Markets- soybeans, canola,corn, wheat

[Oilking]

Figured I'd start a marketing thread. Where are the futures and cash prices headed in the next month two? Macdon, Farming 101, Errol, feel free to post I like reading your analysis on the markets

[fjlip]

I would guess canola sideways at the least bad due to farmers delivering tough/high green seed, jamming up the system. Wheat, well trade hoping other harvests are big to offset poor ones. See if US gets the corn off.

[Oliver88]

Can wheat for any lower?
I’m thinking get it dried and padlock bins for a while.

I seem to agree with Fjlip regarding canola deliveries.

[Herc]

Short term pain, long term anyones guess.

Take a number, get in line, KY supplied at point of entry.....

[seldomseen]

Canola hasn't moved with all the crap that has happened this fall so i am not sure what it would take to move it. I see Bunge at Nipawin has a negative basis of over 50 for fall dev so you know they aren't having any trouble getting canola on the driveway.

[malleefarmer]

Eu and Black Sea have large supplies will account for any shortfalls in Argie Canada Australia.

As always corn is king will affect direction of all markets

[macdon02]

Figured I'd start a marketing thread. Where are the futures and cash prices headed in the next month two? Macdon, Farming 101, Errol, feel free to post I like reading your analysis on the markets

The seasonals are running inverted at present, what should of been a harvest low, produced a high here in Oct. Until these straighten out its further to the downside. Im showing a February low. Sold out on '19 production a little early here left $10 on the table. Sold 40 bushels of '20 expected production and looking to reown in Feb around $400 at the moment. See where we end up in Feb. It's getting almost predictable, meaning we should shift on the seasonals within the next 6~months. Im wrong if we close over 479

[macdon02]

Reowning in Feb is less of a getting greedy strategy as it is covering any shortage in production due to incoming drought or frost. Might not do all the bushels but looking at half ~. $10.60 was too good to pass up on clearfield in this environment. If i grow 40+ then it's just a double win. I was seriously considering no canola for '20 but it would skew my rotation.

[macdon02]

Can wheat for any lower?
I’m thinking get it dried and padlock bins for a while.

I seem to agree with Fjlip regarding canola deliveries.

On Minneapolis, I'm watching Chicago for guidance. Nothing much happening till the new year, then i would want July futures somehow if you don't want to use a brokerage account. Really need Chicago to close over 535 roughly, we were close last December. There's a story but it'll take time. CAD should top out at 78 then reverse. Look to move on Feb/ March delivery but roll into July. I grew zero wheat this year so I'm just at the top of the bleachers. We need uzzdah to have the come to jesus moment and say we have a problem. They won't do it overnight. Baby steps.

[malleefarmer]

On Minneapolis, I'm watching Chicago for guidance. Nothing much happening till the new year, then i would want July futures somehow if you don't want to use a brokerage account. Really need Chicago to close over 535 roughly, we were close last December. There's a story but it'll take time. CAD should top out at 78 then reverse. Look to move on Feb/ March delivery but roll into July. I grew zero wheat this year so I'm just at the top of the bleachers. We need uzzdah to have the come to jesus moment and say we have a problem. They won't do it overnight. Baby steps.

Really thought 550 would be touched a few weeks back dreaming as usual

[TechAnalyst]

I respectfully disagree with Macdon (but that is what makes a market I guess).

During years when stocks are tight or tightening, harvest lows are often put in early. Small crops get smaller. On the other hand, big crops tend to get bigger so harvest lows are often put in late in those years.

Given this years’ adversities, I expect the former will be the case and the lows seen in late August and early September for most markets should mark the harvest lows.

In the case of soybeans, the ending stocks for 2019/20 are currently forecast by the USDA to be 460 mil bu. That is a huge reduction from the 2018/19 stocks that had been predicted to be over 1 bil bu by the USDA as recently as September. (The final 18/19 carryover ended up at 913 mil bu) The new crop estimate will almost certainly fall further due to the intense October snow storm and frost event.

The daily charts suggest the pullback in October may merely have been profit taking once combines began to roll and another push higher is close by. In the case of Jan soybeans, it looks as if resistance at $9.60/bu should fail with an eventual target of $10.16/bu attainable. Keep in mind, as recently as March of 2018, soybeans hit $10.82 when final carryover for 17/18 was 438 mil bu. Given we may see an ending stock estimate lower than that for 19/20 as early as the Nov 8th update, the target is certainly within reason. Such a move would likely spill over into canola with a rally up to the $492 area possible, especially given the recent strength in palm and soybean oil.

With the tightening stocks of corn and the various chart formations for that market, I expect feed grains and wheat will follow the same pattern (of prices firming throughout the fall).

[furrowtickler]

I read recently that wheat plantings are at lowest in over 100 years. Anyone confirm that ?

[macdon02]

I read recently that wheat plantings are at lowest in over 100 years. Anyone confirm that ?

Last year, yes.

[Sodbuster]

So with the lower wheat planting numbers, and what looks like a pile of feed wheat coming off this fall and next spring in Canada and the US, why is Chicago wheat gaining ground on MPLS wheat? Is there a abundance of good quality somewhere?

[farmaholic]

I read recently that wheat plantings are at lowest in over 100 years. Anyone confirm that ?

If that is indeed true, we are producing ourselves into the poor house. Is there such a thing as doing too good a job?