Alberta & China

[jazz]

Two good vids from Zeihan. The second is a little longer and he is at some SJW conf but he really goes into the reasons why china will never be. Move up to time stamp 15:33. The Q&A at the end goes into more depth on china and the EU.

[jazz]

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[Hamloc]

Enjoyed both videos, certainly makes you think. Looking at the demographics of different countries and how this affects consumption patterns is very interesting. Also interesting and scary to think by 2030 we will be being governed by millennial's, yikes!

[jazz]

The vid about AB is telling that the west will have to sacrifice up to half of its economic output to keep the east going. That is scary and you can see it already.

The china points are interesting. Sky high capital costs and debt compared to the US. Aging one child policy cancels out their consumer transition, hemmed in by island chain countries, ships that cant leave the coastline and their belt and road project is basically building infrastructure to nowhere.

Did you hear the other stat in the vid. It will take until the yr 2240 for the entire rest of the worlds combined navys to match the US.

This trade war was over before it began. Chinese are stupid to not take a deal.

[jazz]

The other stat to note, there is only 1 first world country with a young demographic and thats the US. All other first world young popultions are shrinking and any that are growing are in 3rd world countries. That means the US has at least another couple big booms waiting for it that should propel its economy to #1 forever while the rest fall into secular decline.

He makes point to mention that AB demographics match the US.

[rumrocks]

Think where western Canada would be with new pipelines and ag sales if we weren't held back by anchor drag from Ottawa and transfer payments to the under performing.

[macdon02]

https://twitter.com/JohnStossel/status/1161615965806891010?s=20

Looks like China is accumulating troops on the Hong Kong border. If they go in, I'm expecting an embargo on everything China.... something is coming here, markets getting pushed to breaking points.

[Oliver88]

https://twitter.com/JohnStossel/status/1161615965806891010?s=20

Looks like China is accumulating troops on the Hong Kong border. If they go in, I'm expecting an embargo on everything China.... something is coming here, markets getting pushed to breaking points.

You mean a majority in Hong Kong don’t way to join a communist regime that play the “long game”?

[farmaholic]

Wasn't there an old cliche about a country's greatest resource being it's young people?

I hope a generation or two of affluence hasn't made that cliché passé

[AlbertaFarmer5]

https://twitter.com/JohnStossel/status/1161615965806891010?s=20

Looks like China is accumulating troops on the Hong Kong border. If they go in, I'm expecting an embargo on everything China.... something is coming here, markets getting pushed to breaking points.

Macdon, you follow both Zeihan, and Armstrong. Zeihan sees no future for China, Armstrong's projections show China becoming the dominant power and economy, and even gives a date. Both make a compelling case. Many of Zeihan's predictions are coming true already, And Armstrong is usually pretty effective at finding some obscure event and using it as evidence that he was right all along.

How do you square that circle? I'm inclined to think Zeihan is closer to the truth.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Wasn't there an old cliche about a country's greatest resource being it's young people?

I hope a generation or two of affluence hasn't made that cliché passé

No, just made it really painfully obvious how true it really is...

[jazz]

Wasn't there an old cliche about a country's greatest resource being it's young people?

I hope a generation or two of affluence hasn't made that cliché passé

Well 150,000 abortions a day would say otherwise.

[jazz]

How do you square that circle? I'm inclined to think Zeihan is closer to
the truth.

Think Japan in the 1980s. They had a couple decade run then the US crushed them with currency. Same will happen here.

The Chinese economy is growing at 6% per year. At that pace assuming no US growth at all, they will still need another 50 yrs to overtake the US. They have a debt ration more than 3 times the US and all that did was bring them to 10% of the average US household income. They will eventually hit a debt crisis, deflation and a demographic bomb when all the older working people will need support from the smaller younger generation. Throw in some automation and other disruptors and this story is over.

[Zephyr]

The other stat to note, there is only 1 first world country with a young demographic and thats the US. All other first world young popultions are shrinking and any that are growing are in 3rd world countries. That means the US has at least another couple big booms waiting for it that should propel its economy to #1 forever while the rest fall into secular decline.

He makes point to mention that AB demographics match the US.

No empire lasts forever. To think otherwise is foolhardy at best.


China as a nation and culture is thousands of years old.

The United States not even 500.


Having said that take mb SK bc Yukon and nwt and lets join a real country.

Western values align with the USA far more than Eastern Canada whose values align more with Europe.

[jazz]

No empire lasts forever. To think otherwise is foolhardy at best.


China as a nation and culture is thousands of years old.

The United States not even 500.


Having said that take mb SK bc Yukon and nwt and lets join a real country.

Western values align with the USA far more than Eastern Canada whose values align more with Europe.

Have a look through the video. China as a modern construct is only about as old as the US. 300 yrs. And its only been a economic power for about 30 yrs. Time is no measure of a modern empire. There is no comparing the empires of old to what the US has become. Does it last forever, who knows but I bet another few hundred yrs is a bet.

As Zeihan puts it that military is the ace in the hole. US can literally destroy any nation at will and not even break a sweat and yes that includes Russian and china. That's something new the world hasn't seen before.

When china can do carrier operations half a globe away competently for 50 yrs, then I will believe they are the next superpower.