A write off?

[farming101]

Just my own fears in print, but am thinking as much as 5% of the canola crop may never see a combine.
Green/tough/only just swathed canola is not going to get into shape with these continued waves of unsettled weather every 5-7 days.

I realize many areas did not deal with delayed growth in the spring due to drought but lots of areas did.
Having canola germinate on June 21 and expect to get it ready in a cool fall might be asking a bit too much

[beaverdam]

You forgot the "1" in front of the "5",,, 15%, there fixed it for you.


The latest Sask Crop Report states only 38% of Saskatchewan's canola has been harvested.
I don't know numbers from Alberta, but I'd be surprised if the percentage was higher, especially considering what little canola is grown in the sun belt in the south of the province.

[ajl]

Harvested dry canola between Oct 19 and 23 last year NE Edmonton after 3 snows. The land was sandy so excess water drained down.

[the big wheel]

And the price goes down??????wtf

[Sheepwheat]

That’s how my flax is. I don’t think I’ll get a single bushel out of it. Lots of canola is like this too. It either won’t get combined this fall, and I can’t imagine there are any seeds left in it now.

Brutal. Guys who have never dreamed of even come close to leaving crop out, are for sure going to this year.

[grefer]

And then there is the canola that just gets put through the combine because it will. Saw it happening here yesterday. Three colors to the field. Almost black in the all low spots where it froze in August. The normal tan color on the perimeters of the frozen areas where it had moisture to germinate in the spring and green where it germinated in the end of June. Sprayed with a helicopter and didnt kill it.

[Robertbarlage]

You can combine in January . Just saying. But good god I hope not!

[farming101]

LOL. Price went up $2.90/t after this thread was started. (It has since fell back)

[furrowtickler]

And then there is the canola that just gets put through the combine because it will. Saw it happening here yesterday. Three colors to the field. Almost black in the all low spots where it froze in August. The normal tan color on the perimeters of the frozen areas where it had moisture to germinate in the spring and green where it germinated in the end of June. Sprayed with a helicopter and didnt kill it.

There is a lot of that every where.
It’s not just a few areas .
Canola yields in many areas north and north east of here have been slashed by 50% .
Some will never see a combine .
NW of here there is big yields that completely missed the August frost and had near double the rain fall at critical times this summer . Those areas extremely fortunate.
Very very wide range of yield and quality in the whole NW Sask .
Some areas had 4 in of rain of less others had 12 plus .
We were in our very typical dry belt, but are getting average yields due to good soil moisture from last falls snow/ wet harvest . Good times lol

[woodland]

My buddy finished his canola yesterday. 450 acres yielded a whopping 3800 bushels. Mostly drowned out but at least he said he didn’t have to worry about plugging ......... only getting stuck in any low areas.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

My buddy finished his canola yesterday. 450 acres yielded a whopping 3800 bushels. Mostly drowned out but at least he said he didn’t have to worry about plugging ......... only getting stuck in any low areas.

Woodland, you have indicated that you are transitioning to more cow feed and less grain, and after successive years of this, I expect some of your neighbors must be thinking the same thing? Throw in some mediocre grain prices, and decent cattle prices, and I expect there are a lot of mixed farms on the fringe (wet/dry/cold/hilly/poor soil etc.)that are having second thoughts about grain. Or if they aren't, their bankers might be.

A year or two of shorter growing seasons can be chalked up to an anomaly, but this is looking more like a trend than an exception.

Not sure how to get a handle on how big an area this might include, and if it is significant enough to affect total production.

Could we look at acreage expansion since the BSE era and assume that most of that came from land that was possibly better suited to livestock in the long run?

I know out here, enthusiasm is waning, and cattle numbers seem to be making a comeback.

[grassfarmer]

AB5, for sure lots of acres were pulled out of grazing/cattle feed production since BSE all across the Prairies and it makes sense that when grain prices slump guys will start to second guess their decision to break up what should have stayed in grass. Problem is cattle numbers are not rising and cattle prices are not strong - going forward this Fall's sales will prove that I think. One thing that has hindered cattle profitability in recent years has been the increase in forage prices - as a result of less acres growing hay to sell as well as regional droughts. If a lot of acres swung back to cattle feed production prices might collapse and that could encourage cattle expansion. Problem is we are going around in circles - whether it's the rancher, the hay grower or the grain farmer that is taking the beating and selling for less than cost of production that year. Our Ag policies aren't working (and haven't been working for a long time) to return sustainable net farm income to producers in any of the 3 sectors consistently and that's not good enough.

[woodland]

Woodland, you have indicated that you are transitioning to more cow feed and less grain, and after successive years of this, I expect some of your neighbors must be thinking the same thing? Throw in some mediocre grain prices, and decent cattle prices, and I expect there are a lot of mixed farms on the fringe (wet/dry/cold/hilly/poor soil etc.)that are having second thoughts about grain. Or if they aren't, their bankers might be.

A year or two of shorter growing seasons can be chalked up to an anomaly, but this is looking more like a trend than an exception.

Not sure how to get a handle on how big an area this might include, and if it is significant enough to affect total production.

Could we look at acreage expansion since the BSE era and assume that most of that came from land that was possibly better suited to livestock in the long run?

I know out here, enthusiasm is waning, and cattle numbers seem to be making a comeback.

We’re increasing the cow numbers but hardly anyone else is. Nobody wants to deal with cows all winter and the insurance coverage makes the grain gig look much more appealing. I know my wife and folks weren’t impressed about breeding 200 heifers but with the mountain of silage bales we made (not by choice) I said it was this or custom feeding cows. Lesser of two evils apparently.

I do not see cow numbers increasing any time soon unless a pound of calf is worth the same as a bushel of barley.

YMMV

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It may not be about what they "want" to do, it may be what the weather forces them to do. Or the subsequent farmer of the land has to do to make a living if the current operator has too many successive weather related crop failures.

[woodland]

It may not be about what they "want" to do, it may be what the weather forces them to do. Or the subsequent farmer of the land has to do to make a living if the current operator has too many successive weather related crop failures.

As I am sitting in a shed with more rain coming down with a load of 20+% barley on the truck and alfalfa seeded this spring currently cut getting washed after drowning and getting massive washouts after the monsoon season I don’t know which is easier? I know some folks west of us lost all their winter feed to a horrible late hail storm and are sending critters out to be custom fed. Another friend lost his feed supply after everything drowned out since he’s on mostly lower ground.

If our ground wasn’t so ugly (hills, muskeg, bush) we would’ve probably switched out of cows as well. Not keeping water and feed flowing and critters happy at -30 or in three feet of mud in the spring is very appealing.

I feel Ma Nature has sucked the fun out of most things here as the last 5 years have been one long battle. Harvest was always hard but I looked forward to it and now I just dread it all. Only got 100 acres of dry nice hay made out of 1,600 acres this year and still 400 to cut. Not a bushel of grain under 20% and only at 50% done.

Enough of my depressing situation .......... how’s things out your way AF5?



Barley straw ropes out of a rotary in one of the riper fields today.