OPINION | What's really holding back the oilsands? It's not the bill of goods you're

[jazz]

Canada isnt all oilsands chuck. Thats one part of our ff mix. Super expansion of the sands is probably limited due to capital costs, demand and the fact the US has increased its production, but incremental increases are going to continue.

But canada has lots of other oil too and a sht ton of natural gas.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Solar PV based on my long term estimates is much cheaper than what Saskpower rates are and will be. With or without incentives or subsidies.

Numerous new installations happening across Saskatchewan as many electricians are starting to install solar systems.

Prices are coming down.

If you want to discuss subsidies lets look at all the incentives and subsidies to the fossil fuel industry. You never seem to bring those up! LOL

You missed the point completely. I was trying to make a theoretical analogy based on something you could understand. Yes, based on your current estimates it is much cheaper, and payback is quick. Just like investing in oilsands a decade or more ago. Then shale came along and that payback on oilsands stretched out much longer, new "installations" slowed considerably. But existing production remained online.
Now, theoritically, if SaskPower changes to smart meter billing based on supply and demand and power at noon is almost worthless, and at dusk and dawn is really expensive to reflect reality, and that change serves to double your payback period, but it still cashflows, I assume you would keep your panels on line and attempt to still recover your costs? The same way existing oil sands production stays on line. And if the pipelines and infrastructure had been in place much sooner, and even more projects had of been completed because they were economical at full world prices thanks to unrestricted access, instead of never getting off the drawing board, they too would remain on line during this period of low prices thanks to shale.

Has nothing to do with subsidies, and I never said a word about subsidies in this post. But what you say about solar installations continuing to go up, is exactly what will cause the economics of solar grid tie to go down, just like additional oilsands production without matching infrastructure did to the local price of oil. When enough solar is installed that peak midday production exceeds instantaneous demand, the marginal value of any additional solar drops to negative. Same as when the pipeline infrastructure is full.

[jazz]

Numerous new installations happening across Saskatchewan as many electricians are starting to install solar systems.

The land requirements have been pointed out to you numerous times chuck. How do you resolve that.

Plus what I read, lithium storage is garbage and it wont do the trick.

If you are talking about a few seasonal panels on homes then sure why not. But widescale generation is a fiction.

[Guest]

Who the **** gets their info from the state broadcaster propaganda machine ?????

[farming101]

Market forces and access

[chuckChuck]

101's posted graphs explain what has happened with Canada's over dependence on a single market.

High prices drove new technology and the shale revolution in the US. Nobody expected the US to become an exporter. It happened quickly without much time for Canada and the oil sands to build infrastructure and find new markets.

Abundant better quality shale oil that is easier and cheaper to produce makes the oil sands much less viable.

If increasing EV sales keep oil prices low into the future, then the oil sands will languish as uneconomic. Market forces of supply and demand at work.

[farming101]

101's posted graphs explain what has happened with Canada's over dependence on a single market.

High prices drove new technology and the shale revolution in the US. Nobody expected the US to become an exporter. It happened quickly without much time for Canada and the oil sands to build infrastructure and find new markets.

Abundant better quality shale oil that is easier and cheaper to produce makes the oil sands much less viable.

If increasing EV sales keep oil prices low into the future, then the oil sands will languish as uneconomic. Market forces of supply and demand at work.

EV's have nothing to do with the price of oil.

World oil consumption is increasing yoy. On average the increase has been and is forecast to be about 450 million barrels per year from 2018 - 2020.

By 2020 it is forecast the world will go through 37.35 billion barrels of oil a year.

[chuckChuck]

Currently EVs have little to do with declining demand. But the long term forecast is that EVs will cut in to demand.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

EV's have nothing to do with the price of oil.

World oil consumption is increasing yoy. On average the increase has been and is forecast to be about 450 million barrels per year from 2018 - 2020.

By 2020 it is forecast the world will go through 37.35 billion barrels of oil a year.

Yes, but trying to explain that to the anti fossil fuel club is pointless. I worked out the numbers for him above, but obviously he didn't bother reading it. By his logic, I need to switch our gas stove, dryer, and hot water tank out for electric to save the world. Because fossil fuels burnt in a power plant where I can't see or hear it doesn't produce CO2, only when I burn it closer to home does it emit CO2.

Once again Chuck, just the increase in demand of fossil fuels exceeds all of the installed renewables approximately every year and a half. The only thing EV's are accomplishing is lowering gas tax revenue for maintaining roads.

[farming101]

Total demand is forecast to continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Ev's or not.

Even the production of an EV requires oil. Lots of it