Markets ignoring unharvested crops on prairies

[malleefarmer]

Australian crop downsizing a little again drought lingers on.

No summer crops planted yet in those areas that do due to lack of rain.

Feed grain hay easing weekly price wise. Down to $250 on farm feed barley. The ever present threat of imports from Black Sea for feed and Canada to supply premium markets.

But funny combines starting to roll bit of supply about demand and prices ease. Full throttle in about 2 weeks.

Canadian harvest woes make rural news here and suggested wheat will not fall away until tonnages and quality out of Canada are known.

[malleefarmer]

Canola easing here

[Braveheart]

Black Sea wheat just keeps selling. I don't know anything about the cost structure of Russian or Ukrainian farms but they seem to be able to sell wheat at these prices.

Or, (conspiracy theory) this could all part of the new non gun warfare the world is engaging in. Cyber crime, election influencing, hacks everywhere and, attacking the west through agriculture. Black Sea wheat takes out North American and Aus wheat. Chinese tariffs and trading practices takes out the oilseeds.

[bucket]

Black Sea wheat just keeps selling. I don't know anything about the cost structure of Russian or Ukrainian farms but they seem to be able to sell wheat at these prices.

Or, (conspiracy theory) this could all part of the new non gun warfare the world is engaging in. Cyber crime, election influencing, hacks everywhere and, attacking the west through agriculture. Black Sea wheat takes out North American and Aus wheat. Chinese tariffs and trading practices takes out the oilseeds.

Russia and the FSU actually put money into agricultural infrastructure that allows them to have a lower cost to port....and they have decided to want farmers because its a good return for the country....


In other words they are kicking our ass in international markets .....and its in a form of subsidies...they have what we would call the crow rate...

[Hopalong]

Most grains and oilseed futures show pretty good carry in deferred months.
Indication that growers are selling.
Oats is exception but maybe disfunctional futures market.

[Hopalong]

Unharvested crop puts our crop insurance and agristability programs in a position likely to attract more criticism from chronic complainers.
If they pay out before crop is harvested and later it turns out the loss was not great they have to ask for money back.
If they wait to pay then they are condemned for that.
No easy answers except to ask for understanding from growers.

[farmaholic]

Unharvested crop puts our crop insurance and agristability programs in a position likely to attract more criticism from chronic complainers.
If they pay out before crop is harvested and later it turns out the loss was not great they have to ask for money back.
If they wait to pay then they are condemned for that.
No easy answers except to ask for understanding from growers.

As tough as this harvest has been with lost volume and value....I seriously doubt we will be in a claim position.
But how would I know anyway when program administration sets the crop values used in the calculations.
I'm pretty darn greatful that I won't be in a claim position because that would mean the results of the 2019 crop were CATASTROPHIC "for us".