Where is this surplus ???

[flea beetle]

[QUOTE=LEP;422140]I was an ag banker for a decade. So I say bullshit. For part of that time I was the provincial agrologist for a chartered bank and did literally hundreds of farm calls with the best customers in every corner of the province.

To say a 1,000 acre farm has $600 to $800,000 in cash in not impossible but definitely not common.[/QUOTE

Maybe you only saw the guys that had borrowed with the bank? A 1000 acre paid for farm wouldn't need a bank, and therefore wouldn't require a visit from the banks agrologist to check up and see if the farmer is doing things correctly? Your sample pool may have been skewed.

[LEP]

Actually met with a lot of deposit only customers as well as small medium and large borrowers.

Now I do believe there are those that carry over a portion of their crop. That grain may have one or several birthdays on the farm. I know a guy who in the 90's told me he had a bin of flax from the seventies. But it was only 2,000 bu.

I don't believe there are many who don't sell a bushel for years or store 2,3 or 4 years of grain without selling and still put in a crop ... just don't think there are many.

[farmaholic]

I bet there are people who are not on the high capital, high input, new iron treadmill.

[Guest]

I bet there are people who are not on the high capital, high input, new iron treadmill.

me too!

[helmsdale]

One neighbor in the area has 1300 seeded acres, 400,000+bu of steel storage, numerous large wooden bins, and a few quonsets to hide grain in if he runs short of room.

There's a few of those fellas around. However... if he has canola, and it's likely he does, it's been sitting there for 7+ years, so it's been included in annual carryover stats a few times.

[GDR]

One neighbor in the area has 1300 seeded acres, 400,000+bu of steel storage, numerous large wooden bins, and a few quonsets to hide grain in if he runs short of room.

There's a few of those fellas around. However... if he has canola, and it's likely he does, it's been sitting there for 7+ years, so it's been included in annual carryover stats a few times.

Wow, I wish I had enough storage for even one year without scrambling for bi

But If he's got 7+yr old canola I'm betting it isnt gonna flow out the auger too well.

I know where there is a bin of oats from the 70s, mostly mouse shit now. Know another guy who had full bins and didnt like the price of feed wheat so piled it on the ground but never sold it, well that's about 7 or 8 yrs ago, only place it's going is the manure spreader. Another guy last winter was selling barley from 2003 but it was actually decent shape. Hard to believe that guys can and do that but to each their own!

[GDR]

P and H used to store canola and flax for us !

Kept canola and flax there for quite a few years !

Free storage good ole days !

Did they actually store it or just not pay you till you wanted to price it?

[furrowtickler]

If you have that kinda cash why would you bother even farming ??

[Guest]

Called storage but They let us price it when ever we wanted !

Was called “Blackbooking” in the good old days

[blackpowder]

Using bins as safe deposit boxes went the way of the wheat board.

[FarmJunkie]

My thots exactly Furrow

[farmaholic]

My thots exactly Furrow

600-800K cash in an active farm is kinda ****-all, even if you quit. Have to sell the iron and maybe land to top up the retirement fund.
Even that amount for general public isn't a pile of money these days.
Houses are pricey, vehicles are pricey, there is no ROI on money in the bank, may as well continue to bang your head against the wall and risk it trying to make some money.

[errolanderson]

Group . . . We are heading into a global grain glut this crop year. Canada’s depressed grain prices are a reflection of this. India is now an exporter of pulses, and until that changes, demand for Cdn pulses ie: peas will remain muted. Russia is now battling the Ukraine for wheat market share. This has now become a battle for who can export the cheapest in the Black Sea region. MWE wheat tested fresh contract lows this past week. The U.S. is still king of corn, but that is about it for grain markets.

Now stir-in a currency war in-progress. The decline in the Brazilian real continues to place pressure on U.S. soybean values. This has contributed direct pressure on canola.

The U.S. tariff war has changed global trade patterns, some permanently (IMO).

I know my comments haven’t been popular, but deflation have these markets by-the-throat. Central bankers can’t say the word because it is admitting their inflation policies have been defeated. This is the elephant-in-the-room. Interest rates globally are heading more negative (IMO). This is a reflection of massive debt and insane money printing that is now costing us all.

Personally, I’m a promoter of moving the grain via basis signals and replace with paper if you want to remain unpriced. If managed properly, this is far less risky strategy than speculating on unpriced grain storage at home.

In my view, commercial storage and feedlot space will get tight by October. Domestic barley sales will plug within 6 weeks, then it is next year country for movement. There will likely be more feed wheat and durum in the mix. Feedlot barley bids do reflect a slight premium for Jan movement, and a larger premium for April. But you will have to wait for your cheque. Another strategy, move the barley and replace with long term corn calls. I still miss the Western Barley contract. It worked . . . .

My apologies if I have pissed some agrivillers off, but I am trying to call a spade-a-spade in the current market place.

[Sheepwheat]

Think of farming with no payments at all. Put the payment cash into your bottom line. These guys are or at least can be making a killing farming. That is why they still farm. To add exponentially to their kitty.

Not much risk if you can suck up a few disaster years.

[blackpowder]

Sheep. They can break even for a decade or two.

Errol. 80% of 19 wheat long gone on paper. Just have to thresh it lol.