Where is this surplus ???

[iceman]

There is no way they would have extended the advances unless there’s was some big shit happenning with big cases of advances. When companies went broke and fcc and banks wanted their money I bet advances were last in the list. That’s just one scenario. It makes zero sense to hold canola into this market although I don’t think there is such a problem getting rid of the canola as they say either.

I agree this isn’t passing the smell test

Iceman

[WiltonRanch]

I agree this isn’t passing the smell test

Iceman

Quite true. Election coming up and although skippy knows hardly any farmers would vote for his party he wants good optics going into the election.

[LEP]

Sorry Sheepwheat, I don't believe that in this day and age, any farm of commercial size has enough free cash to even seed two crops.

I would bet, the number who could seed 4 crops wouldn't represent very many acres.

[Sheepwheat]

Sorry Sheepwheat, I don't believe that in this day and age, any farm of commercial size has enough free cash to even seed two crops.

I would bet, the number who could seed 4 crops wouldn't represent very many acres.

So is a sub thousand acre farm with no debt and piles of cash not commercial enough? At what size does a farm count as commercial, whatever that means? There are LOTS of farms that don’t chase high priced land and newer than a dozen year old iron, and therefore have cash.

That does not mean they aren’t commercial or somehow less successful does it? Especially if they are flush with cash and inventory.

I agree a hundred percent that acre wise it probably doesn’t encompass a high proportion overall. But throw together a bunch of 1 and 2 and 3 thousand acre paid for farms with cash and inventory, and the point remains imo, that there is grain in the bins and plenty of it. Not many will admit their gross marketing failures over the past year! There is not much pride in admitting you have 9 dollar canola sitting there... lol

[LEP]

So is a sub thousand acre farm with no debt and piles of cash not commercial enough? At what size does a farm count as commercial, whatever that means? There are LOTS of farms that don’t chase high priced land and newer than a dozen year old iron, and therefore have cash.

That does not mean they aren’t commercial or somehow less successful does it? Especially if they are flush with cash and inventory.

I agree a hundred percent that acre wise it probably doesn’t encompass a high proportion overall. But throw together a bunch of 1 and 2 and 3 thousand acre paid for farms with cash and inventory, and the point remains imo, that there is grain in the bins and plenty of it. Not many will admit their gross marketing failures over the past year! There is not much pride in admitting you have 9 dollar canola sitting there... lol

I was an ag banker for a decade. So I say bullshit. For part of that time I was the provincial agrologist for a chartered bank and did literally hundreds of farm calls with the best customers in every corner of the province.

To say a 1,000 acre farm has $600 to $800,000 in cash in not impossible but definitely not common.

[Sheepwheat]

I was an ag banker for a decade. So I say bullshit. For part of that time I was the provincial agrologist for a chartered bank and did literally hundreds of farm calls with the best customers in every corner of the province.

To say a 1,000 acre farm has $600 to $800,000 in cash in not impossible but definitely not common.

I never said that. Sorry if I implied it somehow. Quite a few inherited farms out there who really did well not having payments and so on.

[flea beetle]

[QUOTE=LEP;422140]I was an ag banker for a decade. So I say bullshit. For part of that time I was the provincial agrologist for a chartered bank and did literally hundreds of farm calls with the best customers in every corner of the province.

To say a 1,000 acre farm has $600 to $800,000 in cash in not impossible but definitely not common.[/QUOTE

Maybe you only saw the guys that had borrowed with the bank? A 1000 acre paid for farm wouldn't need a bank, and therefore wouldn't require a visit from the banks agrologist to check up and see if the farmer is doing things correctly? Your sample pool may have been skewed.

[LEP]

Actually met with a lot of deposit only customers as well as small medium and large borrowers.

Now I do believe there are those that carry over a portion of their crop. That grain may have one or several birthdays on the farm. I know a guy who in the 90's told me he had a bin of flax from the seventies. But it was only 2,000 bu.

I don't believe there are many who don't sell a bushel for years or store 2,3 or 4 years of grain without selling and still put in a crop ... just don't think there are many.

[farmaholic]

I bet there are people who are not on the high capital, high input, new iron treadmill.

[Guest]

I bet there are people who are not on the high capital, high input, new iron treadmill.

me too!

[helmsdale]

One neighbor in the area has 1300 seeded acres, 400,000+bu of steel storage, numerous large wooden bins, and a few quonsets to hide grain in if he runs short of room.

There's a few of those fellas around. However... if he has canola, and it's likely he does, it's been sitting there for 7+ years, so it's been included in annual carryover stats a few times.

[GDR]

One neighbor in the area has 1300 seeded acres, 400,000+bu of steel storage, numerous large wooden bins, and a few quonsets to hide grain in if he runs short of room.

There's a few of those fellas around. However... if he has canola, and it's likely he does, it's been sitting there for 7+ years, so it's been included in annual carryover stats a few times.

Wow, I wish I had enough storage for even one year without scrambling for bi

But If he's got 7+yr old canola I'm betting it isnt gonna flow out the auger too well.

I know where there is a bin of oats from the 70s, mostly mouse shit now. Know another guy who had full bins and didnt like the price of feed wheat so piled it on the ground but never sold it, well that's about 7 or 8 yrs ago, only place it's going is the manure spreader. Another guy last winter was selling barley from 2003 but it was actually decent shape. Hard to believe that guys can and do that but to each their own!