Fun fact of the day ...

[furrowtickler]

Western Canadian canola crushers will be crying for canola by September 15th
The majority of canola is two weeks late at least . Hopefully they have to start buying at decent levels . They have lots of room in crush margins to pay up

[bucket]

Western Canadian canola crushers will be crying for canola by September 15th
The majority of canola is two weeks late at least . Hopefully they have to start buying at decent levels . They have lots of room in crush margins to pay up

But they won't. ...

[furrowtickler]

Grain cos buy low sell high !
Good luck to all !

Good luck to them finding canola to fill trains before October

[farmaholic]

"Finding canola to fill trains"...... So, again..... Do they have the canola sold before it's bought from us? How can they sell something they DON'T have if they don't know how much they will have to pay for it to buy it from us?
If they did pre-sell canola at $XX.XX/bu(notice how many digits are on left of the decimal point)....have the effectively put a ceiling on prices because they can't buy it from us for more than they sold it for?

Edit in, maybe some people think that theory/question is so stoopid it doesn't deserve a response. Enlighten me.
Weber, you've been watching and analyzing and involved in this Industry, what's the answer? Explain the process of grain being sold at the farmgate to being bought by importers. How can grain tenders be filled when the sellers(read GrainCos) don't know for certain what they will have to pay to buy it? Or, "here's what we're paying....take it or leave it?"

[Partners]

Always a few penny's premium when train is coming.

[Partners]

Good luck to them finding canola to fill trains before October

Remember the large carry over?
No issues..neighbor moving last yrs canola from bin to bin..
Mega bushels..i am sure he is not alone.

[furrowtickler]

Remember the large carry over?
No issues..neighbor moving last yrs canola from bin to bin..
Mega bushels..i am sure he is not alone.

That carry over which is half of what they think is not going to market at current prices . It’s in tight hands

[the big wheel]

That carry over which is half of what they think is not going to market at current prices . It’s in tight hands

It’s no where near what they claimed. Guys needed to pay the last cash advance before getting the new one. But now they extended the old one somehow. I don’t think some farms have that grain. The input mafia needed to be paid also otherwise broken knee caps. Lol
Maybe we re more like Russia than we think. Lol.

[farming101]

That carry over which is half of what they think is not going to market at current prices . It’s in tight hands

Maybe so, but some of the new crop will be in 'loose' hands...

In the first 2 weeks(actually up the the 18th) of August producer deliveries were almost 700 thousand tonnes. Safe to assume this is all old crop.
On track for one of the highest amounts delivered in August since 2011

[furrowtickler]

Always a few penny's premium when train is coming.

I have seen $.50 / bus

They have September contracts that will not get in . Those trains are ordered . A lot of Canola will not be swather for at least 10 days . It takes 12-14 days to cure on average.... math says most likely October
That’s if the weather is decent

[woodland]

All of our last years canola got delivered this month. More than a few guys around here did the same. Most guys are cleaned out around here now. I think the carryover is peanuts to what they say it is.

If the growing season ends sooner than later it’ll be a problem for how late things are here. There’s still flowers in lots of fields here.

[blueversi]

Plus the daily reports of stored bushels going up in smoke. The stockpile is getting lower everyday.

[farmaholic]

....none here. Sold for bin space, not because I "HAD"to. I'm not buying more bins for canola that may not rally hard in 2020.

But I did blow marketing the 2018 canola crop, ...my bad.

[dmlfarmer]

"Finding canola to fill trains"...... So, again..... Do they have the canola sold before it's bought from us? How can they sell something they DON'T have if they don't know how much they will have to pay for it to buy it from us?
If they did pre-sell canola at $XX.XX/bu(notice how many digits are on left of the decimal point)....have the effectively put a ceiling on prices because they can't buy it from us for more than they sold it for?

Edit in, maybe some people think that theory/question is so stoopid it doesn't deserve a response. Enlighten me.
Weber, you've been watching and analyzing and involved in this Industry, what's the answer? Explain the process of grain being sold at the farmgate to being bought by importers. How can grain tenders be filled when the sellers(read GrainCos) don't know for certain what they will have to pay to buy it? Or, "here's what we're paying....take it or leave it?"

You forget, grain companies have likely "bought" all the canola needed to meet sales commitments and crush needs from those farmers who priced their canola for September delivery. So the question is how hard will the buyers push farmers to meet their contract commitments for September delivery? Will farmers be on the hook to pay the difference between the real market price and the price they contracted for in order for the grain company to acquire what they need from the market? You ask how can grain companies sell something they don't have... isn't that what farmers do when they contract grain that is still in the field; or before it is even planted in some cases? If the question is applicable to companies, it must also be asked of farmers contracting before they have grain in the bin.

[farmaholic]

Good point dml, but do the GrainCo and ImportCo contracts have an "act of God" clause?
Does the GrainCo only sell 10%(or something reasonable) of expected purchases like Producers do of their production? As Producers get more comfortable with production quantity they may ramp up sales.

I wonder how much horse trading goes on sometimes. Now where did I put my tinfoil hat?