats how many people are rushing to get into China.

I seem to recall a large segment of Hong Kong's population showing some mild displeasure at the prospect of being compelled to get into China recently...

Oh, and a few Canadians sitting in jails who wish they had never set foot in the country.

Actually, I just looked it up, net migration into China has been negative every year for the lasts 60 years which have data. Guess which direction migration into the US is, even under Trump?

[chuckChuck]

The world economy is indeed integrated.

If either the US or China suffers economic problems then we all are affected. Especially Canada which is dependent on exports to both.

The slow down from hyper growth in China to moderate or low growth rates is what triggered the declines in oil and commodity prices in the last while.

Putting additional tariffs on trade will slow down trade even further which will put additional pressure on commodity prices.

If you think Trump's trade policies and a China US trade war are good for you, then don't complain about the resulting low commodity prices and trade issues.

Trump will need a good outcome leading up to the 2020 election. If the US economy starts to sputter it will look bad on Trump. China would be happy to see him gone so don't expect them to roll over easily.

[jazz]

The world economy is indeed integrated.

Let me fix that for you.

The world economy exists because a percentage of western GDP has been siphoned off in the name of socialized globalization. The US is only 4% export based, I would say they are immune.