A write off?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

My buddy finished his canola yesterday. 450 acres yielded a whopping 3800 bushels. Mostly drowned out but at least he said he didn’t have to worry about plugging ......... only getting stuck in any low areas.

Woodland, you have indicated that you are transitioning to more cow feed and less grain, and after successive years of this, I expect some of your neighbors must be thinking the same thing? Throw in some mediocre grain prices, and decent cattle prices, and I expect there are a lot of mixed farms on the fringe (wet/dry/cold/hilly/poor soil etc.)that are having second thoughts about grain. Or if they aren't, their bankers might be.

A year or two of shorter growing seasons can be chalked up to an anomaly, but this is looking more like a trend than an exception.

Not sure how to get a handle on how big an area this might include, and if it is significant enough to affect total production.

Could we look at acreage expansion since the BSE era and assume that most of that came from land that was possibly better suited to livestock in the long run?

I know out here, enthusiasm is waning, and cattle numbers seem to be making a comeback.

[grassfarmer]

AB5, for sure lots of acres were pulled out of grazing/cattle feed production since BSE all across the Prairies and it makes sense that when grain prices slump guys will start to second guess their decision to break up what should have stayed in grass. Problem is cattle numbers are not rising and cattle prices are not strong - going forward this Fall's sales will prove that I think. One thing that has hindered cattle profitability in recent years has been the increase in forage prices - as a result of less acres growing hay to sell as well as regional droughts. If a lot of acres swung back to cattle feed production prices might collapse and that could encourage cattle expansion. Problem is we are going around in circles - whether it's the rancher, the hay grower or the grain farmer that is taking the beating and selling for less than cost of production that year. Our Ag policies aren't working (and haven't been working for a long time) to return sustainable net farm income to producers in any of the 3 sectors consistently and that's not good enough.

[woodland]

Woodland, you have indicated that you are transitioning to more cow feed and less grain, and after successive years of this, I expect some of your neighbors must be thinking the same thing? Throw in some mediocre grain prices, and decent cattle prices, and I expect there are a lot of mixed farms on the fringe (wet/dry/cold/hilly/poor soil etc.)that are having second thoughts about grain. Or if they aren't, their bankers might be.

A year or two of shorter growing seasons can be chalked up to an anomaly, but this is looking more like a trend than an exception.

Not sure how to get a handle on how big an area this might include, and if it is significant enough to affect total production.

Could we look at acreage expansion since the BSE era and assume that most of that came from land that was possibly better suited to livestock in the long run?

I know out here, enthusiasm is waning, and cattle numbers seem to be making a comeback.

We’re increasing the cow numbers but hardly anyone else is. Nobody wants to deal with cows all winter and the insurance coverage makes the grain gig look much more appealing. I know my wife and folks weren’t impressed about breeding 200 heifers but with the mountain of silage bales we made (not by choice) I said it was this or custom feeding cows. Lesser of two evils apparently.

I do not see cow numbers increasing any time soon unless a pound of calf is worth the same as a bushel of barley.

YMMV

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It may not be about what they "want" to do, it may be what the weather forces them to do. Or the subsequent farmer of the land has to do to make a living if the current operator has too many successive weather related crop failures.

[woodland]

It may not be about what they "want" to do, it may be what the weather forces them to do. Or the subsequent farmer of the land has to do to make a living if the current operator has too many successive weather related crop failures.

As I am sitting in a shed with more rain coming down with a load of 20+% barley on the truck and alfalfa seeded this spring currently cut getting washed after drowning and getting massive washouts after the monsoon season I don’t know which is easier? I know some folks west of us lost all their winter feed to a horrible late hail storm and are sending critters out to be custom fed. Another friend lost his feed supply after everything drowned out since he’s on mostly lower ground.

If our ground wasn’t so ugly (hills, muskeg, bush) we would’ve probably switched out of cows as well. Not keeping water and feed flowing and critters happy at -30 or in three feet of mud in the spring is very appealing.

I feel Ma Nature has sucked the fun out of most things here as the last 5 years have been one long battle. Harvest was always hard but I looked forward to it and now I just dread it all. Only got 100 acres of dry nice hay made out of 1,600 acres this year and still 400 to cut. Not a bushel of grain under 20% and only at 50% done.

Enough of my depressing situation .......... how’s things out your way AF5?



Barley straw ropes out of a rotary in one of the riper fields today.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

If only things were progressing that well around here.

About 5% done harvest, and that was much too tough to even get a test. Currently all buried under snow again, and supposed to snow and or rain again tonight or tomorrow. Incredible crops, in spite of serious frost damage. Frost from Oct 1, when everything should have been way beyond being susceptible had we had any heat all summer.

We were never nearly as wet as you guys were/are. It rained nearly daily, but just enough to be a nuisance, only lost an inconsequential amount of acres from the biggest June rains.

I managed to ruin most of the hay, there were some very brief windows of opportunity to get dry hay without rain, but they required light hay crops, and disregarding the forecasts.

Had intended to get out of cows this year( intended yet again, I should say), but not sure if there is going to be a market for mediocre hay( OK, some is much less than mediocre). Might need to feed it to the cows again. Most of the time, I'm happy to have cows around, but during seeding and harvest, I'm already stretched too thin as a one man operation, without sick calves during seeding, and constantly needing to move to new grass/stubble/hay fields at this time of year.

It was good to see grass growing as lush as it did all summer, after the drought of the past few years, I think it was still growing better in Sept this year, than at any point in the past few years.

Firmly invested into grain production, so not planning to change course, but may need to rethink growing mostly long season crops in this environment.
But not firmly enough to make permanent investments in grain infrastructure. As much as I want to believe Chucks promises of weather improvement, the pessimist in me just won't allow me to bet the farm on it.

Regarding your straw picture, this is my first year with rotary separation ( Lexion hybrid), and in this extreme tough wheat straw( could wring water out of it the first day we tried), wow does it take some power compared to walkers. Rotor belt slip has been the limiting factor.

[grassfarmer]

Hope you get a break out west you guys. I'm starting to think like farmaholic - "wouldn't it be nice if it didn't matter"?

[farmaholic]

Try to keep your chin up Grassfarmer.
I know it must be hard to do given what southern Manitoba just got.
But you are right- "insert cliche"

[grassfarmer]

Try to keep your chin up Grassfarmer.
I know it must be hard to do given what southern Manitoba just got.
But you are right- "insert cliche"

Have to keep the chin up Farma, don't want a mouthful of snow!

[LEP]

Just started canola. Poor start, not much rain, variable emergence.

So far yield in the single digits. I have done 14 acres and just covered the window in the back of the cab.

Atleast it's dry.