Zeihan

[jazz]

This is an older vid that popped up on the net but it is very interesting because in this talk he spends a lot of time on Canada and Alberta and really gets into the reasons why our confederation is unstable. I don't think I have seen him go into the details as much as this before.

[macdon02]

Fracturing into smaller states is the big talk, even China is getting mentioned, HK being the tip of the iceberg. Borders shift. Look at a globe from the 1800s. Heck look at pre WW2 and today. Change is constant, nothing to fear.

[bucket]

Fracturing into smaller states is the big talk, even China is getting mentioned, HK being the tip of the iceberg. Borders shift. Look at a globe from the 1800s. Heck look at pre WW2 and today. Change is constant, nothing to fear.

If you look at Europe and how countries changed their borders over time its really not that much of a stretch for a young country like Canada to go through growing pains and split....It can usually be blamed on the leadership of the country....Trudeau in 4 years has rekindled the separatist sentiment in both western Canada and Quebec ...his only legacy is to divide Canadians by his elitist attitude...

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Fracturing into smaller states is the big talk, even China is getting mentioned, HK being the tip of the iceberg. Borders shift. Look at a globe from the 1800s. Heck look at pre WW2 and today. Change is constant, nothing to fear.

So many people think that just because something has been constant for their entire lives, it will, and should always remain that way. Borders, markets, weather, climate, development, or lack thereof, etc etc. Yet when you take an objective look at history, chaos and disruption are the norm, not the exception. Living in post WWII in the western world during one of the most benign periods of both weather, and conflict, has isolated most of us from the reality.

Isn't it also funny how the poster who most predictably insults every other poster who won't accept change in energy sources, is also the first to claim that our political boundaries are written in stone and will never change.

[jazz]

Zeihan has written about https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=9e03e3be59 Canada post election . Interesting....

There is no modern Canada without Albertan and Saskatchewan financial strength, and there is no Albertan and Saskatchewan financial strength without the two provinces’ energy sectors. Now, with the Liberals needing Green/NDP support to rule, the already-deep political split is taking on more ideological, more hostile overtones.

The Canadian system is splitting along provincial, economic, demographic and ideological lines, and there is no one in the Trump administration who likes Justin Trudeau personally, ideologically or politically. Add in a now-unrestrained America, an America who sees Canada as a competitor, an America who sees the Canadian government as a mix of annoying and ungrateful and self-righteous, and a complete role-reversal is fully in play. Unless the Canadians can get their shit together, it will be eeeeeeasy for Washington to start cutting deals with individual Canadian provinces to hammer preexisting wedges ever-deeper into the Canadian system.

Alberta has the means and motive to destroy Canada. Washington has the means and motive to destroy Canada. And the likely format of the new Trudeau government is providing the opportunity.

[chuckChuck]

Line 3 and the Keystone XL are being held up in the US. Trudeau is committed to building the TMX 2.

This notion that pipelines to improve market access are not moving forward because of Trudeau is an outright lie.

Alberta is experiencing a big downturn because the price of crude and gas has fallen. World benchmark prices for crude have fallen around 20% in the last 10 months or so. Most of the oil sands were and are not economic at such low prices.

Natural Gas prices have fallen because of a glut of natural gas in north america.

Alberta's issues are mostly the result of world supply and demand and a huge growth in oil and gas production in the USA.

The Western Select price differential is part market access and partly a quality issue.

Alberta loves to blame Trudeau for their economic misfortunes.

Who in their right mind thought oil would stay above a $100 per barrel and the boom would last for very long?

As I said before, the oil industry loves to invest when the price is high but quickly leaves town when the price falls.

Take the profits and run.

And blame someone else for your misfortune and mismanagement!

[furrowtickler]

Line 3 and the Keystone XL are being held up in the US. Trudeau is committed to building the TMX 2.

This notion that pipelines to improve market access are not moving forward because of Trudeau is an outright lie.

Alberta is experiencing a big downturn because the price of crude and gas has fallen. World benchmark prices for crude have fallen around 20% in the last 10 months or so. Most of the oil sands were and are not economic at such low prices.

Natural Gas prices have fallen because of a glut of natural gas in north america.

Alberta's issues are mostly the result of world supply and demand and a huge growth in oil and gas production in the USA.

The Western Select price differential is part market access and partly a quality issue.

Alberta loves to blame Trudeau for their economic misfortunes.

Who in their right mind thought oil would stay above a $100 per barrel and the boom would last for very long?

As I said before, the oil industry loves to invest when the price is high but quickly leaves town when the price falls.

Take the profits and run.

And blame someone else for your misfortune and mismanagement!

Time will tell if Trudeau does anything with that pipeline.
He might as well look at a struggling farm still with harvest to go right now , buy his / her combine . Say hey 👋 I helped them out , I bought the combine . But in the meantime take the combine, park it in the shed and take the keys before the harvest gets finished.
He would just say hey , I bought the combine of a struggling farmer .. I am a hero , I helped them out . Then it snows and harvest is over

[jazz]

As I said before, the oil industry loves to invest when the price is high but quickly leaves town when the price falls.

Take the profits and run.

And blame someone else for your misfortune and mismanagement!

You don't know jack about oil or even your own country. The pipelines to tidewater, TMX, EE and NG would have added at lest $10 to the price differential because the product would be pointed at multiple markets. With Venezuela crude dropping off it was the perfect opportunity to grab market share.

They aren't just trying to move the oil, they are trying to increase its value. And Trudeau blocked that with his stupid bills, carbon tax. TMX is NOT built, not even close.

[6V53]

Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
As I said before, the oil industry loves to invest when the price is high but quickly leaves town when the price falls.

Take the profits and run.

And blame someone else for your misfortune and mismanagement!



So Chuck why the ***ck does Quebec need a transfer payment every ****king year ?

[furrowtickler]

Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
As I said before, the oil industry loves to invest when the price is high but quickly leaves town when the price falls.

Take the profits and run.

And blame someone else for your misfortune and mismanagement!



So Chuck why the ***ck does Quebec need a transfer payment every ****king year ?

Quebec is like a bad drug addict ..... they need serious rehab

[fjlip]

Just like WELFARE, you,your family get hooked and it's real HARD to get off the free money and get off your ASS, and contribute to society or Kebec to Canada!

[6V53]

I'll answer the question for you Chuck. Revenue Quebec collects the income tax, encourages their citizens to cheat when they file,then they can get Albertans to top up their *****ng incomes every year.

[LEP]

Line 3 and the Keystone XL are being held up in the US. Trudeau is committed to building the TMX 2.

This notion that pipelines to improve market access are not moving forward because of Trudeau is an outright lie.

Alberta is experiencing a big downturn because the price of crude and gas has fallen. World benchmark prices for crude have fallen around 20% in the last 10 months or so. Most of the oil sands were and are not economic at such low prices.

Natural Gas prices have fallen because of a glut of natural gas in north america.

Alberta's issues are mostly the result of world supply and demand and a huge growth in oil and gas production in the USA.


The Western Select price differential is part market access and partly a quality issue.

Alberta loves to blame Trudeau for their economic misfortunes.

Who in their right mind thought oil would stay above a $100 per barrel and the boom would last for very long?

As I said before, the oil industry loves to invest when the price is high but quickly leaves town when the price falls.

Take the profits and run.

And blame someone else for your misfortune and mismanagement!

TMX 2 reduces that differential substantially. How much more profitable would your farm be if canola was 20 to 25% higher?

The next thing is an LNG pipeline to the coast as most of the world would love another source of LNG over Russia.

All this adds billions to the federal treasury to pay for Jagmeet’s drugs or Justin’s green energy wants.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Zeihan has written about https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=9e03e3be59 Canada post election . Interesting....

There is no modern Canada without Albertan and Saskatchewan financial strength, and there is no Albertan and Saskatchewan financial strength without the two provinces’ energy sectors. Now, with the Liberals needing Green/NDP support to rule, the already-deep political split is taking on more ideological, more hostile overtones.

The Canadian system is splitting along provincial, economic, demographic and ideological lines, and there is no one in the Trump administration who likes Justin Trudeau personally, ideologically or politically. Add in a now-unrestrained America, an America who sees Canada as a competitor, an America who sees the Canadian government as a mix of annoying and ungrateful and self-righteous, and a complete role-reversal is fully in play. Unless the Canadians can get their shit together, it will be eeeeeeasy for Washington to start cutting deals with individual Canadian provinces to hammer preexisting wedges ever-deeper into the Canadian system.

Alberta has the means and motive to destroy Canada. Washington has the means and motive to destroy Canada. And the likely format of the new Trudeau government is providing the opportunity.

And the other very important take away:

Second, the Americans are likely to take both notice and action

And I would argue that they already are and have been for some time, and that most of what the useful idiots in the green movement and Ottawa are doing is because of this notice. All playing out the way it was intended. Except this way we will have no leverage left when we finally join, just desperation.

[helmsdale]

Danielle Smith has this guy booked for Monday. Should be interesting.