Zeihan

[dmlfarmer]

You don't know jack about oil or even your own country. The pipelines to tidewater, TMX, EE and NG would have added at lest $10 to the price differential because the product would be pointed at multiple markets. With Venezuela crude dropping off it was the perfect opportunity to grab market share.

They aren't just trying to move the oil, they are trying to increase its value. And Trudeau blocked that with his stupid bills, carbon tax. TMX is NOT built, not even close.

Well, we know for sure Jazz is a real farmer given his logic all you have to do is produce more and prices will go up. That logic has worked real well for farmers hasn't it.

He ignores the fact that demand for commodity is the primary driver. He ignores the fact that WCS has to be upgraded before it can be handled by most refineries and not all potential world markets have upgrading capacity. Hell even China is just at the point of testing upgrading facilities and even if the pipeline was finished tomorrow would not be online to accept unlimited amounts of WCS.

He ignores the fact that there is a current global gut of high quality oil/energy which has driven down the price and adding more lower quality crude will not increase world price or even reduce the differential. You need to create/develop a demand for WCS in order for price to go up. Simply forcing more on existing markets and hoping prices go up is fool hardy.

As a ag comparison, compare WCS oil and TI crude to malt and feed barley. You are not going to increase the price of feed barley by producing more or shipping more if the real demand is just for for more malt. Unless there is a need/use for more feed barley, prices will actually decrease until world demand for feed barley goes up.

[jazz]

Well, we know for sure Jazz is a real farmer given his logic all you have to do is produce more and prices will go up. That logic has worked real well for farmers hasn't it

Do you sell all your crop to one company? Never hauled a little further for a better price or someone who could take it sooner or a little better deal on grade? Or maybe you are an old CWB die hard.

That's what the oil companies are tyring to do. They aren't trying to swamp the world with crude. They are nibbling at probably a $10 incremental increase in the differential by having a marketing choice.

And you better check the oil markets again. Venezuela off line permanently, US leaving the ME so it will eventually be a powered keg over there. China and SE asia growth. Only a matter of time before the price spikes.

[furrowtickler]

Well, we know for sure Jazz is a real farmer given his logic all you have to do is produce more and prices will go up. That logic has worked real well for farmers hasn't it.

He ignores the fact that demand for commodity is the primary driver. He ignores the fact that WCS has to be upgraded before it can be handled by most refineries and not all potential world markets have upgrading capacity. Hell even China is just at the point of testing upgrading facilities and even if the pipeline was finished tomorrow would not be online to accept unlimited amounts of WCS.

He ignores the fact that there is a current global gut of high quality oil/energy which has driven down the price and adding more lower quality crude will not increase world price or even reduce the differential. You need to create/develop a demand for WCS in order for price to go up. Simply forcing more on existing markets and hoping prices go up is fool hardy.

As a ag comparison, compare WCS oil and TI crude to malt and feed barley. You are not going to increase the price of feed barley by producing more or shipping more if the real demand is just for for more malt. Unless there is a need/use for more feed barley, prices will actually decrease until world demand for feed barley goes up.

Well growing less sure don’t pay the bills... ask guys that lost yield to frost or from lack of rain .
Just in case you don’t know 20 bus / ac canola does not make money ... has not for decades

[jazz]

Sure as hell doesnt sound like those green jobs are happening;


Canadian oil and condensate production is expected to grow from 4.1 million bbls/d this year to 6.1 million bbls/d in 2040, then surge to 9.6 million bbls/d by 2050.
“Canada’s 5.4 million-bbl/d increase in production by 2050 is a result of oilsands development, particularly toward the end of the projection period, as easily accessible global resources are increasingly depleted and global oil prices gradually increase,” the EIA said. Its reference case predicts Brent oil pricing to average US$100/bbl in 2050.

Guess there is demand for oil after all, as anyone with half a brain can see.

https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2019/9/canadian-oil-production-spike-between-2040-2050-eia/ Canadian oil production to spike between 2040-2050: EIA

[chuckChuck]

Sure as hell doesnt sound like those green jobs are happening;


Canadian oil and condensate production is expected to grow from 4.1 million bbls/d this year to 6.1 million bbls/d in 2040, then surge to 9.6 million bbls/d by 2050.
“Canada’s 5.4 million-bbl/d increase in production by 2050 is a result of oilsands development, particularly toward the end of the projection period, as easily accessible global resources are increasingly depleted and global oil prices gradually increase,” the EIA said. Its reference case predicts Brent oil pricing to average US$100/bbl in 2050.

Guess there is demand for oil after all, as anyone with half a brain can see.

https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2019/9/canadian-oil-production-spike-between-2040-2050-eia/ Canadian oil production to spike between 2040-2050: EIA

Jazz, That's just a forecast based on a model done by an economist. You don't believe in forecasts, models or economists do you? LOL

[jazz]

Jazz, That's just a forecast based on a model done by an economist. You don't believe in forecasts, models or economists do you? LOL

Just the ones who live in socialist Marxist academia fantasy land. Like all climate change folks.

Prove it wrong chuck.

The article even says while renewables are growing fast they will not be able to supply the worlds energy needs.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Jazz, That's just a forecast based on a model done by an economist. You don't believe in forecasts, models or economists do you? LOL

Well done Chuck, after years of study, you have finally used the word believe in almost its correct context. Just need to remove the word "in". That word implies that someone denies the very existence of economists or models.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Just the ones who live in socialist Marxist academia fantasy land. Like all climate change folks.

Prove it wrong chuck.

The article even says while renewables are growing fast they will not be able to supply the worlds energy needs.

And in spite of all the hype, which leads gullible folks such as certain Agriville posters to think renewables are already taking over, their growth doesn't even cover total energy demand growth. Which is why fossil fuel energy production continues to increase.

[jazz]

And in spite of all the hype, which leads gullible folks such as certain Agriville posters to think renewables are already taking over, their growth doesn't even cover total energy demand growth. Which is why fossil fuel energy production continues to increase.

Without immediate work on nuclear plants (which the idiotic left movement killed) or some wildly lucky break through in fusion (which has been under research for 40 yrs), its oil and NG for the foreseeable future likely a century or more. Canada stands to really rock this if we can clear out the dead weight in this country first.

[the big wheel]

Jazz was hired by the western separatist group. And don’t bullshit you aren’t.