Markets ignoring unharvested crops on prairies

[Oilking]

There is a fairly significant percentage of crops still out there that won't get combined. Is it really not that big of a deal? Was in southern Manitoba yesterday and there's field after field of soybeans left. Also seen still lots of canola and even wheat out there. Is this really not enough to trigger a good rally ?

[bigzee]

There is a fairly significant percentage of crops still out there that won't get combined. Is it really not that big of a deal? Was in southern Manitoba yesterday and there's field after field of soybeans left. Also seen still lots of canola and even wheat out there. Is this really not enough to trigger a good rally ?

Not when bins are full of carry over, and demand is stagnant.

[Partners]

There is enough harvested to meet demand.
Same old story.

[helmsdale]

Im reminded of where prices were prior to harvest...

Canola sub 10, with some saying it was heading below 9. It actually did go below 9 in a few locations here locally.

Durum was sub 7.

Wheat was sub 6 with ZERO effective return for high quality. In many cases, it was trailing the feed market!



Perhaps the only thing keeping prices completely out of the gutter this year is the fact that there is still crop in the field?

[fjlip]

Farmer selling = price ceiling... wait them out or feed the bastards, probably June sometime IF, IF quality/ quantity is proven short supply, taking the whole world's numbers of course!

[the big wheel]

We re getting screwed more then we ever did?
Has canola oil gone down? Beer? Bread? No everyone else reaping in profits we re getting hosed by everyone including the government and opposition we so proudly put in place.

But but but we have to save the oil industry we have to save the oil industry and that will fix all the ag problems?????

[bucket]

Yup and it's because you hear your representatives say it's a open market or their organization doesn't set the price....

There is no open market currently in any commodity....it's how much can they steal....

The US market is subsidized and there is no market exchange for peas lentils flax durum mustard etc.....but there is a market for taking checkoffs. ...where a few set the checkoff tax....

[woodland]

Not when bins are full of carry over, and demand is stagnant.

Bugger all for carryover around here. Most people cleaned everything out in the summer because everything was projected to be going downhill.

[poorboy]

Demand is an all year event. They don't need all the grain right now. If the crop does not come off and supplies get tight the market will rally later on in the crop year (ie next spring and summer).

If you look at a smaller market like feed barley, it takes a price dive at harvest from all the extra supply and often rallies into the following summer as sellers and supply disappear.

[tweety]

There is a fairly significant percentage of crops still out there that won't get combined. Is it really not that big of a deal? Was in southern Manitoba yesterday and there's field after field of soybeans left. Also seen still lots of canola and even wheat out there. Is this really not enough to trigger a good rally ?

Reality is its less then 10% and the yields are up. So no, not a big deal at all.

[malleefarmer]

Australian crop downsizing a little again drought lingers on.

No summer crops planted yet in those areas that do due to lack of rain.

Feed grain hay easing weekly price wise. Down to $250 on farm feed barley. The ever present threat of imports from Black Sea for feed and Canada to supply premium markets.

But funny combines starting to roll bit of supply about demand and prices ease. Full throttle in about 2 weeks.

Canadian harvest woes make rural news here and suggested wheat will not fall away until tonnages and quality out of Canada are known.

[malleefarmer]

Canola easing here

[Braveheart]

Black Sea wheat just keeps selling. I don't know anything about the cost structure of Russian or Ukrainian farms but they seem to be able to sell wheat at these prices.

Or, (conspiracy theory) this could all part of the new non gun warfare the world is engaging in. Cyber crime, election influencing, hacks everywhere and, attacking the west through agriculture. Black Sea wheat takes out North American and Aus wheat. Chinese tariffs and trading practices takes out the oilseeds.

[bucket]

Black Sea wheat just keeps selling. I don't know anything about the cost structure of Russian or Ukrainian farms but they seem to be able to sell wheat at these prices.

Or, (conspiracy theory) this could all part of the new non gun warfare the world is engaging in. Cyber crime, election influencing, hacks everywhere and, attacking the west through agriculture. Black Sea wheat takes out North American and Aus wheat. Chinese tariffs and trading practices takes out the oilseeds.

Russia and the FSU actually put money into agricultural infrastructure that allows them to have a lower cost to port....and they have decided to want farmers because its a good return for the country....


In other words they are kicking our ass in international markets .....and its in a form of subsidies...they have what we would call the crow rate...

[Hopalong]

Most grains and oilseed futures show pretty good carry in deferred months.
Indication that growers are selling.
Oats is exception but maybe disfunctional futures market.