Where is this surplus ???

[Partners]

If and that’s a big if , there is that much grain and oilseeds on farm why are bin sales virtually non existent for this new crop ? Something does not add up at all

Very true..but the price stays the same..

[Sheepwheat]

I used to clean seed in winter. I was always amazed at the rich, ahem, well established farmers talking about how much grain they had sitting in storage. It blew my mind. Many, many times guys on here have said they are building bins because it pays to store. They would chuckle and say how they missed the peak, and say they just will store until it comes back up.

Again, devils advocate. I have heard these conversations too many times to count. Guys miss a market peak, and sit on it. There are a pile of farmers who don’t HAVE to sell for two, three four years if they don’t want to. At least around here. I think this is where the inventory comes from?

Good friend of mine sold a bit of wheat over 7 bucks, also canola crashed, he said heck with it, price dropped and he held the rest. He can afford to wait indefinitely. He has cash to seed at least two crops without harvesting or selling a bushel. Small farmer, no debt, no payments.

Crazy, but I think there is way more of this than we maybe accept.

Other thread guys said what about opportunity cost? If you got no payments and cash to farm for years, and inventory in the bins, who the heck cares about opportunity cost?

[Guest]

We used to
Try not to anymore
Bin space to dear and i hate bags

[Partners]

No fear canola will make it.
Accu weather first frost end of Sept...
But Sept will be a cold bitch...

[the big wheel]

I used to clean seed in winter. I was always amazed at the rich, ahem, well established farmers talking about how much grain they had sitting in storage. It blew my mind. Many, many times guys on here have said they are building bins because it pays to store. They would chuckle and say how they missed the peak, and say they just will store until it comes back up.

Again, devils advocate. I have heard these conversations too many times to count. Guys miss a market peak, and sit on it. There are a pile of farmers who don’t HAVE to sell for two, three four years if they don’t want to. At least around here. I think this is where the inventory comes from?

Good friend of mine sold a bit of wheat over 7 bucks, also canola crashed, he said heck with it, price dropped and he held the rest. He can afford to wait indefinitely. He has cash to seed at least two crops without harvesting or selling a bushel. Small farmer, no debt, no payments.

Crazy, but I think there is way more of this than we maybe accept.

Other thread guys said what about opportunity cost? If you got no payments and cash to farm for years, and inventory in the bins, who the heck cares about opportunity cost?

When was this that you cleaned grain? Maybe in your area but please don’t make a general statement about the whole unless you’ve cleaned throughout the province. Was it this year? Interesting you make these comments when you don’t grow canola just like you spoke about wheat when you didn't even sell to the board anyway.

There is no way they would have extended the advances unless there’s was some big shit happenning with big cases of advances. When companies went broke and fcc and banks wanted their money I bet advances were last in the list. That’s just one scenario. It makes zero sense to hold canola into this market although I don’t think there is such a problem getting rid of the canola as they say either. I think it’s a case of low carry over and a screw job by the grain cos and crushers I don’t see canola oil going down or is it?

[furrowtickler]

No fear canola will make it.
Accu weather first frost end of Sept...
But Sept will be a cold bitch...

First 2 frosts already did a lot of damage in areas .

[Partners]

First 2 frosts already did a lot of damage in areas .

Ok..if they forecast minus 3..it will be minus 10...

[furrowtickler]

Ok..if they forecast minus 3..it will be minus 10...

Lol yup I hear ya 👍

[farming101]

........I don’t see canola oil going down or is it?

Crude canola oil 8% under trend in June (trending down), refined 1% under trend in June(trending up)

[iceman]

There is no way they would have extended the advances unless there’s was some big shit happenning with big cases of advances. When companies went broke and fcc and banks wanted their money I bet advances were last in the list. That’s just one scenario. It makes zero sense to hold canola into this market although I don’t think there is such a problem getting rid of the canola as they say either.

I agree this isn’t passing the smell test

Iceman

[WiltonRanch]

I agree this isn’t passing the smell test

Iceman

Quite true. Election coming up and although skippy knows hardly any farmers would vote for his party he wants good optics going into the election.

[LEP]

Sorry Sheepwheat, I don't believe that in this day and age, any farm of commercial size has enough free cash to even seed two crops.

I would bet, the number who could seed 4 crops wouldn't represent very many acres.

[Sheepwheat]

Sorry Sheepwheat, I don't believe that in this day and age, any farm of commercial size has enough free cash to even seed two crops.

I would bet, the number who could seed 4 crops wouldn't represent very many acres.

So is a sub thousand acre farm with no debt and piles of cash not commercial enough? At what size does a farm count as commercial, whatever that means? There are LOTS of farms that don’t chase high priced land and newer than a dozen year old iron, and therefore have cash.

That does not mean they aren’t commercial or somehow less successful does it? Especially if they are flush with cash and inventory.

I agree a hundred percent that acre wise it probably doesn’t encompass a high proportion overall. But throw together a bunch of 1 and 2 and 3 thousand acre paid for farms with cash and inventory, and the point remains imo, that there is grain in the bins and plenty of it. Not many will admit their gross marketing failures over the past year! There is not much pride in admitting you have 9 dollar canola sitting there... lol

[LEP]

So is a sub thousand acre farm with no debt and piles of cash not commercial enough? At what size does a farm count as commercial, whatever that means? There are LOTS of farms that don’t chase high priced land and newer than a dozen year old iron, and therefore have cash.

That does not mean they aren’t commercial or somehow less successful does it? Especially if they are flush with cash and inventory.

I agree a hundred percent that acre wise it probably doesn’t encompass a high proportion overall. But throw together a bunch of 1 and 2 and 3 thousand acre paid for farms with cash and inventory, and the point remains imo, that there is grain in the bins and plenty of it. Not many will admit their gross marketing failures over the past year! There is not much pride in admitting you have 9 dollar canola sitting there... lol

I was an ag banker for a decade. So I say bullshit. For part of that time I was the provincial agrologist for a chartered bank and did literally hundreds of farm calls with the best customers in every corner of the province.

To say a 1,000 acre farm has $600 to $800,000 in cash in not impossible but definitely not common.

[Sheepwheat]

I was an ag banker for a decade. So I say bullshit. For part of that time I was the provincial agrologist for a chartered bank and did literally hundreds of farm calls with the best customers in every corner of the province.

To say a 1,000 acre farm has $600 to $800,000 in cash in not impossible but definitely not common.

I never said that. Sorry if I implied it somehow. Quite a few inherited farms out there who really did well not having payments and so on.