A note to Western Canada: The rest of the country understands tough economic times

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Quote from Trudeau:

“We can’t shut down the oilsands tomorrow. We need to phase them out. We need to manage the transition off of our dependence on fossil fuels but it’s going to take time and in the meantime we have to manage that transition,”

Quote from Gerald Butts (Puppet master):

“Truth be told, we don’t think there ought to be a carbon-based energy industry by the middle of this century. That’s our policy in Canada and it’s our policy all over the world…

We think the oilsands have been expanded too rapidly without a serious plan for environmental remediation in the first place. So, that’s why we don’t think it’s up to us to decide whether there should be another route for a pipeline because the real alternative is not an alternative route – it’s an alternative economy.”

Would you invest in an industry in a country where the two most powerful people make statements such as that?

[blackpowder]

And I'm sure the exact same carbon footprint study is placed on imported Middle East oil and it's transportation as was our own.
Good thing keebec got it's hydro projects built (to export power outside the equalization formula) before the rules were applied to everyone else.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You're the one playing with words as a deflection from answering the question. AB is hurting because oil demand and prices slumped globally. AB has market access, the same access they had through the last oil boom when they were printing and spending money like there was no tomorrow. What they are wanting now is increased capacity to ship more product to the world market that is still suffering reduced demand and prices. They want to sell more for less, and make it up on volume which is not a smart strategy at the best of times.

Grassfarmer, we don't always agree, but normally you stick to the facts and make bulletproof, well researched points. But you have obviously been spending too much time with Chuck, if you somehow think that oil demand has been reduced or slumped. He seems to post at least once a week about the collapsing oil and fossil fuel demand, yet reality is it keeps on growing, oblivious to all the dire forecasts of the likes of Chuck.

This story has nothing to do with reduced demand, it is all about who is filling the increased demand( hint, it is not us with no increased export capacity). And that demand is increasing in no small part due to the decline in prices, exactly the way free market predicts it would.

[Guest]

Between 2007 and 2017, Statistics Canada figures show that Canada imported a total of $20.9 billion of Saudi Arabian petroleum oils. For context, this is almost precisely what Canada spends on its military per year. It's also way more than the expected $15.7 billion cost of the Energy East pipeline.

this is all good right ? chuck, dml?
you guys ****en amaze me

[blackpowder]

It's about living under a "do as I say, not as I do" regime for generations

[Guest]

And I'm sure the exact same carbon footprint study is placed on imported Middle East oil and it's transportation as was our own.
Good thing keebec got it's hydro projects built (to export power outside the equalization formula) before the rules were applied to everyone else.

yea and i bet he goes there and tells them how they should treat "their" women
like the airhead did in china to our canola/wheat/etc. customers

[blackpowder]

Actually Freeland tweeted something and no more barley sales, but we need your oil..

[flea beetle]

Actually Freeland tweeted something and no more barley sales, but we need your oil..

Oh yeah...so many F ups I forgot about that one. Amazing how these people get into the positions they are in.

[grassfarmer]

This story has nothing to do with reduced demand, it is all about who is filling the increased demand( hint, it is not us with no increased export capacity). And that demand is increasing in no small part due to the decline in prices, exactly the way free market predicts it would.

I guess you didn't bother to read my link above?

Here is the relevant part to address your claims:

"Pessimism is very apparent from both oil producers and the oilfield service companies. In the most recent quarterly survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, anonymous comments from industry executives revealed a deep sense of anxiety. “U.S. oil production is about to fall significantly. The rig count has declined dramatically from one year ago (down 170 rigs), and our customers are not completing wells in order to save cash flow. This all equals a big shift down,” one executive said..................

.......The problem for the industry is that WTI is lower than it was a few months ago, and the prospect of a rebound is also questionable. The global economy continues to weaken, and successive cuts to demand forecasts are coming on a monthly basis. OPEC just lowered its demand numbers for the third month in a row, although only by a modest 40,000 bpd.

As Reuters notes, industrial demand has declined as the economy has weakened. Consumption of natural gas and diesel is off because of a recession sweeping over the manufacturing sector. U.S. oil production is not growing at the blistering rate that many analysts had expected, but it has flattened out at a time when demand has contracted."

[Oliver88]

Between 2007 and 2017, Statistics Canada figures show that Canada imported a total of $20.9 billion of Saudi Arabian petroleum oils. For context, this is almost precisely what Canada spends on its military per year. It's also way more than the expected $15.7 billion cost of the Energy East pipeline.

this is all good right ? chuck, dml?
you guys ****en amaze me

Lol....those two pro-carbon taxers are happy to see oil shipped from Saudi Arabia to New Brunswick.....instead of having an Energy East Pipeline (which would of been financed by private investment).

[Integrity_Farmer]

Tar-sands economics don't add up
Tar-sands oil is too expensive.
"Say you had the most expensive oil in the world, and it was landlocked in northern Alberta. Put it this way, every source of oil in the world is cheaper — much cheaper. According to Rystad Energy oil analysts, the average tar-sands project won't even break even on the cost of getting it out of the ground unless international oil prices rise to $83 per barrel and stay there. In contrast, the average U.S. fracked oil well will break even with oil prices at $46 per barrel. That's the reality".
http://www.startribune.com/tar-sands-economics-don-t-add-up/510994192/?

[Integrity_Farmer]

The trans Mountain pipeline is a farce\pipe dream. The current TM pipeline has shipped only 10 tankers this year, about 10% to 15% of its capacity.

From the article
'The Westridge Terminal is currently capable of loading over 100 Aframax or 200 Panamax tankers per year. So far this year, the rate is only one per month. And on average, only 30 to 40 tankers a year are loaded, with virtually all of them heading to California, according to Huntley’s research. He notes, “It has been rare for Kinder Morgan to exceed 50 percent of [Westridge’s] loading capacity, and in 2016 and 2017 it was using less than 15 percent of its loading capacity.”
and
“California is where most oil tankers are headed,” says Huntley. He tells me only 20 crude oil tankers have left Westridge for China since 2014. Twelve of these were in late 2018 when the Canadian crude price was as low as $11 US per barrel due to a glut of oil in Alberta."

https://www.focusonvictoria.ca/focus-magazine-sept-oct-2019/is-there-any-demand-for-alberta-bitumen-in-asia-r11/?

[bucket]

The trans Mountain pipeline is a farce\pipe dream. The current TM pipeline has shipped only 10 tankers this year, about 10% to 15% of its capacity.

From the article
'The Westridge Terminal is currently capable of loading over 100 Aframax or 200 Panamax tankers per year. So far this year, the rate is only one per month. And on average, only 30 to 40 tankers a year are loaded, with virtually all of them heading to California, according to Huntley’s research. He notes, “It has been rare for Kinder Morgan to exceed 50 percent of [Westridge’s] loading capacity, and in 2016 and 2017 it was using less than 15 percent of its loading capacity.”
and
“California is where most oil tankers are headed,” says Huntley. He tells me only 20 crude oil tankers have left Westridge for China since 2014. Twelve of these were in late 2018 when the Canadian crude price was as low as $11 US per barrel due to a glut of oil in Alberta."

https://www.focusonvictoria.ca/focus-magazine-sept-oct-2019/is-there-any-demand-for-alberta-bitumen-in-asia-r11/?

Then it would seem someone didn't do any due diligence for 4.5 billion.....???????

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I guess you didn't bother to read my link above?

Here is the relevant part to address your claims:

"Pessimism is very apparent from both oil producers and the oilfield service companies. In the most recent quarterly survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, anonymous comments from industry executives revealed a deep sense of anxiety. “U.S. oil production is about to fall significantly. The rig count has declined dramatically from one year ago (down 170 rigs), and our customers are not completing wells in order to save cash flow. This all equals a big shift down,” one executive said..................

.......The problem for the industry is that WTI is lower than it was a few months ago, and the prospect of a rebound is also questionable. The global economy continues to weaken, and successive cuts to demand forecasts are coming on a monthly basis. OPEC just lowered its demand numbers for the third month in a row, although only by a modest 40,000 bpd.

As Reuters notes, industrial demand has declined as the economy has weakened. Consumption of natural gas and diesel is off because of a recession sweeping over the manufacturing sector. U.S. oil production is not growing at the blistering rate that many analysts had expected, but it has flattened out at a time when demand has contracted."

Yes, I did read it, but I had read the OPEC report prior to that, so was able to put your article into context. After reading it, I certainly understand how one could come away with the impression that oil demand is actually falling.

I don't know whether the author worded it so as part of an agenda, or out of gross ignorance, but the reality is that demand growthis slowing, not actual demand. As the OPEC report makes very clear.

This is like saying that your calves were expected to grow 2.5 lbs per day in November, same as last year, but that growth forecast has been revised down to 2.0 lbs per day due to inclimate weather. They will still be heavier on Dec 1, but not as heavy as originally forecasted.

The industry is doing exactly what any commodity industry does. Right now, it is a victim of its own success, with over production. Efficiency gains have been coming so fast and furious that break even keeps dropping( and that applies to our industry too). And the price keeps gyrating around that moving target. Now reaching the low prices cure low prices part of the cycle, as investment is reduced, setting the stage for the next boom cycle. Which we in this country will be completely unprepared to take advantage of. But I wouldn't read too much into rig count numbers, the productivity per well, and the efficiency of drilling has increased so drastically, that comparing rig counts from one year to the next is almost meaningless.

[chuckChuck]

Quote from Trudeau:


Quote from Gerald Butts (Puppet master):

Would you invest in an industry in a country where the two most powerful people make statements such as that?

Some people have a short memory.

In 2015 Prime Minister Harper signed a G7 agreement that Canada would stop burning fossil energy sources by the year 2100. Only 80 years away. Kenney was a cabinet minister at the time!

Trudeau purchased the TMX pipeline to make sure it gets built.

Line 3 and Keystone XL are being held up in the USA. But Enbridge says Line 3 will be running by the second half of 2020.

The US oil industry is also experiencing a slow down.

Petro Canada is investing in EV charging infrastructure across Canada. Why?

In the next decades oil will be replaced to some degree by other forms of energy.

The Bank of America among others see the EV revolution as a a major change to oil markets.

There will be a long transition to cleaner forms of energy. The transition is already happening and will continue to happen because industry and governments are investing in alternatives and reduced carbon emissions.

Conservatives want to stop or slow down the inevitable change because many of their friends and supporters in the oil industry haven't figured out how to make gobs of money from cleaner energy yet.

The smart ones will figure it out and the dumb ones with bad investments will disappear.