USDA report triggers rally

[TechAnalyst]

At 11am CDT today the USDA released the Sept 1 stocks report with very significant surprises. Prices have responded favourably (so far).

The Sept 1 corn stocks (which will be the 18/19 crop year carryover) were 2.114 Bil Bu compared to an estimate on Sept 12th by the USDA that it would be 2.445. Not only was it 331 mil bu below what they forecast just two and a half weeks ago but it came in 256 mil bu below the lowest pre report estimate.

The Sept 1 soybean stocks came out at 913 mil bu compared to an estimate on Sept 12th by the USDA that it would be 1.005 bil bu. The 92 mil bu reduction was enough for them the revise the 2018 soybean crop lower by 116 mil bu. The lowest pre report estimate was 940 mil bu, aiding in the price strength.

It boggles the mind that there could be such significant misses by the USDA just a few weeks ago.

With the production problems in 2019, this should have a impact lasting more than a few hours...

[fjlip]

The LIES made some rich pricks millions, Now they make millions going the other way! Futures make money for traders when they change, up or down does not matter.

[farmaholic]

The LIES made some rich pricks millions, Now they make millions going the other way! Futures make money for traders when they change, up or down does not matter.

....and you are dispensible collateral damage!
Or are we supposed to play the game too?

[furrowtickler]

At 11am CDT today the USDA released the Sept 1 stocks report with very significant surprises. Prices have responded favourably (so far).

The Sept 1 corn stocks (which will be the 18/19 crop year carryover) were 2.114 Bil Bu compared to an estimate on Sept 12th by the USDA that it would be 2.445. Not only was it 331 mil bu below what they forecast just two and a half weeks ago but it came in 256 mil bu below the lowest pre report estimate.

The Sept 1 soybean stocks came out at 913 mil bu compared to an estimate on Sept 12th by the USDA that it would be 1.005 bil bu. The 92 mil bu reduction was enough for them the revise the 2018 soybean crop lower by 116 mil bu. The lowest pre report estimate was 940 mil bu, aiding in the price strength.

It boggles the mind that there could be such significant misses by the USDA just a few weeks ago.

With the production problems in 2019, this should have a impact lasting more than a few hours...

Surprises ????? Seriously !! To who ????? Lol wow 😂
This is just the start to production cuts .
Wait till stats can finally realizes that there is less than half the carry over from 2018 they magically think there is lol

[Guest]

It will be ;
“Holy **** , where is all that canola”

[Guest]

nice to see these speculating arseholes scrambling around with their pants around their ankles

[FarmJunkie]

Hedge fund assholes gotta make millionaires billionaires. Can’t do that if u can’t rig the markets or system in general.

[farmaholic]

nice to see these speculating arseholes scrambling around with their pants around their ankles

You mean they never covered their positions with calls or puts?

Deliver now!!! On a basis contract and just keep rolling futures.
Yup, give em the grain and you keep the pricing risk!
No need to increase bids that way!

[farmaholic]

Where is John DePape?

[TechAnalyst]

Unfortunately the USDA gets the final say for US crops and market participants react as if what they estimate is gospel.

It is uncommon for them to release bullish information so it was a refreshing surprise.

I didn't think pointing out the reason for a positive price move on a commodity market forum would be a bad thing. Especially if it turns out to be the start of the truth coming out.

[malleefarmer]

Not that we matter jak shit but personally I’m tipping Australian harvest to be as bad or less than last year think usda has it pegged pretty high at moment. Guess bulls need feeding

Unfortunately the USDA gets the final say for US crops and market participants react as if what they estimate is gospel.

It is uncommon for them to release bullish information so it was a refreshing surprise.

I didn't think pointing out the reason for a positive price move on a commodity market forum would be a bad thing. Especially if it turns out to be the start of the truth coming out.

[furrowtickler]

Unfortunately the USDA gets the final say for US crops and market participants react as if what they estimate is gospel.

It is uncommon for them to release bullish information so it was a refreshing surprise.

I didn't think pointing out the reason for a positive price move on a commodity market forum would be a bad thing. Especially if it turns out to be the start of the truth coming out.

Nope not a bad thing at all . They have no choice but to start to adjust numbers
Yes it is refreshing to see 👍
But surprising no .... the market numbers the USDA came out with in June were so far out of reality they had to start changing sooner or later.
Stats can and Canada's carry over stocks are next to be adjusted. The whole market has been lying about canola especially.

[farming101]

Canola stocks:

If you account for every bushel it could be said there was lots of old crop canola.
Was it all available for use and in the right place? No.
Likely by the time new crop started hitting the grate the average farm had only a 1350 bin of old crop left.
I think that is realistic. Was it for sale at the going price? No. Unavailable. Price not high enough. Strong hands

[errolanderson]

Welcomed breath of fresh air from USDA yesterday . . . . Corn breaking higher, which is significant. Corn is 'grand poohbah water-buffalo' of grain markets.

December gap fills around $3.92 1/2, but $4 resistance appears in-the-gunsights (IMO).

[furrowtickler]

Welcomed breath of fresh air from USDA yesterday . . . . Corn breaking higher, which is significant. Corn is 'grand poohbah water-buffalo' of grain markets.

December gap fills around $3.92 1/2, but $4 resistance appears in-the-gunsights (IMO).

Yes glad to see reality kicking in.
Most knew the numbers were way overestimated since late June. Sooner or later this had to happen 👍